Gold Market Analysis: On April 16, the gold market saw a slight increase during early Asian trading, with spot gold trading near $4,822 per ounce, up approximately 0.6%. The continued weakening of the U.S. dollar provided support for gold prices. On Wednesday, April 15, spot gold retreated sharply after hitting a one-month high of $4,871.28, closing near $4,790 with a daily decline of nearly 1%. U.S. gold futures also fell by 0.5%, settling at $4,823.60. Within just 24 hours, gold shifted from being a safe-haven asset to a target for profit-taking, driven by complex reactions to statements about de-escalating tensions with Iran.
From a technical perspective, gold maintained a volatile pattern, fluctuating within a range as anticipated. With ongoing uncertainty in news developments, gold is expected to continue its consolidation phase. The key resistance level for the day is near $4,870. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains within a broad range, repeatedly testing support around $4,780. A break below this level could signal further weakness. In the short term, direction may be determined within the $4,780–$4,870 range. If gold faces resistance at $4,870 during early trading, a short position may be considered, while support near $4,780 should be monitored. Overall, the recommended strategy for gold today is to prioritize buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key resistance levels are between $4,870 and $4,920, while support lies between $4,780 and $4,730.
Oil Market Analysis: International oil prices declined during early Asian trading on Thursday, trading near $87.93 per barrel, primarily due to expectations of eased tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Market surveys indicate that both sides are considering extending the current ceasefire by about two weeks to facilitate a long-term agreement. Mediators are actively working toward compromises on key issues such as transit through the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear concerns, alleviating market fears of supply disruptions. The drop in oil prices reflects a reduction in risk premium, particularly after recent geopolitical tensions drove prices higher, prompting some investors to take profits.
Technically, oil prices have moved below the moving average system on the daily chart, indicating a shift in the medium-term trend. The momentum suggests a downward trajectory, with the MACD indicator showing increased bearish momentum. In the short term (1-hour chart), oil prices are consolidating near recent lows without establishing new lows. The overall trend remains downward, with prices still suppressed by the moving averages. It is anticipated that oil will test support near $87 during the day. The recommended strategy for oil today is to prioritize selling on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key resistance levels are between $98.0 and $103.0, while support lies between $85.0 and $80.0.
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