On August 21st, market news indicates that after gold prices broke through the $4,450 per ounce mark, reaching near the second resistance level we had identified, the metal is poised to potentially surpass $5,000 by 2027 or even earlier.
Improving macroeconomic conditions are bolstering demand for gold ETFs, as expectations for US Federal Reserve rate hikes gradually fade and the US dollar weakens. Strong central bank purchases and firmer physical demand are also providing additional support to gold prices.
Despite elevated long-term yields, gold's resilience suggests growing investor concerns about fiscal risks, including high government debt levels and potential currency depreciation risks. The Fed is expected to maintain rates unchanged through 2026, but upcoming US inflation data and Fed officials' remarks could heighten market volatility.
According to reports from Iranian sources, negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding a joint mechanism for ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz have reached their final stages. The two nations are currently discussing a memorandum of understanding for the strait and developing new navigation protocols. Reports suggest this development has frustrated former President Trump, who threatened on the 17th to bomb the Gulf ally if Oman "obstructs" America's efforts to reopen the strait. Continued attacks on vessels and oil flows remaining well below pre-war levels indicate that neither the US nor Iran have achieved the "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz they claim.
From a technical standpoint for spot gold (London Gold), yesterday's daily candlestick closed as a large bullish candle, with the Bollinger Bands opening upward. The KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross, while the MACD fast line sits above the slow line with the red histogram expanding. The broader trend remains tilted to the upside, with a staged upward trajectory expected over the medium term.
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening, the KDJ indicator shows a golden cross gaining momentum, and the MACD fast line remains above the slow line with red histogram expanding. The hourly chart also shows Bollinger Bands opening, KDJ golden cross in effect, though the MACD fast line sits below the slow line with the green histogram gradually contracting. Prices have pulled back as anticipated in the short term; current support levels are seen at 4501, 4455, and 4435, while resistance lies at 4543, 4592, and 4616.
For Shanghai gold, focus on resistance at 983 and 991, with support at 974 and 965.
Spot silver (London Silver) continues its broad-range consolidation with a medium-term downward phase. Short-term prices have corrected as expected; watch the pullback with resistance at 69.2 and 72.5, and support at 63 and 61.4. Shanghai silver is trading within a range of 16,200-17,250, with a broader band between 15,040 and 17,890.
This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.
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