SpaceX's $800B Valuation Nears Half of Tesla's Despite Fractional Revenue

Deep News12-06 14:44

SpaceX is offering secondary market shares at an $800 billion valuation, despite projected 2025 revenue being just one-sixth of Tesla Motors' (TSLA). This valuation would surpass half of Tesla's current $1.43 trillion market cap, positioning SpaceX as America's most valuable private company ahead of OpenAI.

The company's CFO Bret Johnsen recently informed investors about the share sale plan, doubling SpaceX's valuation from its previous secondary market transaction at $400 billion. Since March 2020, SpaceX's valuation has skyrocketed over 22-fold from $36 billion.

Executives revealed SpaceX is considering a potential 2026 IPO, which would mark the nearly 25-year-old company's market debut, potentially including its Starlink satellite internet division. The stark valuation-revenue disparity highlights the "Musk premium" - while Tesla expects $952 billion 2025 revenue, SpaceX projects just $155 billion.

Elon Musk owns approximately 42% of SpaceX and 15% of Tesla (potentially growing to 29% under new compensation terms), with both companies constituting the majority of his $496.1 billion net worth.

SpaceX's valuation surge stems from dual drivers: 1) Dominating 90% of global payload launches in 2024 2) Starlink's rapid growth, contributing $8.2 billion of SpaceX's estimated $13.1 billion 2024 revenue

The company has become indispensable to U.S. government operations, servicing NASA, Pentagon, and intelligence agencies while developing its Starship lunar rocket system. SpaceX is also investing over $20 billion in cash, stock, and debt to acquire EchoStar spectrum for direct-to-cell satellite connectivity.

With IPO markets recovering after three sluggish years - evidenced by strong debuts from Circle Internet and Figma - SpaceX's long-awaited public listing appears increasingly plausible. Musk acknowledged at Tesla's annual meeting that "maybe SpaceX should go public someday," despite his criticism of public company burdens.

The current share sale, part of SpaceX's biannual tender offers, would rank the company as America's 13th most valuable firm if completed at $800 billion - trailing JPMorgan and Walmart but ahead of Broadcom ($63B 2024 revenue estimate).

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