Analysis of market conditions reveals that on the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a decline in the US services PMI for June, dropping from 54.5 in May to 54. This reading came in slightly below the market forecast of 54.2. The employment index recorded its largest increase so far in 2024 and moved back into expansionary territory, while the prices paid index fell to a four-month low. Business activity and new order growth showed signs of cooling. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed the view that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool but must be applied flexibly to avoid constraining policy options. Waller supports the Fed's commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target and noted that a stabilizing labor market allows monetary policy to focus more intently on inflation.
Futures Market and Trading Volume
On 2026-07-06, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 911.56 yuan per gram and settled at 907.82 yuan per gram, representing a decline of 0.39% from the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. During the overnight session, the main contract opened at 906.00 yuan per gram and closed at 909.96 yuan per gram, marking a gain of 0.24% from the afternoon session close.
On the same date, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 15,250.00 yuan per kilogram and settled at 15,083.00 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.13% from the prior close. Daily volume reached 461,522 contracts, with open interest at 207,485 contracts. The overnight session saw it open at 15,083 yuan per kilogram and close at 15,126 yuan per kilogram, up 0.29% from the afternoon close.
US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring
As of 2026-07-06, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note closed at 4.49%, a marginal increase of 0.01% from the previous session. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields stood at 0.35%, widening by 0.04% on the day.
SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes
For the Au2608 contract on 2026-07-06, long positions increased by 488 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions decreased by 656 contracts. Total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the last trading day was 204,218 contracts, down 7.03% from the day before. Regarding silver, for the Ag2608 contract, long positions decreased by 48 contracts and short positions fell by 233 contracts. Total trading volume for silver contracts on the previous day was 853,420 contracts, a decline of 4.74% from the prior session.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking
In the precious metals ETF space, gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.99 tonnes to 1,001.37 tonnes as of the latest data. Silver ETF holdings were reduced by 34 tonnes to 14,939 tonnes.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking
Futures-Spot Basis: On 2026-07-06, the domestic premium for gold was -12.05 yuan per gram, while for silver it was -446.75 yuan per kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The price ratio between the main SHFE gold and silver contracts was approximately 60.19, down 1.74% from the previous day. The international gold-silver ratio was 67.00, declining by 1.68% from the prior session.
Fundamentals
Market monitoring data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market for the previous trading day (2026-07-06) shows that gold trading volume was 29,862 kilograms, a decrease of 20.36% from the day before. Silver trading volume was 226,948 kilograms, an increase of 19.50%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 4,800 kilograms.
Investment Strategy
Gold: Neutral
Current market risk appetite remains relatively cautious, with no significant shifts in the macroeconomic environment. Demand for gold investment may have softened slightly. Consequently, it is anticipated that gold prices will likely trade within a range-bound pattern in the near term. The Au2608 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range of 890 to 920 yuan per gram.
Silver: Neutral
The current rationale for silver is similar to that for gold. The price of silver itself is also projected to maintain a consolidating pattern. The Ag2608 contract is expected to trade within a range of 14,500 to 16,000 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Pause
Options: Pause
Risk Factors
Overseas liquidity risks.
Continued exit of speculative positions.
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