Analysis of Gold Price Movements: The brief stabilization and recovery in gold prices on June 30th ultimately proved to be fleeting. The technical rebound appeared as a recovery but lacked substantive incremental capital support, making it vulnerable in the face of the overarching bearish trend. Short-term rebounds are merely illusory; one must not blindly view minor recoveries as opportunities to buy at the bottom. Each time the price rebounds and faces resistance, it presents a suitable occasion to go short in line with the prevailing trend. Adhering to the longer-term cycle trend and managing position risk is essential to avoid drawdown risks amidst volatile, oscillating market conditions.
Previously, gold prices exhibited a corrective rebound from oversold lows, leading some funds to mistakenly believe the downtrend had bottomed out and reversed. However, viewed in its entirety, this rebound consistently lacked sustained buying support, leaving the foundation for a bullish counterattack extremely weak and harboring risks of a renewed decline. Yesterday's trading session marked a definitive turning point: the bullish momentum for a rally was abruptly interrupted, and bearish forces regrouped to exert downward pressure on gold prices, erasing a significant portion of the earlier rebound gains. In today's early session, gold opened at 4018 and immediately faced sustained downward pressure, probing a low of 3942 before maintaining a pattern of weak, low-level consolidation. Although there is a desire for a bullish fightback, it is completely unable to withstand the selling pressure from bears, leading to a renewed increase in market pessimism.
The daily chart closed with a substantial bearish candlestick, directly engulfing the corrective gains accumulated over recent days. The highs of the rebounds are successively lower, indicating the formal conclusion of the brief corrective period. The market has decisively re-entered a downward channel, with bears once again firmly in control of the market rhythm. The trading strategy should firmly adhere to going short in line with the trend.
The key short-term resistance is pegged at the 4000 psychological level, while the core support below lies around the 3900 mark. The daily moving averages are arranged in a bearish alignment overall, confirming an intact downward structure. If the gold price rebounds into the 3998-4000 range during the day, one can enter a short position following the trend, with downside targets at 3960 and 3930. A stop-loss can be placed just above 4015.
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