Apple Market View Market News and Key Data In the futures market, the Apple 2605 contract closed yesterday at 9,504 yuan/ton, a change of +38 yuan/ton from the previous day, representing an increase of +0.40%. In the spot market, the price for 80# Grade 1 and 2 late-season Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 4.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP05-1504, a change of -38 from the prior day. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price for 70# and above semi-premium late-season Fuji apples was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP05-1104, a change of -38 from the prior day. Recent market information indicates that packaging and shipping activities in production areas have accelerated slightly overall. However, transaction volumes for growers' stock in major producing regions remain limited, with the overall market trend maintaining a stable-to-weak tone. Some growers have intensified their urgency to sell. Currently, transactions for growers' stock in Shaanxi are primarily focused on small quantities of both high and low-grade supplies, while merchants continue to mainly ship their own inventory. In Gansu production areas, merchants are sourcing growers' stock as needed, with packaging and shipping activities being relatively stable and movement being acceptable. Transactions in Shandong production areas are average, with gift boxes beginning to be packaged sporadically; shipments are mainly composed of small quantities of 75# and Grade 3 supplies, with overall trading activity being light. In Qixia, prices for growers' 80# Grade 1 and 2 partially red apples range from 3.2 to 4.5 yuan/jin, while prices for 80# standard-grade goods are around 2.5 to 3.0 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi's Luochuan production area, the ex-warehouse price for growers' standard-grade goods is 3.5-4.0 yuan/jin, and for semi-premium goods, it is 4.0-4.3 yuan/jin. In Gansu production areas, the price for growers' semi-premium goods in Jingning is 5-6 yuan/jin, while the ex-warehouse price for growers' average standard-grade goods varies from 3.7 to 5.0 yuan/jin. The enthusiasm of merchants in production areas for packaging and shipping has increased, yet transactions for growers' standard-grade stock remain slow, with some growers showing increased urgency to sell and a willingness to offer discounts. Currently, transit warehouses in sales regions are severely congested, significantly impacted by competing fruits, leading to slow movement of apples. As this week marks a critical node for Spring Festival preparations, close attention should be paid to the shipment situation in wholesale markets and the pace of outbound shipments from production areas. Market Analysis Apple futures prices experienced narrow fluctuations yesterday. The current supply and demand dynamics in the apple market are characterized by support on the supply side, while demand continues to be sluggish. Outbound shipments from production areas primarily rely on pre-holiday stocking demand, yet sales in some local areas remain sluggish, with growers increasingly willing to discount prices to stimulate shipments. In western production areas, merchant purchases are mostly focused on digesting their own inventory; due to a decrease in the proportion of high-quality fruit, prices for average and lower-grade fruit generally maintain a stable-to-weak trend. Last week, major production areas across the country successively entered the Spring Festival stocking phase, with overall trading activity slightly improving compared to earlier periods. However, the stocking atmosphere remains tepid, and market conditions show divergent characteristics. During the week, destocking speeds accelerated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas, but overall transaction volumes were still light. Trading in Gansu production areas was relatively active, with merchants' packaging and shipping being stable; over half of the local growers' stock has been moved, and high-quality goods have largely completed ownership transfer. Across all production areas, merchants mainly ship their own inventory, while transactions for growers' stock are limited, with only low-priced sources seeing some movement. Sales regions performed weakly, with overall slow shipments and severe congestion in transit warehouses, presenting a pattern of "hot production areas, cold sales regions." Arrivals at Guangdong's Cuolong market increased somewhat, but daily consumption capacity was insufficient; wholesalers insisted on purchasing based on immediate needs. High-quality supplies from Luochuan and Jingning maintained some shipment volume supported by their quality, but they also faced significant impact from low-priced substitutes like cherries and citrus fruits. Customer traffic was sparse, consumer sensitivity to apple prices has increased, and the digestion pressure for high-priced, premium fruit is prominent, resulting in generally low enthusiasm for procurement downstream. Due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year, the stocking cycle has been pushed back overall. It is anticipated that packaging and shipping in production areas may improve further, but weakness on the demand side remains the core constraining factor. If the peak seasonal stocking effect continues to be absent, post-holiday inventory digestion pressure will become more pronounced. Subsequent developments require continuous monitoring of terminal consumption recovery, stocking progress, and dynamics in the substitute fruit market. Strategy Neutral. Risk Progress of Spring Festival holiday stocking, weather impacts in production areas, trading situation of substitute fruits.
Jujube Market View Market News and Key Data In the futures market, the Jujube 2605 contract closed yesterday at 8,820 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan/ton from the previous day, representing an increase of +0.68%. In the spot market, the price for Grade 1 gray jujube in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ05-820, a change of -60 from the prior day. Recent market information indicates that the acquisition price range for the 2025 season Xinjiang gray jujube is referenced at 5.00-6.50 yuan/kg. Specifically, the mainstream price for standard-grade goods in the Aksu area is referenced at 5.00-5.30 yuan/kg, in the Alar area at 5.20-5.80 yuan/kg, transaction prices in Kashgar regimental farms are referenced at 6.20-6.40 yuan/kg, and prices in the Maigaiti area are referenced at 6.00-6.30 yuan/kg. Raw material procurement in production areas follows the principle of pricing based on quality, maintaining the standard of higher price for better quality. On January 26, nearly 10 trucks arrived at the parking area of Hebei Cui'erzhuang market, mainly consisting of off-grade goods. With the Laba Festival passing, subsequent stocking intensity may weaken. Currently, local processing factories primarily process and ship their own inventory, and holders are also actively selling. As pre-holiday stocking time is limited, downstream procurement mostly follows a pattern of small quantities and frequent purchases. Six trucks arrived at Guangdong's Ruyifang market, mainly from Hebei, with reference prices of 10.00 yuan/kg for premium grade and 8.80 yuan/kg for Grade 1; morning market transactions were average. According to merchant feedback, logistics will gradually suspend operations between the 15th and 23rd of the twelfth lunar month, leaving limited time for buying and selling before the new year. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Market Analysis Jujube futures prices experienced a slight pullback yesterday before fluctuating within a narrow range. The jujube market has now entered the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking peak season. Supported by the seasonal autumn and winter consumption peak, and compounded by the later timing of the Spring Festival this year which extends the sales cycle, arrival volumes at downstream distribution markets have continued to increase, and transaction volumes have significantly improved compared to the initial period after the new jujube harvest. Downstream channels are generally adopting a low-inventory strategy of "buy as you sell." With only about ten days left before the nationwide logistics suspension, subsequent price trends still depend on the progress of pre-holiday stocking. On the production area front, the acquisition of Xinjiang gray jujube has basically concluded, and jujube trees have entered dormancy. Market focus has shifted to downstream consumption. As raw material harvesting concludes, output figures for various production areas are becoming clearer. Mainland processing factories are gradually suspending operations, with some enterprises forced to halt production due to shipment pressures and finished product accumulation, indicating active industry efforts to reduce capacity. Sales region markets have entered the Spring Festival stocking phase but exhibit characteristics of a weak peak season, with overall light transactions. Traders' willingness to stock up is not strong, with most purchasing based on immediate needs. Overall shipments are primarily driven by small, local replenishment orders, and destocking speeds have slowed, although transactions for off-grade products remain relatively acceptable. Given the current pressure from high carryover jujube inventory and ample supplies from both old and new seasons, coupled with weak consumption demand and pessimistic market sentiment, close attention must be paid to the shipment pace in sales regions, changes in purchaser sentiment, and any abnormal weather conditions in production areas. Strategy Neutral. Risk Supply pressure from old and new season inventories, shipment speed in sales regions, pre-holiday stocking atmosphere.
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