The average domestic price of primary aluminum in the first half of 2026 was 24,139.14 yuan per tonne, up 18.84% from the average price in the first half of 2025 and 16.49% higher than the full-year average in 2025, repeatedly setting new historical highs. Analysts believe that aluminum supply overseas has been reduced by 2.39 million to 2.58 million tonnes due to the impact of the Middle East situation, with a long recovery period. Combined with the possibility that new overseas capacity may fall short of expectations, aluminum prices are likely to remain prone to rises rather than falls in the long term.
Against the backdrop of high primary aluminum prices and lower alumina costs, the aluminum industry chain continues to see rising prosperity. According to data from FuBao Information, the average estimated production cost for Chinese primary aluminum smelters in the first half of 2026 was around 15,800 yuan per tonne, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%. In terms of profit, the average estimated profit for Chinese primary aluminum smelters in the first half of 2026 was approximately 8,293.46 yuan per tonne, a year-on-year increase of 155.27%.
Multiple listed aluminum companies have reported strong results for the first half of 2026, with companies such as Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (CHALCO), and Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd. achieving significant year-on-year growth in their first-half performance. On the evening of July 27, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. disclosed its 2026 semi-annual report, showing operating revenue of 24.791 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.35%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 4.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.06%. The company stated that the dual growth in revenue and net profit during the reporting period was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in the selling prices of coal and primary aluminum products, and the year-on-year decrease in the price of the main raw material, alumina, which significantly enhanced the company's profitability.
Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (CHALCO) previously disclosed a performance forecast for the first half of 2026, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 11.2 billion yuan and 12.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58% to 73%. Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd. expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 4.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 101.52%, and expects to achieve net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.56%.
A FuBao Information analyst believes that in the second half of the year, the downside for the primary aluminum market is limited, while the upside requires further observation of macroeconomic trends. The narrative of trading geopolitics and the US dollar will continue throughout the second half of the year. Fluctuations in Middle East geopolitical situations will continue to strongly impact metals, and there is still a certain linkage effect between the US dollar, crude oil, and metals. A comprehensive assessment suggests that the pressure on aluminum will decrease. The policy direction of the Federal Reserve will be key to determining the upper limit of aluminum prices. The market has already priced in the possibility of an interest rate hike within the year. Regardless of whether a hike ultimately occurs, the intensity of bearish sentiment release was already verified in June, and it is expected that the subsequent pressure on aluminum will also remain within a controllable range.
In its semi-annual report, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. stated that in the second half of 2026, supportive policies for stable growth in the domestic non-ferrous metals industry are expected to continue to be implemented effectively. Coupled with the stable long-term demand support for aluminum from the new energy industry, primary aluminum prices are expected to maintain high-level volatile operations. Dongwu Securities believes that, based on the fact that the global interest rate cut cycle is not over, and considering the conditions of synchronous global economic recovery and different supply constraints at home and abroad, aluminum prices have room for a central upward shift. The securities firm recommends focusing on growth-oriented targets such as CHUANGXIN IND (02788), Huatong Cable, and NANSHAN AL INTL (02610); companies with high purity in primary aluminum operations such as Shenhuo Co., Ltd. and Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.; and high-dividend assets such as Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd., CHINAHONGQIAO (01378), Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd., and Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd.
Related concept stocks:
CHALCO (02600): A leading global alumina producer with a total domestic primary aluminum production capacity of approximately 7.81 million tonnes; it owns bauxite resources both domestically and overseas (bauxite mine in Guinea).
NANSHAN AL INTL (02610): An alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia, primarily producing smelter-grade alumina using the low-temperature Bayer process. It is one of the top three alumina producers in Southeast Asia, with a designed alumina production capacity of 2 million tonnes. According to Frost & Sullivan in 2023, the group was the second-largest producer in the Southeast Asian alumina market, holding a 34.9% market share.
CHINAHONGQIAO (01378): A large-scale enterprise in the aluminum industry chain integrating thermal power, mining, alumina, liquid aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum alloy casting products, aluminum busbars, high-precision aluminum plate, strip, and foil, and new materials. Its primary aluminum and alumina production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shandong and Yunnan, with over ten production bases. As of 2025, the company has a total of 21 million tonnes of alumina production capacity (domestic and overseas), 6.46 million tonnes of compliant primary aluminum capacity, and 970,000 tonnes of aluminum processing capacity.
CHUANGXIN IND (02788): Operates the Inner Mongolia Huolinhe primary aluminum base with a designed capacity of 788,100 tonnes per year, supported by a self-owned coal-fired power plant; and owns a 1.2 million tonne per year alumina plant in Binzhou, Shandong, which supplies raw materials for the Inner Mongolia primary aluminum operations.
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