On Thursday, November 5, international gold rebounded but hit resistance at an ascending trendline, while escalating geopolitical tensions, crude oil halting its decline and boosting rate hike expectations, and Federal Reserve's Barkin saying gradual rate hikes remain reasonable all capped gold's upside. This forced the metal into a pullback that still closed higher with an inverted hammer pattern, suggesting a potential short-term top and favoring a downward correction in the near term. However, there is no further downward momentum yet; the upside continues to focus on trendline resistance, and a breakout and hold above it would reignite bullish momentum, while failure at resistance or a close below the middle Bollinger Band would risk another test of new lows.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,061.41 per ounce, first made an intraday low of $4,057.68, then rebounded continuously, reaching an intraday high of $4,146.69 around 11:30 AM, where it faced resistance and pulled back into a weak sideways drift through the US session close at $4,088.72, with a daily range of $89.01, closing up $27.31 or 0.67%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday, November 6: international gold opened by bottoming and rebounding, with intraday demand for a bounce, but fundamentally, multiple oil tanker attacks in the Middle East's Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns over crude supply disruptions, boosting inflation and rate hike expectations, which is bearish for gold. Technically, if it cannot recover yesterday's pullback and close back above the ascending trendline, there remains risk of another downward correction. Therefore, the short-term view is for choppy trading.
Today's focus will be on US October unemployment rate, US October seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in tens of thousands), US October average hourly earnings year-over-year and month-over-month, plus US November one-year inflation expectations preliminary reading and US November University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary reading. Market expectations are for an unchanged unemployment rate, an increase in nonfarm payrolls, mixed wage data, and unchanged subsequent data, overall leaning bearish for gold. Thus, today still carries the expectation of a rebound-and-pullback that forms an inverted hammer. Pay attention to the timing of data releases and price action, and act accordingly.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold has recently fallen into the ascending trend channel that started in 2024 and has touched the 100-week moving average support as expected. The main chart's ZZ indicator also shows that after bottoming on the pullback, bulls are seeing rebound demand, and the weekly chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern that signals a bottom and bullish outlook. This will increase bullish expectations for next week and the week after, even if Friday closes with an inverted hammer, it is still a bottoming bullish pattern. Therefore, next week can continue to look for bullish rebounds on dips.
On the daily chart, gold's rebound is currently capped by ascending trendline resistance and prior consolidation range pressure, with bullish momentum blocked. Combined with the inverted hammer top pattern and the ZZ indicator's top signal, the near-term bias is for a downward correction. So, before a close back above the trendline, prioritize selling rallies, and wait for a pullback to the 5-10 day short-term moving average support or the bottom of the ascending trend channel before looking bullish again.
Below are initial intraday support and resistance levels for reference; actual entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications: Gold: downside support near $4,060 or $4,030; upside resistance near $4,135 or $4,165. Silver: downside support near $51.45 or $50.70; upside resistance near $53.00 or $54.00.
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