Analysts at Bank of America Securities, led by Vivek Arya, have released a preview of NVIDIA's first-quarter earnings. Based on the historical trend where the company's actual revenue has exceeded management guidance by an average of 7% to 8% over the past ten quarters, and considering the previously provided revenue guidance of $78 billion, it is projected that NVIDIA's actual Q1 revenue is highly likely to fall within the range of $83 billion to $84 billion. This figure significantly surpasses the market consensus expectation of $78.7 billion, suggesting that an "earnings beat" is almost certain. NVIDIA's earnings report is scheduled for release after the market closes on May 20, Eastern Time.
As a leading indicator in the artificial intelligence sector, NVIDIA's earnings performance often directly catalyzes the AI segment in the A-share market and is expected to further boost confidence in the AI computing power industry chain. In this context, attention is drawn to the ChiNext AI ETF (159363), which focuses on key overseas computing power chain players like leading optical module companies. It has an optical module weighting exceeding 50%, offering a one-click investment in leading companies.
**Hot Topic Tracking**
NVIDIA's upcoming first fiscal quarter earnings report is highly anticipated by the market, with several Wall Street institutions expressing strong optimism about the performance of this "AI leader." Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya has raised the price target for NVIDIA to $320 and forecasts that its 2026 revenue could exceed $190 billion, setting a potential historical record for a commercial company. According to market consensus, NVIDIA's Q1 earnings per share are expected to be $1.76, with revenue around $78.75 billion, far exceeding the $44.06 billion from the same period last year. Another view suggests that NVIDIA's actual Q1 revenue could be as high as $83 billion to $84 billion, which would likely exceed market expectations and reaffirm the strong momentum of "outperforming expectations and raising guidance."
The core driver of this robust performance stems from the explosive growth of the data center business, with projected segment revenue reaching $72.85 billion, of which computing contributes over $60.5 billion. Vertiv, as NVIDIA's liquid cooling partner, reported a doubling of its Q1 net profit and raised its full-year guidance, indirectly confirming the surge in demand for data center infrastructure and the deepening global AI construction wave. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted that enterprise AI spending is accelerating, and NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report will be a key catalyst for technology stocks. The demand-supply imbalance for its Blackwell and Rubin AI chips remains "very favorable." With the Vera Rubin platform scheduled for release in the second half of 2026, a new demand cycle has already begun, supporting Wall Street's confidence in NVIDIA's long-term growth prospects.
**Hot Topic Analysis**
NVIDIA's Q1 earnings are highly likely to significantly exceed expectations, indicating continued strong demand for AI computing power. Historical data shows that NVIDIA's actual revenue typically exceeds management guidance by 7% to 8%. Given the previous FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance of $78 billion, actual revenue could fall within the $83 billion to $84 billion range, notably higher than the market consensus of $78.7 billion. This expectation gap primarily stems from robust demand for NVIDIA's AI chips from hyperscale cloud service providers and the top five cloud providers, which contribute over 50% of data center business revenue.
Sentiment in the computing power industry chain continues to rise, with the networking business becoming a new growth driver. NVIDIA's data indicates that networking revenue within the data center business surged 263% year-over-year, primarily driven by the continued ramp-up of the NVLink Fabric in GB200 and GB300 systems. As global AI giants like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Inc. and Microsoft collectively raise their 2026 capital expenditure expectations to over $500 billion, this provides solid support for the development of AI computing power.
**Investment Recommendations Focus on Computing Power Chain Opportunities**
Industry research reports indicate that computing power cloud services represent the most certain direction, suggesting attention to beneficiaries of cloud provider price increases and domestic computing power chip manufacturers. Simultaneously, given the networking business explosion, opportunities in supply-demand improvements for segments like optical modules, PCBs, and CPO deserve focus. Overall, with the global AI industry trend strengthening, four main themes are viewed favorably: optical components, liquid cooling, domestic computing power, and satellite communications.
**Investment Thesis**
An "earnings beat" for NVIDIA's Q1 report is virtually assured, with projected actual revenue between $83 billion and $84 billion, significantly surpassing the market consensus of $78.7 billion, highlighting its absolute dominance as the core AI leader. This strong performance is fueled by explosive growth in the data center business, where computing and networking revenues surged 58% and 263% year-over-year, respectively. Continued capacity release for Blackwell products and the rapid ramp-up of NVLink computing fabric driven by GB200 and GB300 systems create a highly favorable supply-demand imbalance for NVIDIA.
Concurrently, global tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Inc. and Microsoft are comprehensively raising capital expenditures, injecting continuous funding momentum into AI computing power infrastructure. China's token usage surpassing that of the US further confirms the acceleration of global AI application deployment. Combined with partners like Vertiv reporting doubled earnings, confirming surging infrastructure demand, and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform launch initiating a new demand cycle, NVIDIA not only establishes short-term performance advantages but also builds a deep moat through long-term technological iteration and ecosystem barriers. The outlook for its leadership in the global AI computing wave remains firm, suggesting a focus on core beneficiaries like computing power cloud services and optical modules.
For a one-click investment in leading optical module and CPO opportunities, it is recommended to focus on the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and its corresponding feeder funds (Class A 023407, Class C 023408). The underlying index has an optical module weighting of 50%, providing comprehensive exposure. Approximately 30% of the portfolio is allocated to AI applications, representing not just computing power core but also AI application leaders.
It is noteworthy that as of May 15, 2026, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) reached a size of approximately 7.389 billion yuan, ranking first in size within the dual-innovation AI sector across the market. Its average daily turnover over the past six months was about 800 million yuan, also ranking first in trading activity within the AI sector.
Data source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc.
ETF fund fee note: When investors subscribe for or redeem fund shares, subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission not exceeding 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are subject to the rates charged by securities firms; no sales service fee is charged.
Feeder fund fee note: The ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund Class C does not charge a subscription fee; the redemption fee is 1.5% within 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more; the sales service fee is 0.3%. For the ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund Class A, the subscription fee is 1% for amounts below 1 million yuan, 0.6% for 1 million yuan (inclusive) to 2 million yuan, and 1000 yuan per transaction for 2 million yuan (inclusive) or more; the redemption fee is 1.5% within 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more; no sales service fee is charged.
Risk warning: The ChiNext AI ETF passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index. The base date for this index is December 28, 2018, and its release date is July 11, 2024. The annual performance of the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index from 2021 to 2025 was: 17.57%, -34.52%, 47.83%, 38.44%, 106.35%, respectively. The index constituents are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its back-tested historical performance does not indicate future index performance. Index constituents mentioned herein are for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute investment advice in any form nor represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the asset manager. The fund manager assesses the risk rating of this fund as R4 - Medium to High Risk, suitable for aggressive (C4) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the sales institution. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only. Investors are responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice to readers and shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment involves risks. The past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest with caution in funds.
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