Abstract
Archer-Daniels Midland will report its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 03, 2026, Pre-Market.
Market Forecast
Consensus and the company’s guidance framework indicate fiscal Q4 revenue of $21.06 billion, down 7.07% year over year; EBIT is forecast at $303.00 million, down 63.08% year over year; adjusted EPS is projected at $0.80, down 30.68% year over year, and margin expectations imply a cautious mix with limited gross margin expansion. Segment commentary suggests a muted quarter for Agricultural Services & Oilseeds on softer crush margins and lower merchandising volumes, while Corn Processing and Nutrition should be mixed with modest stabilization visible in sweeteners and specialty ingredients. The most promising business into Q4 remains Nutrition, where specialty ingredients and pet solutions are positioned to recover; the segment delivered $1.92 billion last quarter and remains a focus for incremental growth.
Last Quarter Review
Archer-Daniels Midland’s prior quarter delivered revenue of $20.37 billion, a gross profit margin of 6.23%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.08 million, a net profit margin of 0.53%, and adjusted EPS of $0.92, with year-over-year adjusted EPS down 15.60%.
Net income declined quarter on quarter by 50.68%, reflecting pressure from subdued crush economics and weaker trading conditions, even as adjusted EPS outperformed consensus. Main business highlights: Agricultural Services & Oilseeds contributed $15.61 billion, Corn Processing contributed $2.73 billion, Nutrition contributed $1.92 billion, and Other contributed $0.11 billion.
Current Quarter Outlook
Agricultural Services & Oilseeds
Agricultural Services & Oilseeds is the core revenue engine, and Q4 performance will hinge on global oilseed crush margins, origination flows, and risk-managed merchandising. Forecast commentary points to softer crush spreads compared with the prior-year quarter, which will weigh on EBIT and segment margin, while origination volumes could be constrained by uneven crop supplies and slower farmer selling. Logistics efficiency and risk management may mitigate some headwinds, but with consensus revenue declining and EBIT down sharply, investors should expect margin compression to persist. Watch for signs of a late-quarter improvement in basis and throughput as Northern Hemisphere inventories normalize; any stabilization in soybean meal demand would be supportive for utilization and pricing.
Corn Processing
Corn Processing is expected to show mixed trends across sweeteners, starches, ethanol, and bioproducts. Ethanol margins have oscillated through the quarter, but improved plant reliability and disciplined hedging can support steady utilization. The sweeteners and starches subsegment appears comparatively more stable with steady contract pricing, though volume growth remains capped by customer destocking and cautious industrial demand. Any incremental price-cost tailwind from lower corn input costs would offer modest relief to gross margin, yet consensus still implies limited contribution to consolidated EBIT given broad-based pressure in oilseeds. Investors should look for commentary on product mix upgrades and commercial wins into food and beverage customers, which can cushion top-line softness and strengthen unit economics over the next few quarters.
Nutrition
Nutrition remains the most promising business for structural margin improvement and diversified growth. Specialty ingredients in flavors, colors, and health & wellness are positioned to benefit from improved customer order patterns and innovation-led mix, while Animal Nutrition and Pet Solutions continue to execute on pipeline opportunities. With last quarter revenue at $1.92 billion, the segment offers potential for sequential stabilization as supply chain frictions ease and private-label initiatives scale. The near-term risk is uneven demand recovery in certain categories, but execution on product launches and disciplined cost control can sustain margin resiliency. Investors should monitor disclosures on backlog, order intake, and pricing in specialty ingredients, as these will indicate whether the segment can accelerate despite headwinds in the broader ag commodity complex.
Stock Price Drivers
This quarter’s stock performance will be most influenced by realized crush margins versus expectations, the depth of EBIT compression relative to consensus, and the trajectory of Nutrition segment growth. A print that confirms the forecasted revenue decline and EBIT pressure but signals improving exit-rate margins could be viewed constructively. Conversely, a sharper-than-expected deterioration in Agricultural Services & Oilseeds or a setback in Nutrition’s order momentum would likely weigh on sentiment. Capital allocation commentary, including buybacks and balance sheet flexibility, will also be relevant for valuation support as the market assesses trough earnings risk.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional views skew constructive. UBS reiterated a Buy rating on Archer-Daniels Midland with a $70.00 price target, highlighting anticipated execution through cyclical pressure and a path to margin normalization supported by Nutrition and risk-managed crush operations. Bullish opinions outweigh bearish views in the observed period, with supportive commentary focused on the company’s diversified portfolio and the opportunity for EBIT recovery as commodity spreads stabilize. The majority view emphasizes that despite a challenging quarter, disciplined operations and portfolio balance can underpin a gradual earnings bridge into the next fiscal year, with upside contingent on stabilization in oilseed processing and continued progress in specialty ingredients. The constructive stance centers on valuation support and operational resilience, suggesting investors will look beyond near-term revenue and EBIT declines if management provides confident visibility on segment-level margin trajectories and commercial pipeline strength.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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