Macquarie has released a research report indicating that, based on an unchanged forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for fiscal year 2027, it has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) by 5.9%, from HK$18.7 to HK$19.8, while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. Same-store sales growth for Chow Tai Fook's self-operated stores and franchised stores in Mainland China accelerated from 7.6% and 8.6% in the second fiscal quarter of 2026 to 21.4% and 26.3%, respectively, in the third fiscal quarter; same-store sales growth in Hong Kong and Macau increased from 6.2% to 14.3%. The group's management anticipates that, due to a higher base period, same-store sales growth for the upcoming Lunar New Year will record low to mid-single-digit growth; furthermore, it has raised its full-year revenue and same-store sales growth guidance from low-single-digit and mid-single-digit to low-to-mid-single-digit and mid-to-high-single-digit, respectively. Benefiting from a favorable product mix, rising gold prices, and operational leverage, Macquarie has raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 3.6%, 6%, and 4.5%, respectively; revenue forecasts were slightly raised by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9%; gross profit margin forecasts were raised by 1.0, 0.9, and 0.6 percentage points; and EBIT margin forecasts were raised by 0.3, 0.9, and 0.6 percentage points.
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