In November, the average spot price of domestic soybean meal declined month-on-month, aligning with previous expectations. The upward price momentum was primarily driven by rising international soybean prices, which lifted domestic soybean meal spot prices. Sublime China Information's analysis of market drivers suggests that December spot prices may maintain a modest upward trend.
According to Sublime China Information data, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal in November was RMB 3,060 per ton, up RMB 80 per ton (2.68%) from October and RMB 27 per ton (0.89%) year-on-year. China resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans in November, pushing U.S. soybean futures prices higher and providing upward support for soybean meal prices. Domestic soybean crushing operations remained at high capacity, though some plants planned shutdowns by month-end. Trading and delivery data showed solid performance, with increased forward basis trading in certain regions. Sublime China Information reported that 122 surveyed oil processors crushed 8.8141 million tons of soybeans in November, down 87,900 tons from October. The spot basis narrowed to RMB 31 per ton as of November 28, weakening slightly from RMB 40 per ton on November 3.
**December 2025 Price Driver Assessment** **Supply Outlook**: Soybean supply is expected to decline seasonally. Sublime China Information's estimates show soybean arrivals in December-February at 8.64 million, 6.50 million, and 4.50 million tons respectively, indicating tightening supply. Partial plant shutdowns in December-January may further reduce domestic supply, leading to notable inventory drawdowns for soybeans and soybean meal, offering price support.
**International Market**: U.S. soybeans face export pressure, with focus on Chinese demand. USDA data shows China has purchased over 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October 30, meeting about 30% of its annual import target of 12 million tons. The market remains cautiously optimistic about demand, keeping U.S. soybean futures range-bound and exerting a neutral impact on domestic soybean meal prices.
**Demand Outlook**: Demand is expected to stay elevated. High hog inventories and colder temperatures in December may accelerate weight gain, coinciding with peak demand for heavy hogs, supporting feed consumption. Soybean meal demand is projected to remain strong.
In summary, tightening supply and steady demand in December may lend upward momentum to soybean meal prices, though ample supply could cap gains.
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