Abstract
BlackBerry Limited will release results on December 18, 2025 Post Market, with forecasts indicating revenue of USD 1.37 hundred million and adjusted EPS of USD 0.04 as investors watch margin resilience and segment mix following a high-70s gross margin last quarter.
Market Forecast
Consensus forecasts for BlackBerry Limited’s current quarter point to revenue of USD 1.37 hundred million, a year-over-year decline of 8.36%, adjusted EPS of USD 0.04, and EBIT of USD 22.78 million implying year-over-year growth of 33.18%. While gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance for the current period are not available from the collected data, last quarter’s gross margin of 74.54% provides a reference point for the sustainability of the company’s software-led economics; EPS is forecast to grow 3.85% year over year.
Management disclosures in the prior report frame a quarter where the revenue mix continues to be dominated by software and services. The principal businesses are led by QNX at USD 63.10 million and Secure Communications at USD 59.90 million, with Licensing and IP at USD 6.60 million, supporting a high blended gross margin and stable revenue quality.
The most promising segment by scale and reported momentum remains QNX at USD 63.10 million for the last quarter, given its contribution of 48.69% of segment-reported revenue; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed in the collected dataset.
Last Quarter Review
BlackBerry Limited’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 1.30 hundred million, a gross profit margin of 74.54%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 13.30 million, a net profit margin of 10.26%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.04; revenue declined 10.62% year over year and adjusted EPS was flat year over year at 0.00%.
A notable highlight was profitability inflection on a sequential basis: GAAP net profit quarter-on-quarter growth reached 600.00%, while EBIT of USD 22.40 million rose 6.60% year over year, underscoring operating leverage from a higher software mix. Main business performance remained concentrated in software-led lines: QNX contributed USD 63.10 million (48.69% of revenue), Secure Communications contributed USD 59.90 million (46.22%), and Licensing and IP delivered USD 6.60 million (5.09%); year-over-year segment growth rates were not available.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Software and Services Performance
The current quarter hinges on the durability of BlackBerry Limited’s software-heavy revenue mix and the sustainability of high-70s gross margins observed last quarter. Given the forecast revenue of USD 1.37 hundred million and adjusted EPS of USD 0.04, the market is pricing in modest operating expansion versus last year even as top-line contracts year over year by 8.36%. That combination implies an expectation for margin resilience, with EBIT forecast to advance 33.18% year over year to USD 22.78 million, which would signal improved cost discipline and favorable mix effects. The absence of a forecasted gross margin from the collected data places more weight on the last quarter’s gross margin of 74.54% as a benchmark; maintaining a margin profile near that level is central to the EPS trajectory.
Revenue mix matters for this quarter’s performance narrative. The prior quarter’s contributions show QNX and Secure Communications collectively comprising 94.91% of revenue, which naturally drives blended margin. If the mix skews toward higher-margin software and services, adjusted EPS can meet or slightly exceed the USD 0.04 expectation even if revenue lands near the guided range. Conversely, any shift toward lower-margin components or any delay in larger software deal closures could increase the gap between revenue delivery and EPS conversion, given the sensitivity of high-margin software models to timing of billings and revenue recognition.
Cash and profitability metrics also turn on operating efficiency this quarter. The previous quarter’s net profit margin of 10.26% and strong sequential swing in GAAP profitability suggest that expense timing and productivity gains played a meaningful role. To deliver the forecasted EBIT uplift, management will likely need to hold the line on discretionary spend and continue the efficiency measures that supported the last quarter’s 74.54% gross margin. In this context, investors are likely to focus on whether operating expenses track in line with the revenue run-rate implied by consensus, which would enable EBIT growth to outpace the top-line trajectory.
QNX Momentum and Revenue Conversion
QNX remains the largest revenue line at USD 63.10 million and is positioned to influence both top-line and margin outcomes in the current quarter. Because QNX reported 48.69% of last quarter revenue, relatively small changes in its quarterly revenue can create meaningful swings in consolidated gross margin and EBIT. The forecast profile—an 8.36% year-over-year revenue decline alongside a 33.18% EBIT increase—implicitly assumes QNX and other software-derived revenue maintain or improve their gross margin impact, allowing operating profit to expand despite a lower top-line compare.
The most important operational factor for QNX this quarter is the cadence of revenue conversion from existing wins and programs. The previous quarter’s high gross margin signals that delivery and mix were favorable, and sustaining this quality of revenue will be central for EPS. If large deals or program milestones close toward the latter part of the quarter, the revenue capture could cluster and create upside risk to EBIT relative to consensus due to high incremental margins. That said, the lack of disclosed year-over-year segment growth data in the collected materials means investors will rely on consolidated metrics—gross margin, EBIT, and EPS—to infer whether QNX’s run-rate is trending up or down versus the prior year.
The pathway to stabilizing year-over-year revenue performance for QNX also hinges on consistent execution in services delivery and update cycles that translate to recognized revenue within the quarter. Should recognition slip into subsequent periods, this quarter’s reported top-line would remain under pressure even if the underlying demand backdrop is intact. The consensus pattern for this quarter suggests that while absolute revenue may decline versus last year, margin structure can offset much of the headwind, leaving EPS stable at USD 0.04 with the potential for incremental upside if mix remains favorable.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The first critical driver for BlackBerry Limited’s stock this quarter is the margin-structure outcome relative to last quarter’s 74.54% gross margin. Consensus implies that the company can hold a comparable margin profile while delivering a year-over-year EBIT increase of 33.18%. Investors will be sensitive to even modest deviations because of the high operating leverage embedded in a software-led P&L; every percentage point shift in gross margin can have a disproportionate effect on EBIT and EPS when revenue is essentially flat sequentially.
The second driver is the revenue mix between QNX at USD 63.10 million and Secure Communications at USD 59.90 million in the prior quarter. If QNX outperforms its recent share of 48.69% while Secure Communications tracks close to its 46.22% share, the blended margin should stay healthy, supporting the USD 0.04 EPS expectation. A mix shift toward lower-margin elements, including any dilutive contribution from Licensing and IP at USD 6.60 million, could compress the EBIT uplift anticipated by consensus.
The third driver is execution consistency in closing and recognizing higher-value contracts late in the quarter. Consensus is indicating a conservative stance on revenue, given the expected decline of 8.36% year over year to USD 1.37 hundred million. If execution enables revenue to print near the upper end of internal expectations while operating expenses remain controlled, the positive operating leverage could deliver an EBIT result ahead of USD 22.78 million and set up a more constructive guide. Conversely, slippage of material deliverables into the next quarter would reinforce the expected revenue decline and could temper sentiment even if EPS holds at USD 0.04 due to cost actions and mix.
Analyst Opinions
Within the collected period, there were insufficient formal previews to establish a quantifiable bullish-versus-bearish majority. In the absence of a determinable ratio, the prevailing framework reflected in available estimates suggests a cautious stance on revenue and a measured confidence in margin durability and operating leverage. The expectations for a year-over-year revenue decline of 8.36% to USD 1.37 hundred million alongside a 33.18% rise in EBIT and a stable adjusted EPS of USD 0.04 indicate that the analytical focus is on cost control and mix rather than top-line acceleration.
Given this setup, the consensus-like view emphasizes defensibility of gross margin near last quarter’s 74.54% and the possibility that expense discipline can bridge the gap from revenue softness to EPS stability. The pattern of prior-quarter performance—revenue of USD 1.30 hundred million, net profit margin of 10.26%, and sequential net profit improvement of 600.00%—underpins the notion that management’s cost structure actions have traction and can continue to support earnings, even as revenue headwinds persist year over year. Heading into December 18, 2025 Post Market, the analytical bar is therefore calibrated less to upside on revenue and more to confirmation that the company can sustain high-margin software economics and keep operating expenses aligned to deliver the forecasted EBIT of USD 22.78 million and adjusted EPS of USD 0.04.
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