Hong Kong Market Analysis | Fed Rate Cut Fails to Stir A-Shares, Central Economic Work Conference Sets Direction

Stock News2025-12-11

【Market Overview】Despite the Fed's rate cut, A-shares unexpectedly plunged, while Hong Kong stocks showed relative resilience with a modest 0.04% dip after a brief rally. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 to lower the benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75%. Three dissenting members opposed the 25bps cut, with dot plots signaling one more reduction in 2026. Chair Powell struck a mixed tone—initially hawkish by calling current policy "well-positioned" near neutral, then pivoting dovish to hint at further cuts for labor market support. The surprise catalyst: the Fed unveiled a $40B/month Treasury bill purchase program under its Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), echoing QE-liquidity effects that propelled U.S. indices higher.

Domestically, while the Fed’s move theoretically opens room for easing, China maintains policy independence, prioritizing domestic economic conditions. Analysts project 1-2 RRR cuts (25-50bps total) in 2026, with limited rate cuts likely reserved for early-year stimulus and bond issuance coordination. Property stocks lacked momentum despite rate-cut logic, though sector leaders like China Cinda (01359) and Beike (02423) rose 4% and 3% respectively on buybacks.

Geopolitical tensions flared as the U.S. seized a Venezuelan tanker, exposing resource-driven motives. ZTE (00763) tumbled 13% amid renewed FCPA investigation risks.

【Policy Highlights】The Central Economic Work Conference outlined 2025 priorities: 1) **Domestic Demand**: Auto-finance leader Yixin Group (02858) gained 2%. China East Education (00667) surged 7% after partnering with JITRI for smart manufacturing/robotics vocational programs. 2) **Innovation**: AI-ad firm Mobvista (01860) jumped 15%, while fiber-optic manufacturer Yangtze Optical (06869) rose 4%. 3) **Green Transition**: Wind energy player Goldwind (02208, +5%) and nuclear firm CGN New Energy (01811, +4%) led gains. Lens Technology (06613) advanced 2% post-acquisition of server cabinet/li cooling tech assets.

Bank stocks saw late-session ETF-driven rallies ahead of index rebalancing.

【Sector Spotlight】Battery makers like CATL (03750), Ganfeng Lithium (01772), and Tianqi Lithium (09696) are in focus after DESAY Energy announced 15% price hikes and industry output rose 2.3% MoM.

【Stock Pick】Hansoh Pharma (03692): With rapid sales growth (H1 revenue +14.3%, net profit +15%), its third-gen EGFR inhibitor Ameile® saw医保 inclusion for two new indications. The ADC pipeline gained global validation via Roche’s licensing deal, reflecting China’s biotech rise.

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