The Bank of Korea has firmly rejected market concerns that the semiconductor boom has peaked, asserting that the global expansion cycle for the sector will persist for a considerable period even as South Korean stocks continue to decline.
In a written response submitted to lawmaker Park Sung-hoon of the People Power Party on July 13, the central bank stated that the current semiconductor upcycle remains intact, driven by surging demand from AI infrastructure investment while supply expansion lags significantly. This assessment goes beyond the bank's previous forecast of the cycle extending to 2026, suggesting a potentially wider timeframe for the upturn.
Major investment banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, provide supporting evidence for this view. The central bank cited their perspectives, noting that despite uncertainties around the pace, scope, and profitability of AI adoption, these institutions generally expect the global semiconductor market to maintain robust momentum at least through next year.
Current Cycle Exceeds Historical Norms in Duration and Strength
The Bank of Korea pointed out that the current expansion phase, which began in March 2023, has now lasted 40 months, surpassing the historical average of 29 months observed across five expansion cycles between 2000 and 2020.
The bank also emphasized that the intensity of this cycle is significantly stronger than historical patterns. "The current semiconductor boom, driven by global investments in AI infrastructure like data centers, is showing much stronger momentum compared to previous expansion periods," the central bank wrote in its response.
Furthermore, the underlying driver of this expansion differs fundamentally from past cycles. The bank views this upturn as being led by competitive corporate investments based on the expectation that AI will fundamentally reshape the industrial ecosystem, rather than being pulled by conventional consumer electronics or traditional IT demand alone.
Supply Bottlenecks Provide Structural Support
On the supply side, the Bank of Korea identified constrained supply expansion as a key factor supporting the prolonged upturn.
The bank explained that high-performance products involve significant technical challenges and require considerable time for mass production. Additionally, with current demand being led by customized products like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the pace of supply expansion faces more pronounced constraints than in previous cycles.
This structural characteristic implies that even if demand fluctuates, the supply side is unlikely to generate excess pressure in the short term, thereby providing a buffer for prices and overall industry conditions.
Central Bank's Stance Shows Noticeable Warming
This written response represents a further upgrade in the Bank of Korea's outlook for semiconductors. In November of last year, then-Director General of Research and current Deputy Governor Lee Ji-ho stated at an economic outlook briefing that the semiconductor cycle "could extend to 2026," but expressed reservations about whether it would last into 2027.
In January this year, former Governor Rhee Chang-yong also expressed cautious optimism at a press conference, stating that "semiconductors are a necessity regardless of who ultimately prevails in the AI industry," and anticipated favorable prospects for the related industry "for at least the next year."
The latest written response extends these assessments further, using more definitive language, indicating that the central bank's confidence in the semiconductor sector's prospects has strengthened compared to its previous stance.
Comments