China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that in December 2025, excavator domestic and export sales grew by +10.9% and +26.9% respectively. Both medium and large excavators achieved positive growth in domestic sales, while the export growth rate for large excavators remained impressive. In November, domestic sales of truck/crawler/lorry-mounted cranes, forklifts, and aerial work platforms all recorded double-digit year-on-year growth. Overseas, demand in Europe and America has shown some recovery, with mining machinery demand being particularly strong. In 2024, the export volume of domestic brands accounted for 19.2% of global demand (excluding China), indicating significant room for further improvement.
According to association data, excavator sales in December reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of +19.2%. Domestic sales accounted for 10,331 units, up +10.9% year-on-year, while exports reached 12,764 units, surging +26.9% year-on-year. For the full year 2025, total excavator sales were 235,257 units, an increase of +17% year-on-year. Domestic sales totaled 118,518 units, rising +17.9% year-on-year, and exports reached 116,739 units, growing +16.1% year-on-year. By product structure, both medium and large excavators saw positive growth in domestic sales, with large excavator exports continuing their strong growth momentum.
Loader domestic sales increased by +17.6% year-on-year in December, while exports jumped +41.5% year-on-year. For the full year 2025, loader domestic sales grew +22.1% year-on-year, and exports increased +14.6% year-on-year. The electrification rate in December was 22.25%, down 3.46 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative electrification rate for 2025 was approximately 23.25%, an increase of 12.88 percentage points compared to 2024.
Data from the association showed double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic sales for truck cranes, crawler cranes, lorry-mounted cranes, forklifts, and aerial work platforms in November. The specific sales growth rates for November were: truck cranes (total +17%/domestic +26%/export +8.5%); crawler cranes (total +66%/domestic +102%/export +53%); lorry-mounted cranes (total +45%/domestic +36%/export +86%); tower cranes (total -32%/domestic -49%/export +3.2%); forklifts (total +14%/domestic +24%/export +0.7%); aerial work platforms (total -22%/domestic +21%/export -40%).
Domestic operating hours in December continued to show a year-on-year decline. Komatsu's overseas operating hours for November indicated positive year-on-year growth in North America and Indonesia, while Europe and Japan experienced declines. Association data showed that the average monthly operating hours for major construction machinery products in December were 76.5 hours, down 18.6% year-on-year and 9.19% month-on-month. The monthly operating rate for major products was 51.8%, a decrease of 12.5 percentage points year-on-year and 4.72 percentage points month-on-month.
According to Komatsu's official website, the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in November 2025 in North America, Europe, Japan, and Indonesia were 60.4h, 71.2h, 43.2h, and 210.6h respectively, representing year-on-year changes of +3.0%, -1.8%, -2.9%, and +2.8%. China's construction machinery export value from January to November increased by +12.4% year-on-year. John Deere forecasts a 15-20% decline for the large agricultural machinery industry in North America in 2026.
Customs data shows that China's cumulative construction machinery export value from January to November 2025 was $53.756 billion, an increase of +12.4% year-on-year. John Deere's 2026 industry forecasts predict: North American large agricultural machinery down 15-20%, small agricultural and turf machinery slightly up 0-5%; European agricultural machinery up 0-5%; South America flat; Asia down 5%. Earthmoving machinery & compact equipment in the US and Canada is expected to grow 0-5%.
On December 30th, Sany Heavy Equipment held its supplier conference, outlining a strategy for 2026 focused on domestic structural adjustment and capturing overseas growth. Regarding investment targets, based on the synchronized upward trend in both domestic and external demand, the report recommends leading OEMs Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), Liugong (000528.SZ), Zoomlion (000157.SZ), and core component manufacturer Hengli Hydraulics (601100.SH).
Risks include potential underperformance of the macroeconomy, slower-than-expected policy implementation, intensifying industry competition, export trade disputes, and exchange rate fluctuations.
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