Major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen rebounded today, with the ChiNext Index climbing 3.78% to close at its highest level since late 2021. Trading volume across the two markets expanded to nearly 2.34 trillion yuan. Internationally, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly urged Israel to adopt a "lower profile" in military operations in Lebanon, aligning with diplomatic efforts for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. This statement has reduced the tail risk of escalating regional conflicts. Furthermore, the U.S. and Iran confirmed that initial talks will be held in Pakistan on April 11. Although significant differences in terms remain, the initiation of negotiations itself is a positive signal for improving risk appetite. Domestically, March inflation data showed a notable pattern of "strong PPI recovery and moderate CPI performance." The Producer Price Index (PPI) turned positive year-on-year, rising 0.5% compared to a 0.9% decline the previous month, marking the first increase after 41 consecutive months of decline. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% year-on-year but fell 0.7% month-on-month, while the core CPI increased 1.1% year-on-year, indicating a mild recovery in end-consumer demand. While short-term markets may remain sensitive to event-driven catalysts, structural opportunities are beginning to focus on April's earnings reports. Sectors with fundamental support, such as technology and advanced manufacturing, may show relative strength. Investors are advised to maintain patience and seek certainty amid market fluctuations.
On April 10, the National Bureau of Statistics released national inflation data for March 2026. The data showed that the CPI increased 1.0% year-on-year but decreased 0.7% month-on-month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 1.1% year-on-year. The PPI shifted from a 0.9% year-on-year decline in the previous month to a 0.5% increase, marking the first rise after 41 consecutive months of decline. On a monthly basis, the PPI climbed 1.0%, the largest month-on-month increase in 48 months.
The concurrent shift of the PPI into positive territory and the moderate performance of the CPI create a relatively favorable policy environment. On one hand, the recovery in industrial prices helps improve corporate profit expectations and boost investment confidence. On the other hand, end-consumer prices are not overheating, preserving room for monetary policy to remain appropriately accommodative. Key variables to monitor going forward include: disruptions to international oil prices due to developments in the Middle East, whether the rise in PPI can smoothly transmit from upstream to downstream sectors, and whether the PPI recovery will prompt a reassessment of the monetary policy path.
On April 9 local time, former President Trump stated in an interview that he had asked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to adopt a "lower profile" in military actions in Lebanon to align with U.S. diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire with Iran. The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold their first round of talks in Pakistan on April 11, though significant differences remain on ceasefire terms, primarily concerning Iran's uranium enrichment activities, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East.
Trump's call for Israel to act with restraint is a complementary diplomatic move to advance U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, aimed at reducing interference from the northern front on discussions regarding Strait of Hormuz passage. The U.S. display of a restrained posture helps stabilize expectations for the global energy supply chain. However, if U.S.-Israel disagreements evolve into repeated actions, geopolitical risk premiums could reignite. The outcome of the first round of U.S.-Iran talks on April 11 will be a critical observation point.
On April 9, relevant departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration jointly held a symposium with companies in the power and energy storage battery industry to discuss standardizing competition order. The meeting emphasized the importance and urgency of addressing "internal卷式" (involution-style) competition, firmly opposing unreasonable and unfair competitive practices, and maintaining a healthy, orderly market environment. Efforts will continue to advance capacity early-warning and adjustment, regulate price competition, shorten supplier payment terms, strengthen product quality supervision, combat intellectual property infringement, and address the "externalization of internal卷" (involution), while also providing guidance to standardize local investment promotion activities.
The joint deployment by four departments to standardize competition in the power and energy storage battery industry is consistent with previous "anti-involution" policies. The battery industry has long faced challenges such as low-price bidding, disorderly capacity expansion, and excessively long supply chain payment terms. Measures like shortening payment terms and regulating price competition directly address profitability difficulties across the industrial chain. The advancement of a "negative list for irrational competitive behavior" signals that industry governance is moving from principle-based advocacy to a listed, actionable stage. The restructuring of industry competition order is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with leading battery companies possessing technological barriers and cost advantages likely to further solidify their market share during this reshuffle.
On April 10, the three major A-share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3986.22 points, up 0.51%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14309.47 points, up 2.24%; the ChiNext Index finished at 3448.79 points, up 3.78%; and the STAR 100 Index closed at 1591.18 points, up 1.43%. Among Shenwan primary industries, power equipment, non-bank financials, and communications led the gains, rising 3.50%, 2.51%, and 2.04% respectively. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery, transportation, and non-ferrous metals were among the decliners, falling 0.71%, 0.39%, and 0.35% respectively. A total of 3756 stocks advanced, while 1381 declined.
Market turnover reached 2337.769 billion yuan, higher than the previous trading session. The balance of margin lending and short selling stood at 2608.711 billion yuan as of the last close, showing an increase from the prior day.
Comments