A confidential Russian document reviewed by Bloomberg indicates the Kremlin has proposed a series of measures that could lead to Russia re-embracing the U.S. dollar system, as part of a broader economic partnership with a potential future Trump administration.
The high-level memorandum, drafted this year, outlines seven key points. From the Kremlin's perspective, these areas represent potential convergence points for Russian and American economic interests should an agreement be reached to end the conflict in Ukraine. The proposal envisions joint support for fossil fuels over green energy alternatives, combined investments in natural gas, offshore oil, and critical raw materials, while also offering additional benefits for U.S. corporations.
Circulated among senior Russian officials, the document reveals the Kremlin's tactical considerations at a critical juncture. A potential U.S.-Russia economic agreement is now being viewed as a central pillar for any future Ukraine peace deal. The core of this proposal is a Russian return to the dollar-based settlement system, which would mark a dramatic policy reversal and could trigger significant upheaval in the global financial system.
The United States has previously suggested a phased removal of sanctions against Russia as part of a peace agreement, a necessary precondition for restoring dollar transactions. However, the scope of the plan outlined in the Kremlin memo extends far beyond this.
Finding alternatives to the dollar has been a central Russian objective. Consequently, Western government officials familiar with the document assess the likelihood of Putin ultimately pursuing a return to the dollar system as extremely low.
The Kremlin spokesman did not respond to a request for comment. It remains unclear whether Russia has formally presented the points in the document to the United States.
The memorandum highlights the following areas for potential U.S.-Russia economic cooperation:
* Long-term aviation contracts: Aimed at modernizing Russia's aircraft fleet, with potential U.S. involvement in Russian manufacturing. * Oil and LNG joint ventures: Including offshore and hard-to-recover reserves, considering previous U.S. investments, and allowing American companies to recoup past losses. * Preferential terms: Facilitating the return of U.S. companies to the Russian consumer market. * Nuclear energy cooperation: Including projects for applications in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. * Return to the dollar settlement system: Potentially including the use of dollars in Russian energy transactions. * Raw materials cooperation: Involving resources such as lithium, copper, nickel, and platinum. * Promotion of fossil fuels: Positioned as an alternative to climate-friendly ideologies and low-emission solutions.
Prior to the full-scale escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Putin had been actively working to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. After the U.S. and its allies used their control over dollar transactions to sanction the Russian economy, Moscow pivoted to developing alternative currencies and payment systems.
Therefore, a return to the dollar system would signify Russia once again submitting to Washington's financial dominance. Simultaneously, it would represent a major victory for a Trump administration.
Other details of the plan appear tailored to Trump's ambitions. For instance, the proposal to compensate U.S. companies for losses in Russia echoes demands Trump made regarding Venezuela. The resistance to low-carbon technologies favored by Europe is seen as specifically appealing to Trump, a president who has publicly criticized wind turbines.
Western officials familiar with the memo noted that some suggestions seem designed to create divisions between the U.S. and its European allies in Ukraine. Furthermore, some long-term promises involving large financial figures might serve as bait to entice Trump into a deal, with no guarantee of realization.
The memo argues that returning to the dollar system would enable Russia to expand its foreign exchange market and reduce volatility in its balance of payments. For the United States, such a move would further cement the dollar's status as the global reserve currency.
Earlier this month, the Ukrainian president stated that Russia and the U.S. have been discussing a large-scale bilateral economic agreement concurrently with peace negotiations involving Kyiv. He claimed Ukrainian intelligence obtained this proposal, referred to as the "Dmitriev Package," named after Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, who also heads Russia's sovereign wealth fund.
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