Abstract
The RealReal will post fourth quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s mix and margins, frames revenue and EPS projections for the current quarter, and highlights the operational levers and analyst sentiment shaping expectations.
Market Forecast
Based on the company’s latest projections, The RealReal’s current quarter revenue is estimated at $190.70 million, implying 16.47% year-over-year growth, while projected EPS is approximately $0.04, implying 306.33% year-over-year growth, alongside an EBIT estimate of $5.34 million with 239.11% year-over-year growth. Margin guidance was not specified; however, investors will watch whether the gross profit margin can hold near last quarter’s 74.27% and whether net profit can move closer to breakeven given improving operating efficiency.
Consignment continues to anchor the business model and revenue mix, supported by authenticated supply and a deep catalog that drives high conversion and strong gross margin economics; management’s efforts on intake velocity and higher-value categories are expected to support top-line momentum into the seasonally strong end of the fiscal year. The most promising near-term growth vector is the consignment channel—with last quarter revenue of $134.43 million—benefiting from improved seller acquisition and revived offline engagement that increases supply quality and volume.
Last Quarter Review
The RealReal delivered revenue of $173.57 million, gross profit margin of 74.27%, GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $54.05 million, net profit margin of -31.14%, and adjusted EPS of -$0.04 in the previous quarter, with revenue up 17.47% year over year and adjusted EPS improving 55.56% year over year. A notable financial highlight was that EBIT turned positive to $1.05 million, reflecting early operating leverage from mix and cost control as the marketplace scaled through higher-consignment contribution. On the revenue mix, consignment contributed $134.43 million, direct sales $22.93 million, and shipping services $16.22 million, underscoring the model’s concentration in fee-based consignment economics and reduced reliance on capital-intensive direct inventory.
Current Quarter Outlook
Consignment marketplace performance
Consignment is the core engine of The RealReal’s financial profile, and its performance remains the key determinant of quarterly outcomes. With $134.43 million of last quarter revenue derived from consignment, the take-rate dynamics, authentication efficiency, and seller engagement funnel will likely define the trajectory of gross margins and operating leverage this quarter. The company’s forecast of $190.70 million in total revenue points to a solid year-over-year acceleration, and given consignment’s weight in the mix, a steady or rising consignment contribution should help sustain gross margin near recent levels.
Operationally, the marketplace’s performance hinges on supply—both the breadth of listings and the quality mix skewing toward higher-value categories that command better take rates and lower refund rates. The reopening of the San Francisco flagship in Union Square for shopping and consignment taps into an important offline intake and brand-building channel, creating incremental access to high-quality consignors while potentially lifting average order values by exposing sellers and buyers to curated assortments. This physical footprint can translate into improved top-of-funnel intake, faster processing throughput, and more consistent supply of authenticated items, which, if realized, supports GMV growth and transaction velocity during the quarter.
Margin resiliency is the other focus. Because consignment revenue carries a structurally higher gross margin than direct sales, a continued shift toward consignment should support gross profit margin sustainability. Investors will pay close attention to whether operational workflow efficiencies in authentication, cataloging, and fulfillment restrain unit costs, thereby preserving or modestly expanding contribution margin even as volume scales. With EBIT projected to rise to $5.34 million and EPS to approximately $0.04, the financial setup suggests that incremental gross profit is expected to convert to operating profit at a faster clip than in prior quarters—an encouraging sign if consignment mix is maintained or improves.
In-person consignment and shipping services as leverage points
Beyond the core consignment engine, in-person consignment activities and related services such as shipping are poised to provide incremental leverage. Shipping services, which accounted for $16.22 million last quarter, act as a complementary revenue stream that both supports transaction completion and can capture additional unit economics when the platform scales. As volume rises, per-unit logistics costs typically decline due to network efficiencies, and the platform can recover more overhead across a larger base, allowing the shipping line to contribute more positively to the blended margin.
The reopening of the San Francisco flagship store adds another layer of operating leverage by enhancing local intake and in-store consignment services. Offline consignment can attract higher-quality, authenticated items more quickly, and it can foster deeper relationships with top consignors who supply multiple items or higher-ticket pieces. That in turn has the potential to improve sell-through rates and reduce return rates, both of which feed into more stable margin outcomes. If intake quality rises and the platform can process these items through established authentication and pricing pipelines efficiently, the combination of higher consignment revenue per item and lower unit processing cost enhances the marginal profitability of each transaction.
Direct sales, while a smaller $22.93 million contributor last quarter, can still play a role in optimizing overall economics, especially in instances where the company strategically allocates inventory to maximize price realization. However, the economic logic remains anchored to amplifying consignment supply and continually pushing a greater proportion of GMV through fee-based transactions to sustain high gross margin. Efficiency in shipping and fulfillment will therefore be assessed alongside the rate of in-person consignment intake during this quarter as the platform seeks to convert demand into profitable growth.
Key stock price drivers this quarter
Profit trajectory will be the dominant headline driver for the stock into and out of the print, given that the company’s forecast implies a turn toward positive EPS and stronger EBIT. A sustained gross profit margin near last quarter’s 74.27%—combined with evidence of disciplined expense control—would validate operating leverage assumptions and support the projected EPS of roughly $0.04. If execution aligns, investors are likely to reward a demonstration that higher consignment mix and process improvements translate into consistent earnings power, rather than a one-off swing.
Top-line cadence is the second key driver. The revenue estimate of $190.70 million implies 16.47% year-over-year growth, a rate that will require robust GMV and healthy sell-through in high-value categories. The reopening of the San Francisco flagship and any commentary on offline intake and regional demand trends will be scrutinized for indications of accelerating supply, particularly among high-ticket consignors whose items can materially influence GMV and margin. Clear evidence that intake pipeline quality is improving should bolster confidence in sustaining growth, while any signs of supply tightness or elongated processing times could temper expectations.
Finally, guidance color and qualitative updates on operational metrics—such as authentication throughput, returns behavior, and logistics efficiencies—may influence near-term valuation multiples. The last quarter’s positive EBIT of $1.05 million demonstrated early leverage; investors will look for confirmation that this trend is durable and scaling, not just seasonal. Any strategy updates linked to the store reopening, service enhancements, or category prioritization that point to higher conversion and improved unit economics can help reinforce the upside scenario embedded in consensus forecasts.
Analyst Opinions
Within the current calendar window, the published balance of views indicates that bullish opinions represent the majority, with an average rating of Buy and a mean price target of $17 cited in January, suggesting a constructive stance into the print. The aggregated outlook implies confidence that revenue can reach approximately $190.70 million and that EPS can inflect toward positive territory, underpinned by higher consignment mix and improving operational efficiency. This view emphasizes that sustained gross-margin strength, cost discipline, and incremental contributions from shipping and in-person consignment should allow EBIT and EPS to outpace revenue growth as the model scales.
Bullish analysts point to the company’s improving profit trajectory as the primary catalyst this quarter. The guide for EPS to approximately $0.04 and EBIT to $5.34 million, alongside a 16.47% year-over-year revenue increase, signals that the unit economics inherent in consignment are translating into earnings power, especially as the model pivots further away from capital-intensive direct sales. They also highlight that last quarter’s gross margin of 74.27%—achieved on $173.57 million of revenue—provides a credible baseline for maintaining margin quality when the consignment contribution remains high, with the reopening of a flagship location offering an incremental supply acquisition channel.
Supportive views further underscore the importance of operational execution. Positive EBIT of $1.05 million last quarter, up 107.20% year over year, demonstrated that incremental revenue is increasingly falling to the operating line as the company optimizes authentication, cataloging, and logistics processes. The framework for this upcoming quarter assumes that similar efficiencies persist, allowing the business to convert revenue growth into disproportionate gains in EBIT and EPS. In this scenario, even modest improvements in processing speed, shipping cost per order, and returns management could yield meaningful margin wins because the platform’s fee-based revenue model amplifies benefits at scale.
From a valuation perspective, a majority Buy stance reflects an expectation that consistent profitability milestones will support multiple stability despite past volatility. Analysts arguing the bullish case contend that repeated delivery of improving EPS and consecutive quarters of positive EBIT would reduce concerns about the durability of the model, potentially broadening the investor base willing to underwrite longer-duration cash-flow improvements. The store reopening in a key urban market is seen as a strategically aligned step that can sustain high-quality intake and reinforce the marketplace’s value proposition for both consignors and buyers, thereby underpinning the top-line outlook embedded in current-quarter estimates.
The majority view anticipates that the quarter will showcase the benefits of a disciplined focus on consignment, with revenue estimated at $190.70 million, EPS projected around $0.04, and EBIT guided to $5.34 million—each reflecting significant year-over-year improvement. While margin guidance was not explicitly provided, bullish commentary emphasizes that last quarter’s 74.27% gross margin offers headroom for maintaining healthy contribution, especially with a robust consignment mix and auxiliary revenue from shipping services. As a result, consensus leans toward a constructive outcome in which the company executes against its operating plan and further closes the gap between revenue scale and sustainable profitability.
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