Abstract
ASML Holding NV will report first‑quarter 2026 results on April 15, 2026 Pre-Market, with investor attention centered on revenue around €8.39 billion, adjusted EPS near €6.27, delivery mix across systems and services, and the pace of backlog conversion alongside order trends and share‑buyback execution.
Market Forecast
For the first quarter of 2026, current expectations indicate revenue of €8.39 billion, up 8.78% year over year, adjusted EPS of €6.27, up 10.10% year over year, and EBIT of €2.87 billion, up 9.46% year over year; no explicit gross margin or net margin forecast is available for the quarter. The main business is expected to remain centered on system shipments and service support, with delivery timing and mix guiding near‑term margins and cash generation. The most promising area is EUV systems, supported by recent net bookings of €7.40 billion within a €13.20 billion overall intake and a backlog of €38.80 billion, underscoring shipment visibility.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, ASML Holding NV reported revenue of €9.72 billion (up 4.92% year over year), a gross profit margin of 52.16%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of €2.84 billion with a 29.22% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of €7.34 (up 7.31% year over year). A key financial highlight was the surge in order intake, with net bookings of €13.20 billion including €7.40 billion for EUV systems, which bolstered the backlog to €38.80 billion and enhanced visibility into upcoming deliveries. Within the revenue mix, system sales contributed €7.58 billion (78.04% of total), while service and field‑options revenue reached €2.13 billion (21.96% of total), illustrating the breadth of installed‑base monetization alongside new system shipments.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: System Shipments and Services
For the first quarter of 2026, ASML Holding NV’s main business is guided by delivery timing and product mix across systems and services, with revenue projected at €8.39 billion and adjusted EPS near €6.27. Shipment allocation between higher‑priced tools and mature‑node systems will influence reported gross margin, even though explicit margin guidance for the quarter is not provided. The backlog built in the prior quarter offers a clear path for near‑term conversions into revenue as manufacturing slots are scheduled and installations progress. Seasonal patterns and customer readiness can shift revenue between quarters, which means a portion of high‑value systems may land toward quarter‑end or slide into subsequent periods depending on site acceptance and logistics. The service and field‑options business, which accounted for 21.96% of last quarter’s revenue, should provide steadier quarter‑to‑quarter contributions driven by maintenance, upgrades, and productivity enhancements for the installed base, partially cushioning revenue variability from large tool deliveries. Overall, management and market estimates imply a quarter that remains sensitive to mix and shipping cadence but anchored by a substantial backlog that continues to convert into top‑line and operating profit.
Most Promising Business: EUV Systems Momentum
EUV systems stand out as the most promising area for ASML Holding NV in the near term, supported by the prior quarter’s €7.40 billion EUV net bookings within a €13.20 billion overall intake and a €38.80 billion backlog. A recently disclosed transaction indicated ASML’s Korea unit will supply EUV scanners to SK hynix valued at approximately 11.95 trillion won (about 7.90 billion US dollars), extending multi‑year delivery visibility for advanced‑memory and logic nodes. These large multi‑tool orders typically span several years, and the conversion schedule depends on customer facility buildouts, installation readiness, and internal production sequencing—factors that can shift revenue recognition but provide a durable pipeline of shipments. Given the higher average selling prices and complex configurations of EUV tools, this segment tends to carry significant operating leverage: as installation activity scales, EBIT can show a favorable response even when quarterly revenue fluctuates with delivery patterns. Ongoing innovation initiatives, including higher‑power EUV light sources that have been discussed with potential wafer‑throughput benefits over the decade, point to a roadmap that can augment customer productivity and throughput, offering a structural case for multi‑year adoption. Altogether, the EUV program’s bookings strength and visibility are central to the quarter’s qualitative outlook and remain a key locus for investor attention.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Three factors are likely to shape near‑term stock performance for ASML Holding NV. First, the bookings‑to‑shipments dynamic: investors will be watching whether new orders maintain the elevated pace seen in the previous quarter and how that pipeline translates into scheduled deliveries for the remainder of 2026; any indication of sustained high‑value orders from logic or memory customers could reinforce confidence in revenue stability beyond the first quarter. Second, margin commentary and operating efficiency: with the prior quarter’s gross margin at 52.16% and net margin at 29.22%, the focus will be on how product mix, services growth, and cost controls influence first‑quarter profitability; commentary around installation timing and after‑sales attachment rates will also be carefully parsed. Third, capital allocation and cash deployment: ongoing execution under the share‑buyback program and visibility on dividend trajectory can influence per‑share metrics and investor sentiment, particularly in periods where delivery mix creates temporary EPS variability. The company’s updates on advanced packaging initiatives and research on larger chip designs or higher‑throughput systems can add a strategic dimension to the narrative, and any disclosures around expected milestones may guide longer‑term earnings models. Foreign‑exchange movements and supply‑chain cadence are additional variables that can modulate quarterly outcomes, especially when margins are sensitive to high‑value tools landing near cutoffs.
Beyond these core drivers, the installed base—represented by last quarter’s €2.13 billion in service and field‑options revenue—provides a recurring layer of support. Sustained demand for maintenance, productivity upgrades, and field options across regions helps smooth revenue between shipment peaks and can bolster gross margin stability due to favorable service economics. Where customers are accelerating transitions to more advanced process technologies, higher utilization of shipped systems can create pull‑through for services, raising the fraction of recurring revenue in periods when new system shipment volumes moderate. The balance between new system growth and installed‑base monetization will be central to how the quarter’s profitability trends are interpreted by the market.
Finally, investors will monitor how the company’s guidance for the remainder of 2026 aligns with the first quarter’s performance. The forecasted revenue growth rate of 8.78% year over year and adjusted EPS growth of 10.10% for the quarter establish a baseline; management’s tone on demand momentum, capacity planning, lead times, and order funnel composition will inform whether full‑year growth expectations need adjustment. Updates on large account deliveries—such as the multi‑year EUV program with SK hynix—and commentary on logistics or site‑readiness timelines will be important context for shipment phasing in the second and third quarters. Taken together, the combination of bookings strength, backlog conversion, and mix‑driven margin outcomes is poised to define how the market receives the April 15, 2026 update.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent research in the current period, the view on ASML Holding NV is predominantly bullish. Within the collected opinions from January 1, 2026 to April 8, 2026, the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary skews decisively positive; Buy or equivalent constructive stances clearly dominate, with no directly bearish calls observed in the sample and only isolated neutral views. Because bullish opinions form the majority, the analysis below focuses on that side.
Several well‑known institutions have reiterated or raised constructive views, citing strong order intake, a substantial backlog, and continued momentum in advanced lithography systems. UBS maintained a Buy rating with a €1,500 price target, framing the outlook as supported by adoption of next‑generation systems and the durability of demand across leading customers; subsequent reiterations during the quarter remain aligned with this thesis. Bank of America’s Didier Scemama reaffirmed a Buy rating and increased the price target to €1,598, explicitly arguing that growth in advanced tool shipments and the multi‑year order book can offset external uncertainties and sustain earnings expansion; the report emphasizes that advanced‑node equipment demand underpins multi‑quarter revenue visibility. Morgan Stanley’s Lee Simpson maintained a Buy rating with a €1,400 price target and highlighted that strong bookings and supportive guidance point to resilient conversion into revenue and operating income in 2026, even with quarterly variability tied to shipment timing. Barclays, through analyst Simon Coles, reiterated a Buy stance and signaled confidence in the revenue trajectory for 2026, while Bernstein’s David Dai also maintained a Buy rating with an increased target in the period under review, anchoring the bullish case to a robust backlog and multi‑year technology roadmap.
Additional commentary from Citi’s Andrew Gardiner has kept a Buy rating, underscoring the adequacy of bookings to support near‑term deliveries and the constructive alignment between customer roadmaps and tool capability. RBC, which raised its price target to $1,625 and kept an Outperform rating in the current window, described ASML Holding NV as well‑positioned to benefit from healthy wafer fabrication spending trends and secular growth in advanced lithography tools, noting that recent order momentum provides a solid platform for conversion into 2026 revenue. Complementing those views, aggregated assessments in late January characterized the average recommendation as overweight, with mean price targets implying upside from prevailing levels at that time. The recurring theme across these notes is that the first‑quarter cadence should be judged not only on units shipped but also on the context of an elevated backlog, newly signed multi‑tool programs, and visibility into second‑half installation schedules.
The bullish camp’s analytical focus for the first quarter centers on three pillars. First is top‑line trajectory: with revenue expectations of €8.39 billion for the quarter and year‑over‑year growth of 8.78%, most analysts see room for the full‑year outlook to remain intact, conditional on bookings staying healthy and backlog conversion remaining on schedule. Second is earnings quality: the expected 10.10% year‑over‑year rise in adjusted EPS to about €6.27 suggests that mix and operational discipline could sustain profitability even without explicit gross‑margin guidance; analysts will gauge commentary on field‑option attachment rates and installation timing to refine near‑term margin models. Third is strategic momentum: multi‑year EUV orders, including the large SK hynix program, and discussions around productivity improvements and advanced packaging initiatives offer supportive signals for medium‑term growth beyond a single quarter’s results.
In synthesizing these perspectives, the prevailing bullish view anticipates that ASML Holding NV’s first‑quarter update will reaffirm the 2026 growth narrative rather than redefine it. The quarter’s reported revenue and earnings are expected to align with the broad contours of existing estimates, while qualitative commentary on the order funnel, backlog scheduling, and technology execution will likely be the key catalysts. Should bookings remain solid and installation milestones track to plan, analysts expect that the company can sustain its improvement in operating metrics as the year progresses. With Buy ratings from multiple global institutions and price targets that reflect confidence in the multi‑year shipment pipeline, the consensus tilt remains positive heading into April 15, 2026, and the majority view is that the quarter will support the ongoing growth trajectory established by recent order and backlog trends.
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