China is poised to become a global hub for industrial innovation, leveraging its vast domestic market and technological sovereignty, according to Zhang Jun, Chief Economist at China Galaxy Securities. This perspective comes as foundational technologies reshape industries from the ground up.
Huawei's proposed "Tao's Law" is fundamentally restructuring the logic of chip development, using "time miniaturization" to break through physical limits and solidify the computational foundation for a profound industrial paradigm shift. By 2026, AI Agents are permeating business at an unprecedented rate, and Token economics is moving from concept to practice—every model inference consuming a Token is redefining the unit of value measurement. Concurrently, humanoid robots are accelerating their move out of labs, and innovative pharmaceutical companies are seeking a balance between target discovery and commercialization. As explorations in "robotics + brain-computer interfaces" push the boundaries of human-machine interaction, and AI's ability to predict protein structures expands the horizons of life sciences, a deep restructuring of industrial paradigms is emerging.
These technological breakthroughs are collectively giving rise to a new "Intelligent Economy" paradigm. This economy, driven by data as a key production factor and intelligent algorithms with computing power at its core, is not a single technology application but a deep integration and systemic explosion of frontier industry clusters like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals. In this paradigm, AI forms the neural center for perception and decision-making, robotics extends as the execution terminal in the physical world, and innovative drugs leverage AI to drastically enhance R&D efficiency and precision. This new triad of technologies empowers each other, collectively becoming the core engine for driving growth.
However, a contradiction is becoming increasingly apparent: technology is hot, but practical implementation lags. Humanoid robot costs remain high, ranging from 500,000 to 1 million yuan, and innovative drugs face difficulties in hospital adoption and medical insurance reimbursement challenges.
Amid this paradigm shift, what are China's true strategic advantages? As technological sovereignty increasingly becomes a strategic high ground in major power competition, how can China leverage its ultra-large-scale market and complete industrial system as a foundation to build higher-dimensional core competitiveness? How should it strategize and break through existing barriers?
Zhang Jun, Chief Economist and Head of Research at China Galaxy Securities, addressed these questions in an exclusive interview.
**Shifting Growth Engines: From "Scale-Driven" to "Innovation-Driven"**
The core driving force of China's economic growth is undergoing a significant transformation. Traditional drivers that supported high growth—such as demographic dividends, land dividends, and external demand—are diminishing at the margins. Relying solely on expanding investment and increasing production capacity offers limited growth space.
Against this backdrop, the core growth driver is transitioning from "traditional factor-driven" growth to an "enhancement of total factor productivity."
Technologies like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals rely more heavily on intangible assets such as knowledge, data, and algorithms and exhibit significant cross-industry spillover effects. AI enhances cognitive and decision-making efficiency, robotics improve manufacturing and system automation levels, and innovative drugs correspond to breakthroughs in life sciences and upgraded health demands. Together, they enhance the efficiency, quality, and added value of the entire economic system's operation. This marks a shift in China's economic growth engine from "scale-driven" to "innovation-driven," moving from catch-up expansion to high-quality development.
**Overcoming the "Middle-Income Technology Trap"**
To escape this trap, the key is to reshape the mechanism of productivity formation. Traditional productivity gains primarily relied on capital deepening, which encounters diminishing marginal returns. AI serves as the fundamental breakthrough, acting as the "brain," while robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals represent AI's application and value realization in the physical world and life sciences, respectively. Robotics can translate AI decisions into precise physical actions, and AI-powered drug molecule screening can shorten R&D cycles from years to months.
The combined force of these three areas means productivity gains no longer depend on "transfusions" of external technology but on "self-generation" through internal systemic innovation. They cover the three core dimensions of future competition: digital, physical, and biological. Only through their interconnected operation can a complete, sustainable innovation flywheel be built.
**New Capabilities for Industrial Competition in Major Power Rivalry**
Industrial competition among major powers is increasingly becoming a contest over underlying standards, ecosystems, and governance systems. Whoever can participate in defining the rules gains a greater chance of securing long-term initiative.
This demands a triple upgrade for Chinese industry: First, the R&D focus must extend from scaling up mature technologies to innovating at the source. Only by mastering key technologies and links can China avoid long-term dependence on others' technological systems.
Second, corporate capabilities must evolve from being single-product providers to becoming platform-based, ecosystem-oriented organizations capable of building developer ecosystems and universal interfaces.
Third, international participation must become more proactive, engaging in multilateral governance platforms like international standardization organizations, industry alliances, and open-source communities. Early participation allows practical experience to translate into rule-making influence.
**Paradigm Restructuring: The Rise of the Intelligent Economy and Token-Based Value**
The rise of AI large models and Token economics is indeed fostering a new "Intelligent Economy" paradigm, fundamentally颠覆ing traditional industrial economic value theories centered on labor and capital.
A landmark change is the rise of "Token economics": the rapid expansion of AI large models and AI Agents means each model inference can be seen as a Token consumption. Future corporate output may not be tangible hardware or software but "intelligent services" provided per Token. An excellent algorithm, even with limited direct labor input, can generate immense economic value, directly challenging traditional factor distribution theories.
The new triad of AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals are the core carriers of this paradigm shift. In this profound transformation, China's strategic advantages are particularly prominent. The ultimate competition in AI is computing power, and the foundation of computing power competition is electricity. China not only possesses significant industrial electricity cost advantages but, more crucially, has made forward-looking布局s in its green energy structure, providing a sustainable foundation for the energy-intensive AI industry.
Simultaneously, China boasts the world's largest and most diverse application scenarios, enabling a unique "application-driven technology" development path. This presents an opportunity for a historic leap from a "manufacturing powerhouse" to an "intelligent economy powerhouse."
**Addressing Tech Sovereignty Challenges and Implementation Pain Points**
The global competition logic has shifted from "efficiency first" to "technological sovereignty first." This requires differentiated, resilient布局s, with the core principle being autonomy and control over key links, not pursuing complete self-sufficiency.
In AI, facing constraints on high-end computing chips, China must "exchange computing power" through algorithmic innovation while全力构建ing an independent deep learning framework ecosystem, using large-scale clusters to compensate for single-card performance shortcomings. In robotics, efforts must focus on overcoming constraints in core components like high-precision sensors and reducers. In innovative pharmaceuticals, the leap must be from follow-on innovation to source innovation.
At the same time, a current现实矛盾 exists: technology is hot, but implementation is weak. This is essentially "structural friction" during a paradigm shift. AI large models excel at optimizing overall system efficiency, but corporate evaluations are short-term and departmentalized, making return on investment difficult to quantify. Humanoid robot costs of 500,000 to 1 million yuan far exceed the支付能力 of most application scenarios. Innovative drugs face hurdles in hospital adoption and medical insurance reimbursement.
The solution lies in a "two-pronged approach." On the supply side, tech companies must be more pragmatic,优先开发ing lightweight solutions that can quickly integrate into existing processes. On the demand side, institutional innovation is urgently needed to bridge the gap. Government procurement and标杆示范 projects can create initial application scenarios for new technologies, while accelerating the construction of a diversified payment system for innovative drugs.
**Navigating Headwinds: Large Market as a Resilient Base, Tech Sovereignty as a Competitive Trump Card**
China's ultra-large-scale market and complete industrial system are significant strategic advantages. The vast market means new technologies can find application scenarios faster and undergo反复验证 across different contexts. The完整的工业体系 provides full-chain support from R&D and pilot testing to mass production.
However, it is crucial to recognize that these advantages can "buy time" but cannot "substitute for breakthroughs." The essence of "chokepoint" issues lies in long-term deficiencies in basic research, underlying algorithms, core materials, and key components. Market advantages do not automatically translate into source创新能力.
Over-reliance on these advantages can lead to several risks: First, a "scale illusion," mistaking installation volume or user numbers for core competitiveness. Second, inducing low-level redundant construction. Third, masking对外依赖 in high-end segments. Fourth, weakening long-termism, making companies more inclined to chase short-term commercialization. The goal should not be to treat the large market as a万能解药 but to use the gained time window to diligently invest in core technology, basic research, and standard system development.
**New Opportunities from "South-South Cooperation"**
Currently, the international rule system for new technologies is still largely in its formation and博弈 stage. Global industrial competition is not just about who develops the technology first but also about who can embed their technological路线 and governance concepts into future rules earlier.
Promoting South-South cooperation helps transform "China solutions" from domestic practice into rule-making with greater international representativeness. More importantly, Global South countries have substantial real needs in urban governance, infrastructure operation and maintenance, and manufacturing upgrades, serving as crucial testing grounds for future technology commercialization.
This有望形成 a new network of共同研发,共同验证, and共同治理, elevating from project synergy to standard synergy, certification synergy, and institutional synergy. It aims to jointly shape a more open, inclusive, and sustainable international technology ecosystem.
**Building an Innovation Ecosystem That "Dares to Try and Err"**
AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals inherently involve high investment, high uncertainty, and long cycles. To build an innovation ecosystem that "dares to try and err,"协同 is needed across regulation, data, and the financial system.
First, review and approval processes must become faster and clearer. For instance, the National Medical Products Administration has proposed completing clinical trial application reviews for eligible innovative drugs within 30 working days, allowing companies to start trials earlier and recoup funds sooner.
Second, while ensuring security,推动高质量 public data可信开放 and efficient circulation is essential.
Third, and most critically, developing "patient capital" is vital. Many hard-tech projects require five, ten, or even longer cycles to bear fruit. It is necessary to引导 government funds, insurance capital, industrial capital, etc., to form a long-term capital structure匹配原始创新. Capital should not only be willing to invest in "hot tracks" but also in "deep-water zones."
**Looking Ahead to 2035: Who Will Lead Global Innovation?**
The交叉融合 of AI, robotics, and future industries will produce disruptive "1+1>2" effects. The six future industries prioritized by the state, deeply intertwined with AI and robotics, will催生全新可能. For example, AI can optimize commercial aerospace rocket flight trajectories, reducing launch costs and fuel consumption. Conversely,太空极端环境 provides an excellent testing ground for AI algorithms.
6G's millisecond-level latency will make remote precise control of robots a reality, opening想象空间 in areas like remote surgery and hazardous environment operations.
The combination of innovative pharmaceuticals and quantum computing is同样前景广阔. Quantum computing can simulate molecular structures with unprecedented efficiency, accelerating new drug target discovery and drug screening.
Among these化学反应, the fusion of "robotics + brain-computer interfaces" and "AI-driven life sciences" holds particular promise. Brain-computer interfaces could enable意念控制, allowing paraplegic patients to control mechanical legs via brain signals to stand and walk again. AI can uncover protein folding patterns and complex gene-disease relationships beyond human detection. This represents not only disruptive technological breakthroughs but also科技向善的人文关怀.
**China's Position in the Global Industrial New Order by 2035**
By then, China should transition from leveraging "major country scale advantages" to exercising "global协同优势," becoming a leader in global industrial chains, a rule-maker, and an innovation frontrunner.
In robotics, based on unique needs like its own intelligent manufacturing升级 and an aging society's service demands, China should掌握 "scene definition rights" and "standard-setting rights," and in turn, export Chinese standards globally.
In AI, China must掌握算力主导权. By then, high-end computing chips有望不再受制于人. Combined with green electricity advantages, China could become a core global provider of computing power services.
In innovative pharmaceuticals, China's innovative drugs should command higher global溢价 based on source创新能力.
Ultimately, on the map of the global industrial new order, China aims to become one of the three major innovation centers alongside the United States and Europe, offering technological solutions and business models distinct from the West, and becoming a true global "cradle of innovation."
Comments