On May 6, the international gold market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold prices regaining buying support after a previous pullback. A marginal decline in oil prices and weaker-than-expected U.S. data jointly improved risk sentiment. Market participants widely believe that gold prices have stabilized near the lower end of their trading range, easing earlier panic over the correction and gradually reviving short-term trading activity. Multiple market analysts noted that this round of stabilization reflects a temporary balance in macroeconomic factors, while the long-term allocation logic for precious metals as cross-cycle assets remains unchanged.
In terms of macro policy, major central banks continue to maintain a cautious stance, holding off on policy changes, and the market remains watchful of the pace of interest rate cuts. Analysts suggest that the slight drop in oil prices has reduced the tail risk of accelerating inflation, providing some cushion against expectations of rising real interest rates and offering temporary support for zero-yield assets. Institutions such as UBS maintain a constructive outlook, believing that a long-term weak U.S. dollar and the approaching interest rate cut cycle will jointly drive gold prices higher in the medium term, with long-term targets set around $5,900 per ounce. The trend of diversification in emerging market reserves continues, and long-term capital patience is still accumulating.
From a technical perspective, gold's daily chart shows stabilization near the lower end of the range, gradually alleviating pressure from short-term moving averages. MACD momentum has marginally improved, and the KDJ indicator has risen from oversold territory, indicating that bearish forces have been temporarily exhausted. Institutions also note that global central banks' gold purchasing pace remains uninterrupted, physical gold demand in Asia remains steady, and marginal changes in ETF holdings, wedding season demand in India and the Middle East, and COMEX futures delivery ratios are key indicators for observing real capital sentiment.
Market analysts expect gold prices to fluctuate within the range of $4,500 to $4,800 per ounce in the short term, with directional moves depending on marginal changes in inflation data, central bank rhetoric, and geopolitical risks. Multiple institutions emphasize that investors should fully understand the attributes of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, focus on key indicators such as real interest rates, the U.S. dollar index, and global risk sentiment, and avoid chasing rallies or selling off around data releases. The market advises investors to allocate funds in batches according to their risk tolerance, maintaining a steady pace through the current policy observation window.
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