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Earning Preview: Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 4.59%, and institutional views are bullishAbstract
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV will report quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes the latest quarterly performance, management’s current-quarter projections, and recent media updates on traffic trends to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and earnings per share.Market Forecast
For the upcoming quarter, the company’s forecast points to revenue of $412.96 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 4.59%, with EBIT expected at $230.11 million, up 7.23% year over year, and adjusted EPS estimated at $5.10, down 6.77% year over year. Forecast margin details have not been guided, but the mix of a lower top line and higher EBIT suggests efficiency gains or a favorable cost/revenue mix within the quarter. The principal revenue engine remains aeronautical services, with intra-quarter indicators showing modest passenger growth led by Colombia, while non-aeronautical spend per passenger remains a swing factor for revenue density. The most promising near-term vector is non-aeronautical monetization alongside Colombia-origin traffic strength, supported by last quarter’s non-aeronautical revenue contribution of $141.31 million and January’s 15.00% year-over-year traffic increase in Colombia as a demand signal.Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV delivered revenue of $470.84 million (up 19.13% year over year), a gross profit margin of 98.55%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately $113.54 million by applying the reported 24.12% net profit margin to revenue, and adjusted EPS of 3.79 (down 36.37% year over year). Quarter on quarter, net profit declined by 1.41%, reflecting near-term pressure on bottom-line momentum despite top-line expansion.A notable financial highlight was the contrast between revenue growth and profit compression at the per-share level, as EBIT of $198.48 million fell 8.28% year over year while revenue advanced, underscoring a changing cost/revenue mix and/or non-operating impacts embedded in EPS during the quarter. In terms of composition, last quarter’s revenue mix featured $260.19 million from aeronautical services (55.26% of revenue), $141.31 million from non-aeronautical services (30.01%), and $69.34 million from construction services (14.73%), positioning the business to benefit from incremental passenger throughput and commercial monetization trends.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Aeronautical Services trajectory into the quarter
Within the quarter-to-date window, disclosed traffic updates show early signs of stabilization with selective pockets of growth. December systemwide traffic increased 0.40% year over year, followed by a January rise of 3.60% year over year, providing a constructive demand signal into the reporting period. The regional split in January—Mexico up 0.90%, Colombia up 15.00%, Puerto Rico down 2.10%—points to heterogeneous recovery across networks, with Colombia continuing to outperform. From a revenue translation perspective, aeronautical fees track closely with traffic volumes and mix; hence, the observed January momentum is directionally supportive for core aeronautical revenue, even if the company’s quarter-wide forecast for total revenue is down 4.59% year over year due to seasonality, comparison bases, or mix.Last quarter’s aeronautical revenue contribution of $260.19 million highlights the segment’s role as the anchor of total revenue. Against this baseline, the company’s forecast for the current quarter ($412.96 million) suggests typical seasonal moderation from the prior period. The spread between the projected top line and the improving EBIT profile (+7.23% year over year) hints at operating leverage emerging through cost controls or pricing dynamics, potentially cushioning aeronautical margin outcomes even as the top line shifts with seasonal patterns. Segment profitability will be sensitive to the blend of domestic versus international passengers, route reinstatements, and airport-specific tariff schedules, all of which can widen or compress aeronautical yields at the margin.
The most recent monthly traffic disclosures are particularly relevant for inferring late-quarter run-rate indicators. Colombia’s double-digit year-over-year growth in January offers a high-quality throughput signal for the aeronautical fee base within that geographic cluster. Conversely, the slight contraction in Puerto Rico is a minor offset and should be monitored for persistence. On balance, the varied regional contributions net to moderate growth in passenger volumes, which, coupled with conservative revenue guidance, implies management is embedding prudent assumptions on fare/mix and auxiliary fees per passenger for the quarter.
Non-aeronautical monetization and growth vectors
Non-aeronautical services—comprising commercial leases, retail, parking, and other passenger-facing services—remain a critical lever for revenue density and incremental profitability. The $141.31 million non-aeronautical revenue contribution last quarter, representing 30.01% of total revenue, evidences the scale of this stream and its ability to lift margins when passenger spending trends are favorable. Since non-aeronautical performance often correlates with passenger dwell time, international mix, and retail conversion, stable-to-improving traffic in January (+3.60% year over year overall) is constructive for this segment even if per-passenger spend can vary by airport and season.Within the quarter, non-aeronautical trajectory will likely reflect a balance of seasonal footfall, retail tenant performance, and price indexation mechanisms embedded in commercial contracts. The forecasted revenue decline of 4.59% year over year for the total company does not preclude relative outperformance by non-aeronautical services if spend per passenger holds up or if retail and parking utilization sustain above prior-year levels in high-traffic terminals. Colombia’s robust passenger growth (+15.00% in January) can also catalyze non-aeronautical sales through increased footfall, though the absolute revenue contribution will differ by airport scale and retail mix.
Management’s projected uptick in EBIT (+7.23% year over year) alongside softer revenue points to margin-accretive contributions from non-aeronautical activities, efficiency gains, or both. These dynamics are often most visible in periods of modest passenger growth, where the blend of high-margin commercial revenue and disciplined cost structures has the potential to magnify operating income relative to the top line. Monitoring reported KPIs around commercial revenue and ancillary yields in the release and subsequent commentary will be key to validating this thesis for the quarter.
Key stock-price drivers this quarter
Near-term equity performance is likely to respond to three primary elements embedded in the print and commentary. First, translation effects from local-currency revenue to US dollar reporting can influence headline growth rates and EPS comparability. Last quarter’s revenue was $470.84 million with a 24.12% net margin translating to approximately $113.54 million in net income; any movements in exchange rates during the quarter can alter this mapping even if local-currency performance is steady, producing headline variability in ADR figures. Second, realized passenger trends versus the month-by-month updates will be scrutinized—investors will look to see whether January’s 3.60% increase is maintained or broadened, and whether Puerto Rico’s mild decline persists or reverses.Third, the balance between construction revenue and core operations can tilt consolidated margins. Construction services contributed $69.34 million last quarter (14.73% of revenue). Depending on project timing and accounting, construction can shift reported revenue without a proportionate effect on operating margin, which may partially explain the company’s forecast of lower revenue but higher EBIT year over year for the upcoming quarter. Delivering on the EBIT estimate of $230.11 million (+7.23% year over year) will be a focal point for the equity case this quarter, as it suggests margin resilience and cost discipline. The interplay of these drivers—FX translation, realized traffic by region, and construction/commercial mix—should shape the magnitude and direction of any post-earnings price move.
Analyst Opinions
Among the views collected within the defined time window, the available rating update specific to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV is bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 100% to 0%. A recent note from Bank of America Securities, via analyst Carlos Peyrelongue, maintained a Buy rating on the company, signaling confidence in the resilience of earnings drivers into the current quarter. This positive stance aligns with the company’s forecast profile, which calls for a year-over-year increase in EBIT despite a projected revenue decline, implying progress on margin management and non-aeronautical monetization. The rating also sits coherently alongside January’s 3.60% year-over-year increase in consolidated passenger traffic and especially robust momentum in Colombia (+15.00% year over year), which together provide a constructive backdrop for near-term airport fee and commercial revenue performance.From a fundamental standpoint within this quarter, bullish analysts appear focused on the operating income trajectory rather than the top-line deceleration, suggesting that investors should watch for qualitative commentary on cost actions, commercial yield strategies, and regional traffic pacing. Confirmation that EBIT can outgrow revenue year over year, as guided, would reinforce the Buy case by evidencing efficiency gains and mix benefits powerful enough to offset softer reported revenue. The timing and scope of construction projects may add noise to consolidated revenue, but a clean read-through on operating profitability will be decisive for sentiment following the release.
Market participants with a favorable view also tend to emphasize the predictability of aeronautical fee structures and the compounding potential of non-aeronautical revenue streams as travel demand stabilizes, albeit with variability across regions. With last quarter’s adjusted EPS of 3.79 down 36.37% year over year yet EBIT set to grow in the upcoming quarter, there is heightened attention on reconciling the path from operating earnings to EPS, including non-operating items and any currency effects. Should management’s commentary illuminate a clearer bridge between EBIT improvements and EPS stabilization or recovery, it would add credibility to bullish expectations and could influence valuation perceptions.
The majority view anticipates that the company will deliver on its EBIT guidance while providing a cautious but constructive narrative on passenger trends and commercial initiatives. Given the intra-quarter data showing gradual volume improvement and the company’s own forecasts projecting improving operating leverage, bullish analysts expect management to reaffirm key pillars—traffic normalization in select regions, targeted commercial yield efforts, and disciplined cost control. If the print validates these elements, it would strengthen the case for sustained operating resilience and support the positive rating bias reflected in the latest institutional commentary.
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