The initiation of an innovation engine leads to the diffusion of outcomes across various fields in unexpected ways. From the emergence of DeepSeek in 2025 to the current capabilities of AI agents in tasks like ordering milk tea or serving as secretaries, this rapid innovation cycle was unforeseen, yet the results were inevitable. This phenomenon is driven by the effects of engineering-oriented thinking.
This year, the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, reviewed and discussed during the National People's Congress, outlines 20 major indicators, 16 key strategic tasks, and 109 major projects across six areas. This document serves as a blueprint for economic and social development over the next five years and narrates the new story of China's economy. It addresses the structural transformation of China's economic drivers, answering the fundamental question: Why is there confidence in the economic development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period?
Maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range to achieve growth targets represents a paramount engineering challenge for any economy. According to the draft outline, China's economic growth target for the 15th Five-Year Plan period is set to remain within a reasonable range, with specific annual targets to be determined based on circumstances. This approach aims to lay the foundation for doubling the per capita GDP from 2020 levels by 2035, reaching the status of a moderately developed country. The growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with efforts to achieve even better results in practice.
From an engineering perspective, the 2026 growth target is both ambitious and pragmatic, balancing aspiration with stability. It aligns with the long-term vision for 2035 while allowing sufficient room for structural adjustments, risk prevention, and reform promotion this year. Liu Shangxi, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and vice president of the China Macroeconomics Society, noted that while growth targets were previously specific numbers in a more predictable environment, setting an interval for the growth target this year is an innovation that reflects practicality and aligns with current trends and characteristics.
Sustaining growth within a reasonable range and fully unleashing economic potential rely on the steady improvement of total factor productivity, a significant increase in the household consumption rate, and the continuous enhancement of domestic demand as the primary driver of economic growth. These factors explain the dynamics behind reasonable economic growth.
China possesses the world's most comprehensive industrial system. How can it continue to leverage the advantages of this industry-driven system? In fact, the prominence of the "new trio"—new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products—is being surpassed by the "new new trio"—artificial intelligence, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals. This shift demonstrates the breadth and depth of China's industrial system.
At the 2025 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, robots from Yushu Technology received widespread acclaim. By 2026, multiple domestic humanoid robots were competing on the same stage. Magic Atom's robot performed a standard Thomas flare, Yushu Technology's robot executed high-difficulty martial arts alongside actors, while Songyan Power and Galaxy General robots demonstrated elderly companionship and home service functions, respectively.
The surge in Chinese technological innovation sparked by DeepSeek in 2025 was not short-lived but has spread across various fields. It is foreseeable that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, several high-growth industries will emerge, forming markets worth trillions of yuan or even larger, driving the industrial system from large to strong.
Guided by engineering thinking, China will build a sequential development framework for emerging industries through incremental creation and stock potential tapping, comprising strategic emerging industries, emerging pillar industries, and future industries. This framework focuses on current strengths, such as新一代信息技术 and new energy; mid-term goals, including integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, low-altitude economy, new energy storage, and intelligent robotics as six emerging pillar industries; and long-term prospects, such as quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, green hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G as six future industries.
China is further integrating its institutional advantages, market scale, industrial prowess, and talent pool to promote comprehensive innovation systematically. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing will take shape, contributing significantly to global industrial economic development.
New demands and consumption patterns are continuously emerging. At a press conference on people's livelihoods held on March 7, Sun Yeli, Minister of Culture and Tourism, shared an anecdote: seven foreign tourists purchased 40 boxes of Chinese goods upon departure from Shanghai. Despite overweight fees, they benefited from tax refund policies, making it cost-effective.
China's complete industrial system and vast domestic market create a unique "large-scale advantage." Leveraging massive data and diverse application scenarios, related industries are forming a virtuous cycle of economies of scale and increasing returns through "learning by doing," an engineering mindset.
In terms of scale, China's consumer market ranked second globally during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with total retail sales exceeding 40 and 50 trillion yuan. When measured by purchasing power parity, it is already the world's largest. Structurally, household consumption shows trend changes, with more green and smart products entering daily life, and strong growth in service consumption, particularly experiential spending. People are willing to pay for new experiences, hobbies, and health.
During the recent extended Spring Festival holiday, both outbound "travel-style celebrations" and hometown "celebration-style travel" were highly popular. Not only were major scenic spots crowded, but local tourism also boosted county-level attractions, bringing unexpected visitor numbers to small cities. "Reverse reunions," where parents travel to major cities to visit their children, evolved from a niche trend to a mainstream practice. Third-party data indicated that during the 2026 Spring Festival, 18% of passengers flying to Beijing were over 50 years old, with those aged 60 and above increasing by over 10% compared to 2025, many experiencing their first flight.
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, how can the issue of "strong supply but weak demand" be fundamentally addressed? Where is the potential for significantly increasing the proportion of household consumption in GDP? Removing market barriers is essential. Full competition is vital for enterprise development and resource allocation in a market economy, helping淘汰低效企业, optimize resources, and enhance overall industry efficiency.
Recent "small-cut" reforms have achieved significant benefits. These incremental social engineering efforts, building on China's strong institutional advantages, deepen reforms and foster healthier, more dynamic social development. By improving rules, maintaining order, and optimizing facilities, systems for产权保护, market access, information disclosure, social credit, mergers and acquisitions, and market exit are being enhanced. Regional regulatory rules and standards are becoming more unified, local investment promotion measures are being refined, and anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition enforcement are strengthening. The construction of high-standard market facilities is accelerating, with better connectivity in logistics, market information, and trading platforms. These reforms expedite the development of a unified national market and smooth domestic circulation.
When per capita GDP reaches the level of a moderately developed country, overcoming the "middle-technology trap" is necessary. Amid the current wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, China must advance high-level self-reliance in science and technology.
"NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly stated last May, 'China is doing a fantastic job. Fifty percent of the world's AI researchers are Chinese. You cannot stop them from advancing AI development. They are not just Chinese AI researchers; they are world-class AI researchers.'"
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, what underpins confidence in high-level self-reliance in science and technology? How can new research paradigms be developed to keep pace with the times? Under intense international competition, the importance of efficient and effective research paradigms is growing. The mechanism of organized research—a unique advantage of China's scientific system—is particularly prominent now. Collaborative and efficient research efforts are cultivating top-tier scientific talent and innovation teams, leading to interdisciplinary breakthroughs that strengthen the strategic foundation of basic research and original innovation.
In前沿领域 like artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, life sciences, new energy, and quantum technology, pilot programs are exploring new mechanisms and models for independent talent cultivation. For instance, in integrated circuits, the "one student, one chip" plan ensures that each graduate student gains design and manufacturing capabilities, providing a foundation for industrial practice and innovation.
In the era of the智能经济, the paradigm of innovation-driven development is being reshaped. In the 1950s, Vannevar Bush's "Science: The Endless Frontier" established the classic innovation chain from science to technology to market. However, today's intense international competition, rapidly evolving technologies, and unpredictable market demands require collaborative innovation and iterative cycles involving government, industry, academia, and finance to truly cross the "valley of death" in innovation.
The integrated advancement of education, science, and technology epitomizes this new innovation paradigm. This year, China will formulate a plan for their integrated development, establish coordination mechanisms, and strengthen planning衔接, policy synergy, resource allocation, and evaluation linkage—essentially creating a flywheel effect for innovation.
An open China fosters a modern China. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's exports accounted for over 14% of the world total, with goods trade leading for nine consecutive years. Service trade and two-way investment remained top globally, cumulative实际使用外资 exceeded $700 billion, and high-tech industries attracted nearly one-third of foreign investment in 2025.
On December 18, 2025, Hainan officially launched island-wide customs closure operations. The process has been smooth, with over 11,000 new entities benefiting from policies. The proportion of "zero-tariff" items jumped from 21% before closure to 74%, with specific goods increasing from 1,900 to over 6,600 types.
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, uncertain international conditions will not dampen China's confidence in building a higher-level open economy. Adhering to open cooperation and mutual benefit is essential for Chinese modernization. Efforts in this宏大工程 will become more substantial and detailed.
China's openness continues to expand, as shown by its track record: the negative list for foreign investment has been reduced to 29 items, with restrictions in manufacturing完全清零. Chen Lei, Director of the Development Strategy and Planning Department at the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a State Council policy briefing on March 7 that下一步 will focus on expanding market access in services, opening up telecommunications, internet, education, culture, and healthcare, advancing pilot zones for服务业扩大开放, and shortening the negative list to give foreign companies "broader" investment space in China.
China's institutional openness is steadily expanding, RMB internationalization is progressing, and two-way investment cooperation is有序拓展. China's economic development now extends beyond national borders, gradually shifting from the "Chinese economy" to the "economy of the Chinese people." As any economy develops, enterprise internationalization becomes inevitable, and China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is no exception.
The "economy of the Chinese people" not only expands China's economic reach but also integrates it more deeply with the global economy. For foreign investors, China offers the world's largest and most comprehensive manufacturing system, serving as a critical link in global supply chains. It boasts a huge consumer market, ideal application scenarios for new technological revolutions, and a steadfast commitment to openness with transparent, stable, and predictable policies. China has been, is, and will continue to be an ideal, secure, and promising investment destination.
The future is here. Focusing on new stages of scientific innovation, the智能经济体, consumption trends,出海新方向, and a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan, we explore the confidence and foundations for China's economic leap forward, clarifying direction amidst change and reinforcing certainty.
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