Asia's economy is leading the world with a real growth rate of 4.7% in 2025 and an expected growth rate of 4.5% in 2026. Experts point out that while Asia's integrated development faces numerous pressures, the region's market potential, industrial complementarity, and dividends from digital technology provide a solid foundation. Multiple opportunities, including the shift of AI development focus from Europe and America to Asia, the integrated development of digitalization and green transformation, and the continuous improvement of regional "hard connectivity" and "soft connectivity," are propelling Asia onto a sustainable development path characterized by "unity in diversity."
The 4.7% real growth rate highlights Asia's leading position in the global economy. At the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, the question of why the world economy's resilience lies in Asia became a key focus. "According to the latest data we have, Asia's real economic growth reached 4.7% in 2025, higher than our team's previous forecast of 4.5%. This fully demonstrates the development resilience of the Asian economy amidst international fluctuations," said Zhang Yuyan, Dean of the School of International Political Economy at the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The "Asian Economic Outlook and Integration Process 2026 Annual Report" analysis suggests that the share of Asian economies' GDP in the world economy will continue to rise. Calculated by purchasing power parity, it is expected to increase from 49.2% in 2025 to 49.7% in 2026. Asia remains the primary engine of world economic growth, with an expected growth rate of 4.5% in 2026. "Many believe the Asian Century has arrived," said Zhang Jun, Secretary-General of the Boao Forum for Asia.
Looking at sub-regions, the South Asian region is expected to lead Asia with a projected economic growth rate of 6.3% this year. "From a demographic perspective, the South Asian region features a significantly young labor force. Taking India as an example, its median age is about 28. The continuous release of the demographic dividend is a key factor supporting the high growth forecast for South Asia, and Central Asia possesses a similar demographic advantage. However, rapid population growth is a double-edged sword," Zhang Yuyan noted. While the labor supply increases, it also places higher demands on job creation, and technological progress will bring structural adjustments to the existing stock of employment.
Behind Asia's expected 4.5% economic growth rate are the combined results of structural optimization, momentum transformation, and deepened cooperation. The interdependence within the "Asian factory" began to stabilize and rebound in 2024 after a period of fluctuation, further consolidating Asia's core position in the global value chain. Experts at the forum pointed out that ASEAN's dependence on intra-Asia remains stable at around 70%, with its dependence on China increasing, highlighting its role as a regional hub. China's supporting role in the regional value chain is prominent. The dependence of ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea on China all exceeds 20%. In 2025, ASEAN and China were each other's largest trading partners for the sixth consecutive year.
"It is noteworthy that economies like Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia are also rapidly ascending in their positions within the global value chain," said Lin Guijun, former Vice President of the University of International Business and Economics.
In recent years, China's average annual contribution to world economic growth has remained around 30%, representing the greatest certainty amid global uncertainties. Mu Hong, Vice Chairman of the Boao Forum for Asia, stated that the new quality productive forces cultivated by China through technological and industrial innovation are being transformed into new economic momentum.
How will China's development of new quality productive forces impact the global industrial landscape? Denis Depoux, Global Managing Director of Roland Berger, used the term "new leadership" to describe the relationship between China and the world as he sees it. He said China's role in the world economy has evolved from a simple "producer" and "buyer" to an "innovator" and "trendsetter." Furthermore, China is deepening cooperation with Global South countries to jointly face the complex international environment. For international investors, China offers crucial development opportunities.
Jiang Xiaojing, Director of the National Data Expert Advisory Committee, emphasized that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the industrial relationship between China and developed countries will undergo a substantive shift, moving comprehensively from complementary division of labor to horizontal competitive division of labor. The latter occurs at comparable product quality and technological levels, leading to deeper competition and cooperation relationships and posing challenges for domestic industries to adjust and upgrade. "The industries and enterprises that benefit from this round of opening up will see some changes," she added.
Against a backdrop of rising global uncertainty, economic growth no longer depends solely on speed but increasingly on a system's adaptability, resilience, and sustainability. The "Sustainable Development of Asia and the World 2026 Annual Report" indicates that the digital economy has become a significant driver of Asian economic development, with its potential accelerating rapidly. The scale of Asia's digital economy reached $27 trillion in 2025, accounting for 46% of GDP. To put $27 trillion into perspective, experts at the forum explained it is roughly equivalent to the total US GDP in 2023, or the market capitalization of six to seven Apple companies.
Simultaneously, the global center of gravity for artificial intelligence development is shifting from Europe and America to Asia. Asian economies are leveraging their vast digital populations, rich application scenarios, and systematic policy support to transition from AI followers to leaders. Hu Jianyue, Partner in Charge of Climate Change and Sustainability Services at Deloitte China, stated that in a complex global environment, Asia is developing unique digital resilience, manifested in four key trends: Asia-Pacific digital infrastructure shifting from "coverage-oriented" to "resilience-oriented"; the普惠化 application of AI reshaping productivity structures; continuous upgrading of digital supply chains, achieving parallel paths of autonomy and regional collaboration; and green digital technologies leading the low-carbon transition while becoming a new engine for economic growth.
In the wave of Asia leading sustainable development through digital transformation, China's digital economy scale continues to lead. The aforementioned report shows that as of June 2025, China's total digital economy exceeded 50 trillion yuan, accounting for 43.1% of GDP; it is projected to surpass 80 trillion yuan by 2030. Digital resilience represents the ability to operate continuously, recover quickly, and self-evolve in uncertain environments.
"The trend towards AI integration within Asia is also becoming increasingly evident, forming three tiers based on the differentiated capabilities and practical foundations of various economies: 'leading,' 'application demonstration,' and 'potential cultivation'," said Chen Lan, Managing Partner of Deloitte China Research Center. She noted that the diversity and差异性 of Asian economies, once seen as challenges, have now become a vital source of overall regional resilience in the digital era.
However, driving sustainable development through digital transformation in Asia still faces transnational challenges such as differing technical standards, geopolitical fluctuations, and AI ethics governance, requiring regional coordination to find solutions. In this regard, Chen Lan proposed three recommendations: establishing a regional data governance framework and a joint regulatory platform to ensure data security and compliant sharing; focusing on key scenarios like smart manufacturing and fintech to create replicable regional innovation models; and building a transnational ecosystem for talent cultivation and mobility, leveraging R&D and implementation cooperation to help Asia gain strategic initiative in global AI competition.
Comments