International Gold: On April 6, the international gold market opened after the Easter holiday. Spot gold in London opened lower at $4,652.28 per ounce, quickly fell to $4,599.7 during the session, nearly breaking below the key support level of $4,600, before rebounding sharply after a brief consolidation. As of the time of writing, gold had rebounded to a high of $4,671.8, with increased intraday volatility. US non-farm payrolls for March increased by 178,000, significantly exceeding the expected 120,000, while the unemployment rate was 3.6%, and wages grew 0.4% month-over-month. The data indicates strong resilience in the US economy and persistent inflation. CME interest rate futures now show the probability of a June rate cut has fallen below 2%, with expectations for the first rate cut pushed back to September or even after December. The US Dollar Index held firmly above 104.85, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.39%, significantly increasing the holding cost of gold and becoming the primary pressure on its price. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and escalating US-Iran conflicts are generating some safe-haven demand. Simultaneously, global central banks continue to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 16th consecutive month, providing medium to long-term fundamental support for gold prices. However, in the short term, the supportive effects of geopolitics and central bank buying are unlikely to outweigh the negative impact from the shift in Federal Reserve policy.
From a technical perspective, the weekly chart shows a rebound after testing lows, indicating potential signs of a bottom. The MACD green histogram continues to shrink, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. A significant further decline is unlikely in the short term barring major negative news. However, the MA5 and MA10 remain in a bearish crossover, maintaining some pressure on the bulls. Conditions are not yet ripe for a substantial rally, with expectations for repeated sideways consolidation to correct indicators. A sustained move above the middle Bollinger Band and the MA5 average would be needed for a significant upward move. On the daily chart, the consecutive bullish run was interrupted by a large bearish candlestick. The current consecutive bearish closes below the middle Bollinger Band clearly indicate that gold has re-entered a weak phase. If this weakness persists, it is likely to retest the previous lows. Therefore, with weakness confirmed for the week, the outlook is for further downside. The 4-hour chart shows a consolidation range, with the Bollinger Bands contracting and moving averages converging, suggesting no clear trend for now. Resistance is evident around $4,800, with support near $4,500. Until this range is broken, gold is expected to oscillate with the market. A breakout above or below these key levels, combined with fundamental news, will determine if a sustained trend can develop. Consequently, gold is anticipated to trade within the $4,800-$4,500 range this week. As long as this range holds, traders can confidently execute range-bound strategies, adjusting their approach only after a confirmed breakout.
Based on the hourly chart, gold is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation at the start of the week. Immediate resistance levels are evident around $4,650 and $4,680. A sustained break above $4,700 could indicate potential market-moving news in the first half of the week. Initial support to watch is in the $4,570-$4,550 zone. A break below this area could accelerate and widen the corrective move. For trading, consider long positions targeting a rebound around the $4,638-$4,640 area in the afternoon. Subsequently, consider short positions in batches near $4,650 and $4,680, with a manual stop-loss above $4,700. The target for shorts is around $4,580-$4,550.
International Crude Oil: Crude oil prices initially fell back to near the 10-day moving average last week. However, on Thursday, prices surged again influenced by remarks from former President Trump, breaking through the trendline resistance at $108.5 and pushing towards a high near $113.9. Although prices subsequently retreated, the pullback was limited, resulting in a large bullish daily candlestick. Over the weekend, market news failed to show significant improvement, leading to a gap-up opening today, testing the $115.3 level. The lack of concrete news to fuel further gains resulted in a subsequent pullback, with prices already filling the gap. Based on the current daily and hourly chart structures, the key focus for US crude this week is to maintain the bullish momentum generated by last Thursday's surge. Critical support levels to watch are around $100.5, and the $109-$108.5 zone. If these levels hold, the current adjustment is likely merely technical. Any subsequent positive news could propel US crude to retest the $115 area, potentially even reaching new highs around $120. However, if the $100.5-$108.5 support band is broken, US crude may enter a period of sustained consolidation or a deeper corrective phase. The extent of such an adjustment would remain highly dependent on subsequent news flow, making the outlook complex and volatile.
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