PX and PTA futures surged on December 22, with their main contracts gaining 3.98% and 4.52%, respectively. The rally was driven by multiple factors:
1. **Positive Long-Term Outlook for PX/PTA**: - For PX, despite current high operating rates, the lack of new capacity additions until Q3 2026 has intensified structural supply tightness. Maintenance schedules suggest PX supply will remain constrained in H1 2024 amid low inventories. Meanwhile, PXN spreads continue widening as crude oil downside appears limited. - For PTA, no new capacity is expected in 2026, marking the end of a concentrated expansion phase. Downstream polyester capacity growth is set to ease PTA supply pressure, supporting margin recovery.
2. **Improving PTA Fundamentals**: - Near-term polyester production remains above 91%, while PTA plant maintenance keeps supply tight. December inventories are declining, with no significant buildup expected in January. Downstream restocking demand has strengthened spot market premiums.
3. **Technical Breakout**: - After multiple failed attempts, PX/PTA prices broke through key resistance levels—the long-term downtrend line and 250-day moving average—signaling a bullish trend reversal.
**Additional Observations**: - U.S. gasoline cracks remain weak, but aromatics procurement has picked up. South Korea exported 4.5k tons of PX, 1.48k tons of toluene, and 0.43k tons of MX to the U.S. in December (1–20).
**Outlook**: While the PX/PTA uptrend is intact, rapid gains driven by speculative positioning warrant caution. Downstream textile orders and operating rates are declining, with polyester filament margins turning negative. Major producers plan voluntary output cuts (10% for POY, 15% for FDY) to stabilize prices—monitor implementation.
**Risks**: Macro policy shifts and crude oil volatility.
*Investment advisory qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289*
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