CICC has reiterated its revenue and profit forecasts for NEWBORNTOWN (09911) for 2025 and 2026. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of HK$14.5, implying a 38% upside from the current level (trading at 11.5x/9.9x 2025/2026 Non-IFRS P/E). Key highlights include:
1. **Core Product Performance**: - MICO has stabilized operationally post-restructuring, with sequential revenue stabilization and YoHo sustaining year-over-year growth. - New products SUGO and TopTop prioritize user acquisition, achieving mid-to-high double-digit MAU growth globally in markets like Germany, France, and Brazil. CICC maintains its forecast for a 30% YoY increase in social revenue for 2H.
2. **Strategic Initiatives**: - **Short Drama**: The company is testing global distribution of translated and self-produced short dramas, currently in an investment phase with manageable losses, aiming for future synergy with its social ecosystem. - **Gaming**: Flagship game *Alice's Dream* has entered the profit cycle, while new games in testing may launch in 1H 2026, potentially contributing incremental revenue.
3. **Efficiency & Profitability**: Focused on ROI-driven expansion, NEWBORNTOWN balances growth investments with profit generation. CICC expects full-year adjusted net profit of RMB1.1 billion, with further margin improvements as products mature.
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