Rubber: Short-term consolidation is expected to persist.
On Tuesday, domestic whole milk rubber was priced at 17,000 yuan per ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day. Thai 20# mixed rubber was at 16,630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan.
On the raw material front, Thai rubber latex closed at 78.00 baht per kilogram yesterday, down 1.00 baht. Thai cup lump closed at 67.80 baht per kilogram, down 0.20 baht. In China, Yunnan latex was at 16.0 yuan per kilogram, down 0.1 yuan, while Hainan latex remained unchanged at 15.1 yuan per kilogram.
As of July 12, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory stood at 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.9% month-on-month. The total social inventory for dark rubber was 827,000 tons, down 1.1%. Within this, Qingdao spot inventory fell by 0.86%, Yunnan inventory dropped by 2.3%, Vietnamese 10# inventory remained flat, and NR inventory decreased by 3.6%. The total social inventory for light-colored rubber was 383,000 tons, down 0.36%. This included a 1% decrease for old whole milk rubber, a 3.2% drop for 3L, and a 0.8% increase for RU inventory.
Market View: Recent weather conditions in major producing areas like Thailand have not worsened further. Some regions, such as Vietnam and China's Yunnan and Hainan, may experience short-term tapping disruptions due to rainfall, but this has not created sustained pressure on supply. The seasonal pattern of global production is stabilizing. On the demand side, there have been numerous maintenance shutdowns at domestic tire factories recently, mainly in semi-steel tire plants with weaker previous orders. However, the simultaneous drawdown in inventory levels suggests demand has not deteriorated further. Short-term supply-demand imbalances are not pronounced. Looking ahead, this is a period of seasonal production growth globally. With no significant weather anomalies in producing areas currently, supply-side drivers are relatively limited. While demand performance remains weak, it has not worsened. Therefore, despite significant intraday volatility, a clear short-term trend is unlikely to emerge, with RU and NR expected to trade within a range.
PX:
Supply is stable while demand is increasing. China's industry operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.0%, still at a five-year low. The Asian PX industry operating rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 57.5%. PX maintenance volume in July is expected to hit a record high. Once this round of maintenance concludes, most planned maintenance for the year will be completed. On the demand side, high levels of PTA maintenance are temporarily suppressing PX demand. PX inventories are expected to draw down in July and August. Former U.S. President Trump stated that Iran desires a meeting, but the U.S. has no intention to talk, and the U.S. will launch a strong strike on Iran's "Mount Hao" underground facility south of Natanz, warning of action if Yemen's Houthis block the Red Sea. Crude oil time spreads have strengthened significantly, and oil prices continue to rise, with attention on the resistance at the $90 per barrel level for Brent. The current oil price rebound appears more like a bargaining tactic ahead of negotiations. Overall, renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz mean the fundamentals for chemical products are still dominated by supply-side factors. The current U.S.-Iran situation, involving both conflict and negotiation, creates significant volatility in international crude oil market sentiment, increasing uncertainty in oil price trends. Domestic chemical prices have lagged behind the rise in crude oil. The PX September contract hit a high of 8444 on Monday before retreating, showing upward pressure. Expectations for increased industry operating rates and supply pressure in August-September are bearish. The 8400-8500 range can be seen as a major resistance zone for this rebound; consider shorting on rallies.
PTA:
Both supply and demand are increasing. This period saw Yizheng Chemical Fiber reducing its operating rate and Yisheng Dalian restarting, leading to a 0.9 percentage point increase in the PTA industry operating rate to 59.2%. Future rate changes will mainly come from Yisheng Dalian's equipment replacement, so the room for further actual rate decreases is limited. However, July maintenance volume is still expected to set a new record high. On the demand side, grey fabric orders are generally weak, though knitting orders have improved slightly. The polyester industry operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 82.3%. The turning point in polyester plant operating rates appeared before that of end-user demand. PTA inventories are expected to draw down overall in July and August. In summary, renewed shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep chemical product fundamentals supply-driven. TA's rise has faced persistent selling pressure from industry hedging, leading to a significant decline in basis and pressure on processing margins. The TA September contract hit a high of 5966 before retreating. The 5800-5960 area can be viewed as a major resistance zone for this rebound; consider shorting on rallies. The TA September-January spread has fully shifted into a contango structure, with the 200 level becoming strong resistance; consider selling the spread on strength.
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Sales-Production Ratio: Polyester filament sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak on Tuesday, with the average estimated ratio below 30% by around 3:30 PM.
EG:
Supply is stable while demand is increasing. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 63.5%. Within this, the syngas-based operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 72.1%. Plants such as Hengli, Xinjiang Tianye, and Zhengdakai have maintenance plans ahead. Domestic EG supply will remain low in July-August. The situation of受阻 import transportation from the Middle East is unlikely to fundamentally improve in the short term. The trend of social inventory drawdowns will extend into the third quarter. Overall, spot tightness sentiment is translating to the futures market. The EG 09 contract faces significant pressure in the 4750-4900 range, but support around 4500 remains strong. Consider buying on dips.
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Plant Status: A 500 kt/year MEG unit in Iran was recently shut down, with restart time pending. This accounts for 0.8% of global capacity.
PF:
Supply is stable while demand is decreasing. The operating rate for direct-spun polyester staple fiber for spinning remained flat at 89.2%. Spot processing margins are expected to be further compressed, and the industry's 20% coordinated production cut may be expanded. On the demand side,终端 demand is weak, with no significant recovery in foreign trade orders. Market sentiment is cautious, downstream transactions are weak, and stocking sentiment is谨慎. Short-term demand is difficult to improve. The operating rate for yarn mills decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 52.9%, at a five-year low. In summary, the fundamentals for staple fiber itself are weak. The PF September contract price is expected to follow cost-side movements, facing pressure and retreating in the 7500-7600 range. Be cautious of short-term peaks.
Related Market News:
Sales-Production Ratio: Polyester staple fiber factory sales were mostly清淡 on Tuesday, with an average sales-production ratio of 53% as of around 3:00 PM.
PR:
Supply is increasing while demand is stable. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate increased by 3.2 percentage points to 80.0%, having基本 recovered to levels before the joint production cuts began in the second half of last year. Newly commissioned units from Fuhai and Kesen, as well as the previously long-idled Anhua unit, will陆续 start producing, which is expected to increase supply pressure. On the demand side,终端 markets are in the peak consumption season, but overseas market trading氛围 is average. Spot processing margins are also under pressure and declining, with bottle chip spot basis generally weak. Overall, bottle chip fundamentals are marginally weakening. The main PR September contract is expected to follow cost-side movements, facing pressure and retreating in the 7300-7400 range. Be cautious of short-term peaks.
Soda Ash:
Soda ash futures traded within a narrow range on Tuesday, with spot prices holding steady. Shahe heavy soda ash was quoted at 1029 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan.
Commodity markets were mixed on Tuesday with general sentiment. Last week, soda ash maintenance changes were minor, with output decreasing by 5,000 tons to 750,000 tons. Hunan Lengshuijiang began maintenance last Tuesday; Qinghai Fato began maintenance last Sunday and is scheduled to finish this week. Downstream demand decreased slightly, with middlestream and downstream采购积极性偏弱. The latest plant inventory increased by 18,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.772 million tons. The latest delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1,000 tons from the previous week to 491,000 tons. There were no changes to photovoltaic glass production lines last week. Two浮法 glass lines were冷修ed (Hunan Yanxiangxiang Industrial, 1000T/D; Zhongbo Weihai, 500T/D). This week, two photovoltaic glass lines are冷修ed (Guangxi Nanbo, 1200T/D; Zhaotong Qibin, 1200T/D), and one浮法 glass line is冷修ed (Hebei Xinli, 700T/D). Recent combined浮法 and photovoltaic glass daily melting capacity has declined, leading to a slight decrease in heavy soda ash demand. Light soda ash demand remains weak, with middlestream and downstream采购积极性偏弱. In June, soda ash imports rose to 20,500 tons while exports fell to 240,700 tons. Macro-wise, recent domestic real estate sales data showed a slight sequential increase,接近 last year's levels. International macro factors are偏利空 (strong US dollar). Domestic macro factors are偏利空 (continuing downturn in the property sector,疲软 consumption data). In summary, short-term soda ash supply is high while demand is weak, with bearish market sentiment. Weak demand and pessimistic expectations are weighing on prices. On仓单, soda ash warehouse receipts held steady at 0 on Tuesday.
Short-term soda ash futures prices are偏弱运行. Reference range for SA2609: 980-1010.
Glass:
Glass futures saw a slight rebound on Tuesday, with spot prices mostly stable. North China glass market price was 1020 yuan per ton, unchanged. Central China glass market price was 1000 yuan per ton, unchanged. Shahe sales-to-production ratio was 114%, Hubei's was 85%, showing a decline.
Short-term glass fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with demand being a clear drag. Last week, glass output declined sequentially,下游采购积极性 was average, and inventory increased slightly. The latest glass inventory increased by 5,000 tons to 3.805 million tons, up 17.2% year-on-year. Last week, two浮法 glass lines were冷修ed (Hunan Yanxiangxiang Industrial, 1000T/D; Zhongbo Weihai, 500T/D). This week, one浮法 glass line is冷修ed (Hebei Xinli, 700T/D). Recent glass daily melting capacity has decreased slightly. The latest operating daily melting capacity is 144,715 T/D, down about 8.3% year-on-year. From January to June, domestic completed housing floor area fell 23.7% year-on-year (the decline略扩大). Recent real estate sales data showed a slight sequential increase,接近 last year's levels. The latest (mid-July) glass深加工 order book increased by 0.1 days to 8.3 days, down 10.6% year-on-year. Short-term glass fundamentals are weak on both supply and demand, with prices continuing弱势震荡 against a backdrop of weak demand. Current valuations have entered a historically low range; monitor changes on the supply side.
Short-term glass futures prices are expected to trade within a low range. Futures valuations are relatively low; short positions can be exited. Reference range for FG2609: 900-920.
Polyolefins: Geopolitical Volatility Drives Significant Cost Premium Increase
As of the July 21 day session close, the main LLDPE contract L2609 settled at 7794 yuan per ton, down 146 yuan for the day. The main PP contract PP2609 settled at 8273 yuan per ton, down 189 yuan. The LLDPE East China basis was 681 yuan per ton, strengthening by 71 yuan. The PP raffia East China basis was 768 yuan per ton, strengthening by 128 yuan.
Continued escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions, disrupting crude oil supply and pushing up international oil prices, provides strong cost support for the domestic polyolefins market. Coupled with currently low overall polyolefin inventory and strong石化挺价意愿, short-term market prices are偏强震荡 with potential for further gains. On the demand side, the market is in the traditional off-season. Downstream sectors like plastic weaving and film maintain low operating rates, with processing margins under pressure. Procurement is cautious and based on immediate needs, with no集中补库 behavior, limiting transaction volumes. Meanwhile, previously idled plants are陆续 restarting, and market supply is expected to gradually loosen, with potential for imported cargo回流. Overall, polyolefins are偏强运行 in the short term, driven by geopolitical cost factors.
View:偏强震荡 in the short term due to geopolitical volatility. Reference range for L2609: 7400-8200 yuan/ton. Reference range for PP2609: 7800-8600 yuan/ton.
Caustic Soda:
The main caustic soda contract SH2609 fell 23 yuan to 1889 yuan per ton. In Shandong, mainstream成交 prices for 32% ion-membrane alkali were 625-730 yuan per ton, stable from the previous day. A major local downstream alumina plant's liquid caustic soda采购 price was 590 yuan/ton. Mainstream成交 prices for 50% ion-membrane alkali in Shandong were 1000-1030 yuan/ton, stable. Shandong demand was steady to淡, with downstream and trader采购积极性一般. Chlor-alkali plants were not operating at full capacity, with平稳出货. 32% liquid caustic prices were stable; 50% liquid caustic demand was平淡 with平平 downstream采购, keeping prices stable.
Recently, the caustic soda market has been trading within a low range, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, industry capacity continues to be added, plant operations are stable, and overall supply is ample, capping现货 price upside. Demand-side支撑 is疲软. Core downstream alumina offers limited增量, while终端 demand from printing/dyeing and papermaking is平稳 without提振.虽然 exports have increased, they cannot offset domestic demand weakness. Current氯碱企业综合利润 are at low levels, and there are industry expectations for production cuts, which somewhat limit downside price potential. Short-term行情 is expected to延续低位震荡.
Strategy: Wide幅震荡. Reference price range for main SH2609: 1800-2100 yuan/ton.
PVC:
As of the July 21, 2026 day session close, the main PVC contract V2609 fell 126 yuan to 4587 yuan per ton.
Short-term geopolitical risk premium supports domestic chemical prices, with rising ethylene prices providing cost-side支撑. On the supply side, calcium carbide-based operating rates are declining while ethylene-based rates are recovering, keeping overall supply at low levels. Coupled with a slight rebound in calcium carbide costs, this has eased previous oversupply pressure, and market inventory is slowly drawing down. Demand remains偏弱, with insufficient real estate recovery and平淡跟进 in终端制品 orders. Immediate needs dominate market transactions. Short-term geopolitical volatility raises concerns about ethylene supply in the Asia-Pacific region, manifesting as cost-push. However, considering current ethylene-based PVC operating rates are already at historically low levels, the room for further cost increases to drive rates lower may be limited. Short-term prices are偏强震荡, but the upside may be relatively有限.
Strategy: Wide幅震荡. Reference price range for main V2609: 4400-4700 yuan/ton.
Crude Oil:
International oil prices closed higher overnight. Brent September rose 3.19%, and WTI September rose 2.57%. As of yesterday, the U.S. had conducted strikes on Iran for 11 consecutive nights, with Trump强硬 stating the next step could be attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. More Middle Eastern countries are being drawn into the U.S.-Iran conflict. Besides the earlier announcement by Yemen's Houthis of a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, on the 20th, Iraqi militia groups declared they would directly参与反美战斗 if the U.S. further escalates aggression against Iran. The Middle East situation is showing signs of短期升级. Calculations suggest Brent above $95/barrel and WTI above $90/barrel could reignite U.S. inflation concerns. Monitor the possibility of renewed dollar strength and重启 of U.S.-Iran diplomatic channels if Brent breaks above $95. Hold long positions cautiously.
Trading Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously.
Fuel Oil & Low Sulfur Fuel Oil:
Yesterday, Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil现货升水 rose by $1.95/ton and $1.25/ton, respectively. Against the backdrop of renewed Middle East escalation, the high-low硫价差 narrowed. The current U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its 11th day, with Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi militia groups陆续 expressing willingness to support Iran. Short-term, the fuel oil market is偏强震荡 following crude oil. Monitor the反噬 effect of inflation pressure on oil prices if Brent breaks above $95/barrel.
Trading Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously.
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