**Protein Meal:** On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit-taking. Soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all fell. U.S. soybean planting is progressing smoothly, at the fastest pace for this time of year on record. The soybean emergence rate is better than expected. Weather forecasts indicate the potential risk of El Niño is developing, prompting funds to begin positioning in the market, paying a premium for weather risks during the critical July-August U.S. soybean growing period. Institutions project that Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2026/27 season is expected to increase by 400,000 hectares, the smallest increase in nearly 20 years, due to narrowing soybean planting profits and high fertilizer prices. Brazil's soybean exports for May are estimated at 16.1 million metric tons, up from a previous estimate of 16 million. Domestically, protein meal prices followed the upward trend, maintaining a volatile but firm pattern. China faces significant pressure from soybean arrivals in May, coupled with severe losses in the livestock sector, causing spot prices to lag behind futures and keeping basis markets weak. There are no supply concerns for domestic soybean meal, with rising import costs providing support. The trading strategy suggests short-term long positions.
**Edible Oils:** On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose for the third consecutive day due to potential supply tightening. With weather risks and trade flow uncertainties looming, Malaysian palm oil prices for June are expected to remain around MYR 4,400 per metric ton. Indonesia's exports are projected to decrease by 1.7 million metric tons, while Malaysia's exports are expected to increase by 400,000 metric tons. Malaysian producers are scaling back replanting efforts. Domestically, the edible oil market is expected to remain firm, with rapeseed oil showing the strongest gains, followed by palm oil, while soybean oil is the weakest. Rising palm oil import costs are driving up domestic market prices. As rapeseed arrivals increase, crushers' operations have notably recovered, leading to a gradual increase in rapeseed oil supply and inventory rebuilding. The clearance speed for Brazilian soybeans remains slow, and with an upcoming auction for 60,000 metric tons of imported soybeans, soybean oil inventories are expected to gradually accumulate. The strategy recommends long positions.
**Live Hogs:** On Tuesday, the nearby live hog July 2026 contract initially rose then fell, while spot hog prices held steady, leading to a convergence of the futures premium. Spot market hog quotations were stable with minor adjustments, with prices slightly up in Henan and stable in Anhui. The average ex-farm price in Henan was 9.97 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. Large-scale farms there quoted 10.00-10.20 yuan/kg for premium hogs weighing 120-130kg; medium and small farms quoted around 9.80 yuan/kg for mainstream 120-125kg hogs; premium large hogs weighing 155-165kg were quoted at 9.80-10.10 yuan/kg. The average ex-farm price in Anhui was 9.99 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day. Large-scale farms there quoted 9.90-10.10 yuan/kg, with a high of 10.20 yuan/kg, for 120-130kg premium hogs; medium and small farms quoted 9.80-10.00 yuan/kg for similar hogs; 150-165kg premium hogs were quoted around 10.00 yuan/kg. Technically, spot hog market quotations remain stable, with Henan spot prices holding at the 10 yuan/kg psychological level. The July contract price corrected, while the September contract awaits buying opportunities after the adjustment concludes. The strategy suggests temporary short-term long positions.
**Eggs:** On Tuesday, the main egg futures July 2026 contract surged intraday before retreating, closing down 0.99% at 3,791 yuan per 500 kg. Far-month contracts outperformed near-month contracts. On the spot market, data shows the national average egg price yesterday was 4.35 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. In production areas, pink-shell eggs in Ningjin were 4.25 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin; brown-shell eggs in Heishan were 4.10 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. In consumption areas, brown-shell eggs in Puxi were 4.51 yuan/jin, unchanged; brown-shell eggs in Guangzhou were 4.65 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. Producers are actively selling, with stable supply from production areas. Market digestion varies, with cautious end-user sentiment leading to primarily need-based procurement, resulting in a price correction. As spot prices rebounded, farming profits increased, reducing culling意愿, which is unfavorable for future capacity reduction. Coupled with the upcoming rainy season, where traders are cautious in building inventory, egg prices face downward pressure. However, futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels in the short term. The focus is on opportunities to sell on rallies, while being alert to potential disturbances from increased culling volume and rising prices of related commodities.
**Corn:** On Tuesday, the main corn futures July 2026 contract closed with a small bearish candlestick. The spot market was influenced by rainfall expectations increasing the proportion of sprouted wheat, leading to volatile futures prices amid expectations of increased substitute supply. Over the weekend, corn prices in Northeast China were relatively stable, with traders maintaining a steady心态 and limited willingness to sell at low prices. However, market trading activity is not high, and the digestion of Northeast grain is currently slow. Short-term market sentiment is bearish, with prices expected to be slightly weak. Over the weekend, corn prices in North China were generally stable, with minor increases at a few companies, and the market remains volatile. Traders in North China are still gradually clearing inventories, but the pressure has eased. With rainy weather forecast for North China this week, affecting corn trading, market supply is expected to weaken, supporting stable to firm prices. Over the weekend, corn prices in consumption areas adjusted locally. Grassroots inventories are nearly depleted, with ongoing low arrivals, leading traders to hold back supplies and support prices. The upcoming new wheat harvest is expected to increase feed substitution; downstream demand remains sluggish with limited consumption recovery. Localized moisture risks and some companies controlling quality by压低 prices are also factors. Overall, the corn market continues to monitor pressure from wheat harvests, rice auctions, and imported grain arrivals on supply. The medium-term outlook for corn prices remains weak.
Comments