Corn: Neutral Deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have raised their purchase prices, while most farmers in the region are holding back grain, leading to continued market tussle between supply and demand sides over the sustainability of the strengthening futures market. Following previous weather disruptions, the volume of trucks arriving in Shandong has recovered from 51 to 196. Companies including Yishui Dadi, Mineng, Jinhui, Qingyuan Food, and Luzhou Group continued to raise their purchase prices by 10-20 yuan/ton. Three corn procurement and sales auctions were held on the 20th: Sinograin held a corn bidding procurement auction, planning to purchase 46,000 tons, with 22,000 tons actually traded, resulting in a 48% transaction rate. Sinograin also held a corn purchase and sale two-way auction, with a planned volume of 13,000 tons; 2,500 tons were traded, achieving a 20% transaction rate. Sinograin's Heilongjiang branch held a corn bidding sales auction, planning to sell 11,000 tons, all of which were successfully sold at prices ranging from 2090 to 2160 yuan/ton. Combined with generally moderate spot market transactions, this indirectly indicates that while short-term market wait-and-see sentiment has weakened somewhat and restocking demand persists, the overall market still lacks a clear, definitive judgment on future price trends. View Summary: For the main corn 03 contract, observe support near 2250, with resistance above at 2350.
Soybean Meal: Neutral CBOT soybeans fluctuated overnight; support for U.S. soybeans comes from the crushing expansion implied by U.S. biofuel policies, but the prospect of a bumper South American harvest caps the rebound's upside. Reuters reported that China has completed its target of purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, while overseas markets remain watchful regarding the projection of China purchasing 25 million tons of soybeans by 2026, as suggested by Basent. Weather forecasts indicate a prominent "more rain in the north, less in the south" pattern for the Southern Cone over the next week, with little to no rainfall expected in southern Brazil and the core production regions of Argentina. If the hot and dry conditions persist, drought risks in Argentina may gradually intensify. Weakening cost support from U.S. futures and the decline in rapeseed meal prices are both weighing on soybean meal prices. However, concerns over potential temporary tightness in future soybean supplies and uncertainty regarding the pace of state reserve releases continue to provide some support. On the other hand, the crushing margin for Brazilian far-month shipments is relatively attractive, suggesting that if pressure from South American arrivals materializes, profits might still be squeezed out through a decline in meal prices. View Summary: Monitor potential disruptions to U.S. markets caused by changes in precipitation expectations for Argentina. The domestic market is in a state of "overall ample supply but with lingering expectations of structural tightness." Key variables going forward remain the actual implementation of customs clearance delay policies and the pace of imported soybean releases from state reserves. For outright positions, watch the performance of the 05 contract near the 2700 yuan/ton support level.
Eggs: Neutral Spot prices in the main producing areas remained stable. The average spot price in Guantao, Hebei was approximately 3.40 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. From the supply perspective, capacity reduction is the core logic supporting prices. After a relatively sluggish adjustment period in 2025, breeders accelerated the culling of older, less efficient hens. The national average molting age for laying hens has significantly decreased from a high of 548 days at the beginning of 2025 to the current 485 days, gradually returning to a reasonable range and providing short-term support. In the medium to long term, the price center for eggs is expected to gradually shift upwards, with the core driver being the relatively clear trend of capacity reduction. A key risk lies in the potential for restored breeding profits to affect the pace of capacity reduction; if rising egg prices lead to a slowdown in culling or a premature recovery in restocking意愿, it would weaken the positive impact of supply-side improvements. Trading Strategy: The potential return of hedging pressure may significantly affect the premium on far-month contracts, and the previously deep Contango structure has already been corrected.
Live Hogs: Neutral The average price for live hogs in main producing regions was approximately 13.20 yuan/kg yesterday. Spot prices have weakened after reaching a temporary peak. The number of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million head, down 2.9% year-on-year. Judging by the reaction in the futures market, participants perceive the extent of breeding capacity reduction as falling short of expectations. Even though the direction of capacity is still downward, the logic supporting a long position based on the futures premium is not strong, leading to a downward correction in futures prices. Against the backdrop of relatively strong spot price fluctuations this year, capacity reduction was already expected to be a winding process, accompanied by adjustments in market expectations. Far-month price movements themselves rely more on expectations; given that the market has already priced in a Contango structure, they may also be subject to greater influence from shifting expectations. Trading Strategy: Focus on the risk of a spot price correction in the short term; in the medium term, opportunities for long positions can still be considered after the far-month premium converges.
Risk Disclosure: This information was prepared by the analyst team of the futures company's Research and Development Department. The information herein is derived from publicly available sources. CSC Futures strives for accuracy and reliability but makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is undertaken at one's own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice, nor does it consider the specific trading objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this information suit their particular circumstances.
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