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Mock Trading Client. From October 20-22 by the Huangpu River in Shanghai, the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference will once again arrive. Nobel Prize and Turing Award winners will take the stage to discuss the future and trends of technology, and the internet-famous professors who "rescue" people from anxiety and the era of involution — Macfarlane and Xiang Biao — will hold a live dialogue! Limited seats, first come first served. Let us go together to the appointment with sustainability! [Click to register]. Recently, the market has shown a trend of continued adjustment. Although there was a rally today, there was another certain pullback at midday, which indicates that this round of continued market adjustment has dealt a relatively large blow to investor confidence. Therefore, even with the positive push from some large funds buying various ETFs, the market's downward trend has not been fundamentally reversed. This also shows that this round of adjustment since October requires greater policy positives to boost investor confidence in order to completely reverse the downward trend and return to a range of fluctuating upward movement. Looking at the operation of the Shanghai Composite Index throughout this year, it is now below the 3,800-point integer mark and approaching around 3,700 points, which belongs to the lower edge of the fluctuation range. In May and June, the market saw a sharp rise in technology stocks and local overheating. At that time, the sector was too crowded. That was the time to overcome greed and avoid risk by reducing positions. Therefore, at that time I was also one of the few who promptly reminded everyone of the risk. As an economist, I advised everyone to respond to the possible decline in technology stocks by deleveraging, cutting positions by half, and holding one hand in technology and one hand in dividend stocks. According to the three-step strategy, this round of adjustment lasting more than three months could basically avoid most of the decline. Now it seems that this strategy is still effective, especially when technology stocks continued to adjust, dividend stocks represented by banks rebounded significantly, and the seesaw effect was very obvious. Now market sentiment is sluggish, many investors lack confidence in the future market, and some even shout "the bear is here." I believe that the more people think the market has already entered a bear market, the more it is actually a signal that this round of market adjustment is nearing its end. Yesterday afternoon, I had a live dialogue with well-known former brokerage chief Li Daxiao, and we discussed the recent market conditions in depth. Many people mistakenly thought that Li Daxiao believed the bull market was over and the bear market had arrived. In fact, he clarified during the live broadcast that he only felt that one stage of the bull market had come to an end, and the situation of sharp gains in technology stocks would no longer appear, but that did not mean it had entered a bear market. In May and June, many technology stocks had valuations of more than 100 times, and there was indeed a risk that the sector was too crowded. At that time, I shared an indicator with everyone, which was that the trading share of the top 5% of stocks reached 50% of the entire market, while in history this indicator had exceeded 45% five times, of which three times led to style switching and two times directly led to bull-bear transitions. This time was no exception, and it indeed came true. In addition, at that time market sentiment was excited, and margin financing and securities lending balances once broke through the 3 trillion mark, which directly led to the risk of forced liquidation for some leveraged investors when the market fell. Recently, there have been rumors that some leveraged clients have suffered forced liquidation. I have always stressed to everyone that no matter when, never use leverage. Buffett said that once you use leverage, time is no longer your friend, but your enemy. After this major decline, everyone should have a deep understanding that indeed, when the market falls, using leverage makes you very passive. Recently I saw a chart circulating online. A 2x long product on Hynix issued by a certain fund in Hong Kong saw its net value fall from 195 to 18, a decline of 90%. It can be said that 2x long, or even 3x long, products are highly speculative products with extremely high risk. I advise everyone never to touch these leveraged tools, otherwise it is very easy to lose almost everything when the trend turns downward. We must remember the eight-character advice: any large number multiplied by 0 equals 0. If everyone strictly allocates according to the strategy of no leverage, maintaining half positions, and holding one hand in technology and one hand in dividend stocks, then they would not be too passive now. When overall market sentiment is currently sluggish, I also advise everyone to overcome fear. Whether from the policy side, the current environment of low interest rates and ample liquidity, or the background of the great transfer of household savings, this long-term market trend has not ended, and what follows will still be a structural market. It is just that this round of adjustment has lasted relatively long and has greatly worn down investor confidence. For the market to stabilize and rebound now, more policy positives and more external impetus may be needed to completely reverse the downturn. This also requires everyone to maintain confidence and patience. From the perspective of overseas markets, the increased expectation of Federal Reserve rate hikes is an uncertain factor. The United States has just released September CPI data, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, exceeding the previous market expectation of 3.6% and also exceeding the previous value of 3.4%. This increases the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise rates one more time before the end of the year, which has also caused large fluctuations in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets. Yesterday, both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets suffered sharp declines, while today they staged a major rebound. Increased volatility in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets has had a very obvious impact on the already weak A-share market, intensifying panic sentiment in the A-share market. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to run at high levels. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield even reached a high of 5.7%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has long been regarded in textbooks as the market's risk-free rate of return, and it once broke through 5.25%. This is no longer a risk-free return, but includes risk compensation for the possibility of U.S. debt default. The high-level operation of U.S. Treasury yields has also had a great impact on global capital flows, causing some funds to flow out of emerging markets and into dollar assets. Capital inflows into dollar assets increased, while emerging markets saw capital outflows. Recently, U.S. chip stocks also experienced a wave of correction, but the impact on the three major U.S. stock indices was not large. The three major U.S. stock indices are still fluctuating at high levels without showing a downward trend. This shows that although the AI technology bubble in U.S. stocks exists in this round, because AI hardware still has relatively strong earnings support and capital expenditure continues to climb without a downward inflection point, the AI technology stocks in U.S. stocks are still in an upward trend, and this has not changed. In other words, what we need to closely monitor now is whether U.S. AI technology maintains relatively strong capital expenditure growth. If next year AI applications cannot gradually be implemented and cannot recover these capital expenditures and generate economic benefits, will massive capital expenditure growth decline, or even decline in absolute terms? That would have a fatal impact on the trend of AI technology stocks, because once capital expenditure growth declines, or even absolute value declines, it may create a Davis double kill for stock prices. Before that, U.S. AI technology as a whole is still in an upward trend. Therefore, as long as U.S. AI technology does not collapse, we can actually be relatively optimistic in investment. This round of the technology market in A-shares has probably not ended, and everyone must have confidence in this. Recently, international gold prices have fluctuated greatly, but overall they are still fluctuating around $4,200 per ounce. Earlier, international gold prices once fell to 3,900. At that time, I put forward a view that below $4,000 belongs to a gold pit, a relatively good time to allocate gold-related assets. Now, as it once again approaches the $4,000 mark, gold may usher in certain allocation opportunities. Factors affecting gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, short-term strengthening of the dollar, central bank gold purchases, and increased market safe-haven demand, among others. These factors will all have a certain impact on gold. Of course, dollar trends and interest rate changes affect short-term gold price trends, while central bank gold purchases and international geopolitical turmoil are medium- and long-term factors for gold prices. Therefore, gold prices may maintain a trend of fluctuation and adjustment in the short term, but in the medium and long term the trend is still upward, and everyone must have confidence in this. International oil prices have recently been fluctuating at high levels and have once again attacked upward, now approaching $110 per barrel. This is mainly due to changes in the international geopolitical situation, plus changes in supply and demand, affecting resource prices. High oil prices will have a negative impact on global inflation and global economic growth, thereby putting certain pressure on capital markets. Oil is called the blood of industry. On the one hand, oil is fuel, and rising oil prices will increase energy prices for industrial products. On the other hand, oil is also a raw material for chemical products, so rising oil prices will also lead to higher prices for chemical products. Therefore, this round of oil price increases is generally expected to have a direct impact on global inflation, and then affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. In the short term, there is no sign that the Middle East conflict has ended, and the possibility that international oil prices will remain fluctuating at high levels is still relatively large. This is also worth paying attention to. Now third-quarter reports are being disclosed, and performance divergence is also relatively obvious. The strategy of one hand in technology and one hand in dividend stocks is still worth everyone sticking to. Maintaining deleveraging, maintaining half positions, and maintaining balanced allocation — this three-step strategy is still very effective, and at present it should not be adjusted. Because although technology stocks have fallen relatively sharply, it does not mean they will immediately rebound substantially. Dividend stocks have already risen for a wave, but the valuation of bank stocks is still the lowest in the entire market. Especially large banks have relatively stable profits and dividends, and the investment value of dividend assets still exists. What is strange is that many people buy technology stocks with a price-earnings ratio of 100 times without hesitation, but when it comes to buying bank stocks with a price-earnings ratio of less than 10 times, they cannot bring themselves to do it and always feel they are expensive. This is actually a psychological misunderstanding. Many people think that the earnings growth potential of technology stocks must exceed that of bank stocks, but this is sometimes a misunderstanding. One hand in technology and one hand in dividend stocks is actually equivalent to a hedging strategy. Technology growth stocks are responsible for offense and are the spear, while banks and other dividend stocks are the shield, responsible for defense. In this way, having both offense and defense is what truly makes a qualified soldier; otherwise, there will be flaws. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are rising well! Sina statement: This news is reprinted from Sina cooperative media. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with its views or confirms its description. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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