Macro Strategy | Breaking New Ground Towards a New Equilibrium – 2026 Macro Strategy Outlook (Strategy Section)

Deep News12-22 15:44

**Core Views** 1. **2025 Performance Review** Driven by a financial cycle downturn, global order restructuring, and deepening industrial revolution, major asset classes diverged in 2025. Gold surged over 60% as rapid global reconfiguration severely undermined USD credibility. A-shares experienced a structural bull market led by new-economy sectors amid systemic revaluation (e.g., "DeepSeek Moment"). Bonds entered volatility due to weakened "asset scarcity" logic and economic rebalancing policies, while crude oil and property prices continued to adjust.

2. **Asset Allocation Framework & Stage Analysis** Based on the "3D Macro Asset Allocation Pyramid," 2026 marks a complex transition: - **Strategic Layer**: China’s financial cycle remains downward, warranting a defensive stance. - **Disturbance Layer**: Geopolitical risks shift from chaos to ordered confrontation, though "black swan" vigilance persists. - **Tactical Layer**: Likely "economic bottoming + monetary tightening convergence," creating windows for commodity/equity opportunities. **2026 Allocation Core**: Defensive foundation + tactical aggression + risk management.

3. **2026 Outlook**: **Equities/Commodities Lead, Structure Decides** - **Equities**: Earnings-driven rally expected, focusing on: 1) High-visibility tech (AI, semiconductors); 2) Quality offshore expansion (EV parts, digital infra); 3) Anti-involution beneficiaries (new energy, chemicals); 4) Non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum); 5) High-dividend assets. - **Bonds**: 10Y CGB yield range 1.6%-2.1%, "wide volatility + mild uptrend," with early-year rate-cut windows. - **Commodities**: Structural divergence favors base metals (copper/aluminum) on fiscal expansion/upgrading demand; crude oil muted by oversupply. - **Gold**: Consolidation after 2025’s 60% rally; strategic hold amid USD weakness + central bank demand.

**Risks**: AI bubble burst, geopolitical shocks, inflation surprises, slower China recovery.

**Detailed Analysis** 1. **2025 Recap**: Gold > A-shares > Bonds > Commodities > Property Asset performance reflected: - Domestic financial cycle downturn (credit contraction); - Global order fragmentation (USD weakness); - AI-driven industrial shifts (capital reallocation).

2. **3D Allocation Framework** - **Strategic**: Credit/GDP gap + property prices gauge systemic risks. - **Tactical**: RECI (economic cycle) + FCI (financial conditions) matrix for mid-term rotation. - **Disturbance**: Geopolitical risk index for exogenous shocks.

3. **2026 Themes** - **Equities**: Earnings rebound as PPI-CPI gap narrows; liquidity from global rebalancing + domestic savings rotation. Valuations reasonable (A-share P/E at 43.1x, median since 2001). - **Tech**: Focus on AI commercialization (data centers → applications) and semicon upcycle. - **Offshore**: EV/mechanical exports + digital/green infra (ASEAN/Africa "Belt & Road" contracts +87% YoY). - **Anti-involution**: Policy-driven margin recovery in new energy/chemicals. - **Metals**: Copper/aluminum as "new productivity resources" (security + AI demand). - **Dividends**: 5% yield allure amid low-rate era (insurance inflows +36.2% YoY).

- **Bonds**: H2 pressure from PPI recovery (1.6-2.1% yield range); early-year rate-cut potential (10bp). - **Commodities**: Base metals > energy. Copper/aluminum benefit from global fiscal stimulus (US/EU/JP capex) + AI/green transition; crude oil capped by financial cycle. - **Gold**: Long-term bullish (central bank buying + USD erosion), but 2026 may see consolidation post-140% 3Y rally.

**Key Charts Referenced**: - Fig 5: PPI-CPI gap vs. corporate profits. - Fig 8: Global AI infrastructure spend. - Fig 10: High-tech exports (60% of China’s total). - Fig 15: Dividend yield vs. 10Y bond yield.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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