Hong Kong's three major stock indices collectively posted slight adjustments today, with internet sector stocks broadly weakening and gold mining stocks leading the declines, while oil stocks bucked the trend and remained active. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.29% to 24,761.13 points, with total daily turnover of HK$159.552 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 0.41% to 4,361.13 points.
Among Hong Kong ETF products ranked by size, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) closed down 0.24% at HK$25.38; CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (03033) closed down 0.19% at HK$4.272; and CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leveraged 2x Product (07709) closed down 3.01% at HK$42.52.
Sector Performance
Iran's tough stance overturned the de-escalation narrative, geopolitical risk premiums returned, and oil and gas ETFs rebounded across the board. By the close, Energy and Chemical ETF Jianxin (159981.SZ) rose 4.23% to 1.749 yuan; S&P Oil & Gas ETF Fullgoal (513350.SH) gained 1.55% to 1.314 yuan; and S&P Oil & Gas ETF Harvest (159518.SZ) advanced 1.47% to 1.246 yuan.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary explicitly stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until Iran's conditions are met, and during the UN General Assembly both the US and Iran maintained hardline positions. The diplomatic breakthrough and geopolitical de-escalation that the market had hoped for did not materialize, and short sellers who had prematurely priced in geopolitical cooling concentrated on buying back the premium. As a result, WTI November crude oil futures rose 1.81% to $92.16 per barrel, ending the longest losing streak since February 26; Brent November crude oil futures surged 3.86% to $103.08 per barrel, marking the largest daily gain since September 10, with both ending a five-day losing streak.
China Securities Co., Ltd. stated that ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt crude oil supply expectations, further intensifying global crude oil supply concerns. Oil, gas, and coal, as irreplaceable strategic physical assets, not only possess inflation-resistant resilience in their prices but also demonstrate characteristics clearly superior to general financial assets in a stagflation environment. The investment logic for energy companies is accelerating its transformation into dividend assets characterized by "strong free cash flow, high dividends, and continuous buybacks."
Everbright Securities also noted that obstructed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has forced some crude oil to be rerouted or transported via ship-to-ship transfers. The tightening of effective shipping capacity, combined with the seasonal recovery in demand in the fourth quarter, supports freight rates remaining at elevated levels.
PMI Exceeds Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Surge, Hawkish Remarks Reinforce Tightening Expectations, Gold Mining Stock ETFs Under Pressure
By the close, Gold Mining Stock ETF Guotai (517400.SH) fell 4.38% to 1.506 yuan; Gold Mining Stock ETF Yongying (517520.SH) dropped 4.32% to 1.905 yuan; and Gold Mining Stock ETF Huaan (159321.SZ) declined 4.12% to 1.465 yuan.
S&P Global data showed that the US September composite PMI preliminary reading rose to 58.4, a new high since July 2021, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 57, and corporate input cost increases reaching the highest level since October 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that the risks of achieving the 2% inflation target have increased while labor market risks have diminished, and that "further rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to target."
CME data showed that market pricing for a Fed rate hike in October briefly rose above 70%. As a result, the 5-year US Treasury yield rose 17 basis points, briefly breaking above 5% intraday for the first time since 2007, the 10-year yield rose above 5.1%, the dollar index approached a two-month high, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.23% to $4,322.7 per ounce.
Shenyin & Wanguo Futures believes that in the short term, before Fed rate hike expectations cool down, US Treasury yields and the dollar index will remain at high levels, limiting the rebound space for precious metals. Zhengxin Futures also stated that strong US economic data has raised market expectations for an October rate hike, increasing upward pressure on precious metals in the short term.
Institutional Views
Liu Gang, Chief Overseas and Hong Kong Stock Strategy Analyst at CICC Research Department, believes that external liquidity will only amplify volatility when fundamentals are weak, and China's mainland economic trajectory deserves more attention. If the recovery of China's mainland economy exceeds expectations, Hong Kong stocks can withstand external pressure. He expects the Hang Seng Index to remain range-bound between 24,000 and 26,000 points, and noted that for Hong Kong stocks to sustain a rebound, two major catalysts need to materialize: first, fiscal policy must significantly stimulate the household sector to amplify the elasticity of Hong Kong stocks; second, major internet and AI companies must deliver on earnings and overcome the current "transitional" phase.
ETF Developments
N Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals ETF GF (512470.SH) debuted, closing down 3.21% at 0.965 yuan with turnover of 43.7991 million yuan; the fund tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering the industrial non-ferrous metals sector, including core industrial varieties such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, and tungsten.
N STAR Chip Design ETF Harvest (589480.SH) debuted, closing down 2.97% at 1.013 yuan with turnover of 122 million yuan; the fund tracks the SSE STAR Chip Design Theme Index, covering the chip design sector.
N Artificial Intelligence ETF Southern (515470.SH) debuted, closing down 2.01% at 0.977 yuan with turnover of 37.5772 million yuan; the fund tracks the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, covering stocks related to the AI theme.
ChiNext Computing Power ETF Southern (158063.SZ) debuted, closing down 2.39% at 0.98 yuan with turnover of 55.2964 million yuan; the fund tracks the ChiNext Computing Power Infrastructure Index, covering the computing power infrastructure industry, involving computing, networking, storage, and operations and maintenance.
Hang Seng Tech ETF Fullgoal (158042.SZ) debuted, closing down 1.6% at 0.986 yuan with turnover of 60.3608 million yuan; the fund tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, covering constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index, and is a QDII fund.
ChiNext Computing Power ETF Harvest (158056.SZ) debuted, closing down 2.68% at 0.98 yuan with turnover of 87.8397 million yuan; the fund tracks the ChiNext Computing Power Infrastructure Index, covering the computing power infrastructure sector, involving computing, networking, storage, and operations and maintenance.
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