European companies are delivering one of their strongest earnings reports in years, with analysts growing increasingly optimistic across multiple sectors, positioning regional equities for potential record highs.
By several measures, the current earnings season stands out: the MSCI Europe Index has seen profits surge 14%, with more than half of its components exceeding second-quarter expectations. According to data compiled by industry research, both metrics are the highest since early 2023.
Rising oil prices have bolstered the commodities sector as a primary contributor. However, Goldman Sachs data shows that even the average constituent of the Euro Stoxx 600 Index has posted a 7% year-over-year increase in earnings per share, narrowing the gap with S&P 500 components.
"European earnings growth remains far stronger than anticipated," said Eiko Sievert, a strategist at Goldman Sachs. "While market expectations were already more optimistic than usual before the earnings season began, they still underestimated the underlying strength of fundamentals."
This marks a stark contrast to recent years, when sluggish economic growth left corporate profits nearly stagnant. Europe's lack of major tech giants has historically given US stocks a disproportionate advantage. Yet this time, as the earnings season unfolds, investors are rewarding regional equities handsomely.
According to Citigroup data, companies whose earnings exceeded analyst forecasts have outperformed the Stoxx 600 Index by an average of 1.6 percentage points on the following trading day, double the outperformance seen in the previous quarter. Stocks that missed expectations have also experienced similarly extreme volatility, underperforming the benchmark by 2.3 percentage points, the most negative market reaction in four years.
Despite this, European equity markets remain buoyed, with benchmark indices like France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX hitting new highs. The Euro Stoxx 600 Index has outperformed the S&P 500 for the second consecutive month, setting a fresh intraday record high on Tuesday.
"Europe's investment environment is quite interesting, driven by results rather than built on expectations," said Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares. "This stands in stark contrast to recent years, when European stocks were considered 'cheap for a reason.'"
According to data compiled by media sources, the Stoxx 600 Index currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times, above its long-term average of 13 times. While the benchmark index still trades at a discount to the S&P 500 in relative valuation terms, it is now at its highest level since January 2022.
Comments