Spot Gold: On May 4, market news: Last Friday (May 1), gold prices performed a deep V-shaped reversal, rebounding from a low of $4,560 to $4,660, and closed nearly flat. Iran's submission of a new negotiation proposal raised expectations for geopolitical easing, but former President Trump's firm stance cast uncertainty over the agreement's prospects. The U.S. military's initiation of the "Freedom of Navigation" operation in the Strait of Hormuz intensified strategic maneuvering. Markets entered a "quiet period" ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, with neither bulls nor bears willing to make large bets before the data is published. Technically: Over the past two weeks, gold has been consolidating sideways within the $4,560–$4,660 range, with volatility continuously contracting. This "calm before the storm" often signals an impending significant price move. If the non-farm payroll data falls below expectations, rate cut expectations will quickly intensify, potentially pushing gold above the $4,660 resistance level towards $4,710 or even $4,830. If the data exceeds expectations, gold may break below the $4,560 support, testing $4,510 or even $4,400. Overall, gold is in a volatile pattern with "support below and pressure above": the $4,560–$4,510 zone is underpinned by central bank purchases and physical demand, while the $4,660–$4,710 zone is capped by expectations of high interest rates. On the hourly chart, gold prices have formed a "narrow-range box" between $4,580 and $4,620, with the Bollinger Bands severely contracting, indicating an imminent breakout. The RSI is hovering near the 50 neutral line, and the MACD lines are converging, showing no clear direction. If spot gold stabilizes above $4,620, the short-term bias is bullish; if it falls below $4,580, prices may test $4,560 or even $4,510. Tonight, key resistance levels to watch are $4,628 and $4,665, while support levels are $4,557 and $4,513. Evening Trading Recommendations for Gold: Personal suggestion: Buy on a pullback to $4,518 ± 3, sell on a rebound to $4,620 ± 3, with a stop loss of 15 dollars each, targeting 30/80 dollars profit! [GOLD Pivot: $4,557 per ounce! The above views are for reference only; diversify positions reasonably and strictly control risks!]
WTI Crude Oil: Market news: The global crude oil market is undergoing an unprecedented structural split in supply and demand dynamics. On Sunday (May 3), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) formally announced after an online meeting that seven core member countries will increase their crude oil production targets by an additional 188,000 barrels per day in June. This marks the third consecutive month the group has raised output quotas since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, against the backdrop of continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the production increase plan, while nominal, faces practical challenges in boosting physical supply, significantly diminishing the substantive impact of this adjustment. Technically: On Monday (May 4), U.S. crude oil prices traded around $102.570 per barrel, up 0.63%. Crude oil prices have recently shown volatile trading near current levels, having held above the key support of $98.70, successfully preventing further losses. This stability is accompanied by price finding support at the EMA50, providing a positive impetus that helped it rebound quickly. With the short-term bullish trend dominant, the chances for a sustained recovery are increasing, especially after the Relative Strength Index showed a positive crossover upon reaching oversold levels. These technical signals enhance the likelihood of a continued bullish rebound, as the market focuses on prices maintaining current support and utilizing the gained positive momentum. Tonight, key resistance levels to watch are $106.2 and $109.2, while support levels are $100.6 and $98.7. Evening Trading Recommendations for Crude Oil: Personal suggestion: Buy on a pullback to $101.8 ± 3, sell on a rebound to $105.6 ± 3, with a stop loss of 1.5 points each, targeting a profit of 3.0 dollars per barrel!
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