International copper prices have continued their upward trajectory in 2026. On May 27, the three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at $13,638 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 10%. Domestically, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has risen from approximately ¥92,000 per ton in late March to nearly ¥105,000 per ton.
The surge is primarily attributed to rapidly growing demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and new energy vehicles. Ding Xingchi, Senior Vice President of Ningbo Jintian Copper, a leading global copper processor, stated in an interview that current market demand is robust. Specifically, orders for high-voltage electromagnetic flat wire products for new energy vehicles are already scheduled through the second half of 2027, consuming substantial amounts of raw copper. The company procures approximately 1.9 million tons of primary and recycled copper annually and set a new monthly production record exceeding 190,000 tons in March.
According to data from Shangpu Consulting, copper demand from China's new energy vehicle sector alone is projected to reach 1.84 million tons in 2026 and is expected to surpass 2 million tons in 2027. Additionally, global data center copper consumption is forecast to hit 740,000 tons in 2026 and 1.3 million tons by 2028.
While demand remains strong, supply-side uncertainties persist. Reports indicate that the full resumption of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has been delayed until early 2028, which is expected to reduce global copper concentrate supply by over 100,000 tons in 2026. In Peru, an emergency decree issued due to an energy crisis has prioritized industrial energy supply last, potentially leading to monthly production cuts of around 20,000 tons at major copper mines due to power rationing. Chile, the world's top country in copper reserves, production, and exports, continues to see output decline due to reduced operations at multiple mines, further intensifying raw material supply pressures.
Preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shows that global copper concentrate production fell by 1.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, while refined copper usage overall maintained growth.
Amid this supply-demand mismatch, the global copper market is experiencing a significant "inventory migration." Reports note that on May 22, the LME witnessed over 50,000 tons of copper warrant cancellations in a single day, the largest daily delivery and withdrawal record since 2013. As of that day, cancelled warrants represented 30% of the total LME inventory of 391,900 tons, with available stocks dropping to their lowest level in 10 weeks.
This large-scale withdrawal was triggered by an arbitrage opportunity between COMEX (the New York Mercantile Exchange) and the LME, where the premium for New York copper over London copper once reached nearly $400 per ton. Traders are moving copper to the United States ahead of an anticipated ruling on refined copper import tariffs expected by the end of June.
Beyond robust downstream demand, recent operational disruptions at major global copper mining regions have constrained supply-side capacity. Furthermore, affected by the Middle East situation, the supply of sulfur—a key raw material for copper smelting—has been hindered, exacerbating tightness in the physical copper market and collectively driving prices higher.
UBS recently raised its copper price forecast for 2026 by 13%, setting a target price of $13,200 per ton. The bank noted that ongoing operational disruptions at major mines like Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg, coupled with volatile energy prices, would further reinforce sustained investment demand in renewable energy, grid construction, and manufacturing reshoring.
High copper prices are also directly reflected in the financial statements of mining companies. Disclosed first-quarter reports show that the combined net profit attributable to shareholders of the 16 A-share listed copper companies surged 81.41% year-on-year to ¥36.588 billion.
Lured by high prices, domestic mines are ramping up production. At a large copper mine in Dexing, Jiangxi, operations are running at full capacity 24 hours a day, with a daily mining volume of 130,000 tons. Luo Liming, a relevant person in charge at the Dexing Copper Mine mining site of Jiangxi Copper Corporation, stated that due to high copper prices, low-grade ore previously constrained by cost considerations is now being included in the mining sequence, with an expected utilization exceeding 16 million tons in 2026.
Gu Fengda, Chief Analyst at Guosen Futures, commented that the expansion of emerging industries is driving sustained growth in demand for high-end copper products. The copper processing industry is entering a critical transition period, shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement."
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