GTHT has released a research report maintaining its "Outperform" rating on West China Cement (02233), forecasting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 at RMB 936 million, RMB 1.605 billion, and RMB 2.073 billion respectively, with EPS of RMB 0.17, RMB 0.29, and RMB 0.38.
Given the company's strong growth profile as a leader in overseas expansion, the broker believes a 2026 PE of 13x is justified, yielding a fair value of HK$2.54 (RMB/HKD = 0.87:1).
It also assigns a 2026 PB of 1.3x, implying a fair value of HK$3.63. Taking a conservative approach, the broker selects HK$2.54 as the target price.
The main points from GTHT are as follows.
Uganda cement prices remain firm, with attention on exchange rate fluctuations. According to the broker's tracking data, the PPI for Manufacture of cement, lime and plaster published by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics remains at a high level, and has held firm even after dollarization.
The Ugandan shilling has recently depreciated rapidly against the US dollar, which warrants further attention.
Ethiopia cement prices are recovering. After the shock from currency reform, Ethiopia's exchange rate has remained stable over the past year, providing favorable conditions for corporate profitability.
Ethiopian cement prices have maintained an upward trend this year, with the national cement market price at approximately US$117 per tonne in March, around US$127 per tonne in June, and about US$150 per tonne in September.
Central Asia demand is robust. Uzbekistan's cement output surged 31.2% year-on-year in 2025, and on that high base, output still grew 6% in the first eight months of this year, reflecting strong demand.
The broker judges that cement prices in Uzbekistan are likely to rise steadily.
Risk warnings: exchange rate risk, foreign exchange control risk, and cost escalation risk.
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