International oil prices briefly surpassed $65 per barrel for the first time since last November, following increased US pressure on Iran and an attack on tankers near a key Kazakh crude oil export terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast. Brent crude futures extended their gains from the previous three trading sessions, with a cumulative increase of over 6%. This comes just days after the Trump administration took a surprising move to seize control of Venezuela's oil production, and US President Donald Trump announced a 25% import tariff on goods from all countries "engaged in commercial dealings with Iran," while not ruling out the possibility of military action against the Persian Gulf nation. Simultaneously, the primary trigger for the crude supply disruption stems from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, responsible for loading Kazakh crude onto tankers. A combination of factors including severe weather, drone attacks, and equipment maintenance is threatening crude exports. On Tuesday, two vessels were attacked near the terminal, highlighting new risks to crude supplies; the terminal's loading capacity has now been reduced by nearly half to approximately 900,000 barrels per day. Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer for Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group, stated in an interview: "Geopolitical risks are at a historically high level right now, which is precisely the trigger for the current oil price surge."
The risk of soaring oil prices has also manifested in the options market, where traders are demanding the highest premiums for call contracts since the airstrikes on Iran by Israel and the US last year. On Monday, trading volume for Brent crude call options hit a record high, partly driven by large bets wagering on rising prices. Previously, oil prices had fallen for five consecutive months amid expectations of a crude supply glut, but a recovery trend emerged at the beginning of the new year. This rally is set against the backdrop of US intervention in Venezuela's affairs and control over its leader Nicolas Maduro, followed by a further escalation of turmoil in Iran. The rebound has caught the oil market, which was previously saturated with bearish bets, off guard. Although Iranian officials claim the protests have been quelled, unrest appears to persist, with a rights group warning that the civilian death toll may have reached several thousand. Iran's daily crude exports account for approximately 2% of global demand, and the anticipation of a potential disruption to its export supply has somewhat alleviated market concerns about a global crude surplus. Florence Schmit, an analyst at Rabobank, said: "A regime change in Iran might ultimately exacerbate the downward trend in the crude market, as the fundamental reality of ample supply remains unchanged. However, if this turmoil directly or indirectly impacts energy transportation, oil prices could experience another round of increases."
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