Abstract
Stellantis NV will release its quarterly results on February 26, 2026, Pre-Market, and our preview consolidates the latest financial data, company projections, and institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and earnings drivers over the near term.Market Forecast
For the current quarter, Stellantis NV projects total revenue of 78.55 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 61.53%. The company’s EPS estimate is 0.59, with a year-over-year decline of 79.48%. EBIT is forecast at -9.00 million with a year-over-year change of 0%. Forecasted gross profit margin and net profit margin for the quarter were not disclosed.The main business remains anchored by product sales, where last quarter “Goods” contributed 70.59 billion, or 95.06% of revenue; the highlight for this quarter will be volume, pricing discipline, and incentive cadence in core nameplates. The segment with the most promising potential for incremental contribution appears to be services, which delivered 2.43 billion last quarter, supported by aftersales, connected offerings, and customer care; year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
Stellantis NV reported last quarter revenue of 37.21 billion, a gross profit margin of 8.45%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -1.12 billion, a net profit margin of -3.02%, and adjusted EPS for the quarter was not provided in the finance dataset; total revenue rose 12.88% year over year.A notable highlight is that net profit’s quarter-on-quarter change was 0%, reflecting a stable sequential baseline after material non-operating charges weighed on bottom-line performance. Main business mix remained highly concentrated: “Goods” contributed 70.59 billion (95.06% of revenue), “Services provided” 2.43 billion (3.27%), “Interest from financial services activities” 0.89 billion (1.19%), and “Sale of assets under installment with repurchase commitment” 0.36 billion (0.48%); year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.
Current Quarter Outlook
Vehicle Sales and Core Operations
The core operations hinge on stabilizing volumes and the ability to balance price against promotional intensity across the portfolio. With current-quarter total revenue projected at 78.55 billion, year-over-year growth of 61.53% suggests a rebound in the top line, but the EPS outlook of 0.59 implies margin pressure, and the EBIT forecast of -9.00 million is consistent with a cautious profitability profile. The interplay between dealer inventory normalization, incentive levels, and SKU rationalization will influence gross margin trajectory, especially as the company aligns production with demand in key regions while limiting excess inventory build.Management’s recalibration of product cadence and capital allocation around electrified platforms and multi-energy strategies is expected to prioritize returns and working-capital discipline over near-term volume maximization. The company’s last quarter gross margin of 8.45% and net margin of -3.02% provide a baseline: any improvement in mix, fixed-cost absorption, or warranty accruals could lift margins modestly, while higher input costs, elevated freight, or targeted price adjustments may constrain that progress. With the quarter-on-quarter net profit change at 0%, investors will be watching whether cost actions and product-mix management can convert top-line acceleration into sustainable operating profit, particularly given the steep year-over-year EPS decline forecast.
Services and Financial Services
Services revenue of 2.43 billion last quarter and financial services interest income of 0.89 billion underscore two relatively stable, cash-generative pillars. These lines benefit from installed base growth and recurring engagement—maintenance packages, extended warranties, connectivity services, and captive-finance operations—offering revenue streams less volatile than pure vehicle shipments. In the current quarter, management’s focus on lifetime value per customer, bundling, and cross-sell could provide incremental margin tailwinds, even if headline vehicle margins remain pressured by competitive pricing or promotional dynamics.Financial services receivables quality, delinquency trends, and net interest income spread will be critical to monitoring earnings resilience this quarter. A disciplined underwriting posture and balanced term structures can sustain credit performance despite potential macro variability. While the revenue contribution from services and financial services is smaller than vehicle sales, the consistency and cash conversion of these segments helps cushion earnings volatility and supports liquidity planning amid broader strategic resets.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The most immediate stock-price drivers are the revenue print versus the 78.55 billion projection and the operating margin outcome versus investor expectations implied by a -9.00 million EBIT forecast. Any variance in realized gross margin from last quarter’s 8.45% and clarity on expense normalization will shape the EPS path relative to the 0.59 estimate and the year-over-year decline of 79.48%. Guidance on production pacing, incentive budget, and component cost trajectories will receive heightened attention, as will commentary on regional demand patterns and nameplate performance.Management updates on the strategic reset—timing of product revisions, capital commitments, and prioritization across ICE, hybrid, and EV portfolios—will set the tone for medium-term profitability. Investors are especially sensitive to capital allocation signals: dividend policy visibility, potential hybrid security issuance, and flex in capex envelopes for powertrain diversification. Finally, liquidity and balance sheet quality, including working capital normalization, inventory turnover, and any changes in financing facilities, will be closely parsed to assess the sustainability of the anticipated top-line rebound against the backdrop of near-term margin constraints.
Analyst Opinions
The collected period reflects a majority cautious stance, with approximately 25% bullish versus 75% cautious/bearish based on ratings and sentiment; we present the majority view. Multiple well-known institutions reiterated neutral positions, emphasizing near-term earnings risk and the need for tangible margin recovery. Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold stance, highlighting a watchful posture on execution and cash-generation milestones through the transition phase. RBC Capital also reiterated Hold, noting that short-term valuation support hinges on improved transparency around expense normalization and mix-driven margin uplift. Barclays kept a Hold view, pointing to an uncertain trajectory for near-term EBIT conversion amid strategy refocusing and the potential for uneven regional performance.The dominant institutional view frames this quarter as a proof point for operational discipline: demonstrate that revenue acceleration can translate into measurable margin stabilization and an improved EPS run rate. Cautious analysts are looking for concrete signals of cost capture—manufacturing footprint optimization, procurement savings, and warranty cost control—alongside evidence that pricing and incentives are being calibrated to protect brand equity while sustaining volumes. They also want reassurances on capital allocation prudence and liquidity, including the balance between investment in priority platforms and preserving financial flexibility.
Commentary from these institutions suggests investors should expect a conservative earnings profile this quarter, with scrutiny on management guidance credibility. The -9.00 million EBIT forecast and -79.48% year-over-year EPS change set a tempered baseline for profitability, while the 61.53% revenue growth projection raises the bar for operational leverage. Analysts in the cautious camp emphasize that the road to normalized earnings will be sequential, driven by incremental cost actions and mix improvements rather than a single catalyst, and they will weigh any upward revisions to outlook against the durability of margin drivers evidenced in the reported numbers.
In summary, the majority institutional perspective views this quarter as an essential checkpoint: confirm top-line momentum near the 78.55 billion mark, show progress in stabilizing gross margin above last quarter’s 8.45%, and lay out a pragmatic plan to turn operating losses implied by the -9.00 million EBIT forecast into positive traction over subsequent quarters. Clear and specific disclosures on product strategy, expense frameworks, and capital allocation are expected to be decisive in shaping the post-earnings narrative for Stellantis NV.
Comments