On September 30, gold prices staged a choppy rebound. After opening higher, the metal broke above 4,140 during the afternoon session, prompting an exit from short positions near 4,135 and a switch to long positions. Gold then drifted upward, with the position manually closed near 4,170 during the U.S. session, capturing nearly $30 in profit. The metal ultimately settled at $4,181, posting a daily gain.
On Wednesday (September 30), New York Fed President Williams said a hike had already been delivered in September and there was no need to rush another move now. Once that remark landed, the market slightly eased its fear of a "definite October hike," the 2-year Treasury yield pulled back from its highs, and gold took the opportunity to rebound. This, however, is not a case of "the gold bull market is back" — it is simply cooling rate-hike panic plus a technically oversold bounce.
Tonight at 20:15, the U.S. August ADP employment report will be released. If the data comes in strong, rate-hike expectations could firm and weigh on gold; if it comes in weak, rate-hike expectations could cool and give gold some breathing room. But the real test is Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The market expects August nonfarm payrolls to show about 53,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. This report will directly shape how the market prices whether a hike comes in October. Before the data lands, gold is likely to trade in a 4,080-4,200 range.
Technically, watch the 4,190-4,200 resistance zone on the upside during the day. That area marks the upper boundary of the hourly chart's range and also serves as converted trendline resistance, while the 5-day moving average sits near 4,210. So the 4,200-4,210 zone can be treated as key suppression — as long as it holds, the broader structure stays bearish. On the downside, first watch the 4,150-4,140 area, the pullback low from the overnight U.S. session. A break below would raise the odds that the short-term market returns to weak rangebound trading; if price does not fall back below that level during the day, the risk of a shift in short-term direction also increases.
In short, ADP tonight, jobless claims tomorrow, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday — a dense data calendar means volatility could widen. With September drawing to a close, gold is still searching for a bottom. There is no rush to buy the dip, and no rush to chase shorts — wait for the data to give a fresh signal. Conservative gold traders can sit out until after the National Day holiday, while aggressive traders can keep trading the range before nonfarm payrolls and follow the trend after it.
For intraday trading, the recommendation is: Gold: short at 4,180-4,182, stop loss at 4,190, target 4,120-4,110.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 20:15 U.S. September ADP employment change; 20:30 U.S. August core PCE price index annual rate; 20:30 U.S. August personal spending monthly rate; 20:30 U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate final reading; 20:30 U.S. second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate final reading; 20:30 U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate final reading; 20:30 U.S. August core PCE price index monthly rate; 21:45 U.S. September Chicago PMI; next day 01:30 Fed's Barkin speaks at an event; next day 03:25 Fed Governor Cook delivers remarks.
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