Hebosheng: Analysis of Gold and Crude Oil's Strong Rally and Today's Trading Strategy

Deep News12-18 13:30

**Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:** On December 18, spot gold traded above $4,300 during the U.S. session, maintaining a strong consolidation within a high range. Market sentiment has oscillated between macroeconomic uncertainty and liquidity expectations, causing gold's "safe-haven" and "interest-rate-sensitive" attributes to alternate dominance. The focus remains on U.S. employment and consumption trends, inflation repricing, and the Fed's stance on growth-inflation trade-offs. For gold, the key lies not in individual data points but in whether the data combination alters the "policy path narrative." If evidence points to cooling demand alongside easing inflation, gold's fundamentals may strengthen further. Conversely, a scenario of "resilient growth but sticky inflation" could amplify yield and dollar impacts on prices. Technically, decisive consolidation near resistance levels will determine the trend's sustainability.

**Gold Technical Analysis:** On the daily chart, spot gold formed a Doji candlestick, indicating consolidation. Despite a pullback, prices closed above the MA5, with MACD in a bullish crossover, suggesting potential further gains. The 4-hour chart shows gold retreating after testing resistance at $4,354 but finding solid support near $4,270. Current price action reflects broad consolidation, with nonfarm payrolls delivering mixed signals. The strategy favors selling into rallies, with support at $4,270–$4,265 and resistance at $4,345–$4,350. Today’s trading approach recommends prioritizing short positions on rebounds, supplemented by selective longs. Key resistance: $4,360–$4,380; support: $4,310–$4,290.

**Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:** Oil prices edged up Wednesday but failed to sustain momentum after breaking below key support levels, trading near $55.67/bbl in Asia. Brent crude lost critical $60 and $59 thresholds, while WTI dipped below $55, hitting early-2021 lows. The breakdown triggered bearish sentiment, with fund managers slashing Brent net longs to October lows and CTAs heavily short. WTI’s implied volatility sank to April lows, with put skews signaling entrenched downside risks.

**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** The daily chart shows four consecutive bearish closes, with prices breaching the critical $56 support. The MA alignment confirms a downtrend. On the 1-hour chart, oil remains in a downtrend, with MACD hovering below zero, reflecting strong bearish momentum. Early Asian trading saw minor consolidation near $55, but further declines are anticipated. Today’s strategy leans toward selling rallies, with resistance at $58.0–$59.0 and support at $56.0–$55.0.

**Disclaimer:** Market conditions are subject to change. Investors should exercise caution and conduct independent analysis.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment