For stock trading, rely on Jinlin Analyst Research Reports — authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! CITIC Securities Research. Authors: Liu Yi, Tian Peng, Wang Tao, Bai Hongwei.
Last week (October 19-23), A-shares opened the week mixed, sold off sharply on Thursday, and staged a V-shaped rebound on Friday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.69%, while the SSE 50 declined 0.38%, showing relative resilience. Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 1000 gaining 0.79%. The ChiNext Index dropped 3.18%, the STAR 50 edged down 0.97%, and the BSE 50 bucked the trend with a 3.67% gain. Computer sector led with a 5.21% advance, machinery and automotive sectors followed higher, coal and conglomerates fell 4.12% to the bottom, and telecommunications gave back 3.72%. Average daily turnover across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets stood at 1.56 trillion yuan, flat versus the prior week. Equity ETFs saw net inflows of approximately 150.6 billion yuan, while margin financing continued net outflows. The sustainability of Friday's sentiment reversal momentum warrants close monitoring.
From the perspective of catalysts and timing, thematic enthusiasm for edge-side AI, embodied intelligence, cybersecurity, and physical AI is expected to heat up. Combining the market environment, catalyst factors, and comprehensive quantitative indicators, attention is recommended on these four thematic directions. Based on backtesting of previously recommended targets, since the establishment of the Biweekly Theme Spotlight column on January 13, 2025, through October 23, 2026, the composite return of the Biweekly Spotlight portfolio within the backtest period reached 138%.
A-Share Overview: Market liquidity remained relatively low. Last week's average daily turnover was approximately 1.58 trillion yuan, essentially flat on a week-over-week basis. Wednesday's single-day turnover contracted to 1.44 trillion yuan, while Friday saw volume expand to 1.97 trillion yuan — a pattern of consolidation on shrinking volume followed by a rebound on expanding volume. Externally, imported inflation and high US Treasury yields continue to pose disturbances. Brent crude oil held near $108 per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.25% to 5.09%, down approximately 16 basis points for the full week. Domestically, both planning guidance and policy implementation advanced in tandem. Third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year, slightly beating expectations. September retail sales growth rebounded to 1.1%. The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session reviewed the "15th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, and the Financial Street Forum signaled incremental progress on interest rate marketization and liquidity tools.
Key Events: GDP data for the first three quarters was released. In the first three quarters of 2026, China's GDP reached 10,710.71 billion yuan, growing 4.6% year-on-year at constant prices. First-quarter growth was 5.0% year-on-year, second-quarter growth was 4.3%, and third-quarter growth was 4.5%, with third-quarter sequential growth of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, high-tech manufacturing value-added output grew 14.3% year-on-year, and equipment manufacturing value-added output grew 10.2% year-on-year.
Catalyst Factors: Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting. The Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27-28. This meeting will not release updated economic projections or the dot plot. According to CME FedWatch data, federal funds futures price a 90.6% probability of keeping the rate range unchanged at this meeting, a 9.4% probability of a 25bp hike, and a 67.5% probability of a 25bp hike being priced in for the December meeting.
Key Focus: The market is in a phase of capital gaming characterized by thematic rotation among active sectors, focusing on themes with high certainty in narrative, events, or earnings. This edition recommends the themes of edge-side AI, embodied intelligence, cybersecurity, and physical AI.
Risk Factors: Further intensification of China-US friction, geopolitical conflict developments exceeding expectations, widening net outflows of market capital, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and AI technology iteration progress falling short of expectations, among others.
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