Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On Monday, June 22, spot gold was trading near $4,179 per ounce in early Asian trading. While geopolitical uncertainty provides support, a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve are limiting gold's gains. Gold fell over 1% last Friday, closing at $4,155.44 per ounce after touching a low of $4,121.79, its weakest level in over a week. This marks the third consecutive weekly decline. Since hitting a record high near $5,600 per ounce on January 29, gold has retreated by more than 26%. This downtrend is driven by a confluence of factors: a shift in Fed policy, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and negative feedback from capital flows.
Technical Perspective on Gold
A straightforward technical analysis indicates the core focus this week is whether the daily chart adjustment has conclusively ended. Last week, gold experienced a significant pullback below the daily Bollinger Band middle line at $4,382, forming three consecutive bearish daily candles and showing pronounced weakness. Although the price has temporarily found support around $4,121, the overall market structure remains weak. Consequently, gold is likely to continue its weak, range-bound movement this week, with the potential to set new lows. Key support levels to watch are $4,120, followed by $4,050. However, excessive bearishness is unwarranted. Once this daily chart adjustment phase concludes, a corrective rebound is expected. This week, prices may attempt a recovery to test resistance near the daily Bollinger Band middle line at $4,350. A sustained break and hold above $4,350 would open the path for further gains, with an upside target around $4,500.
Looking at the four-hour chart, the current rebound has largely confirmed a bottoming formation. The rapid bounce following this morning's dip serves as a clear signal. The Bollinger Bands are gradually contracting, with moving averages across timeframes converging and turning upward, collectively indicating emerging bullish signals. This week, the rebound momentum from the four-hour chart is likely to drive a recovery in the daily trend. Short-term focus should be on the key resistance levels at $4,250 and $4,350. The overall strategy for the week is to look for buying opportunities on dips, anticipating the subsequent upward movement. The short-term price has initially stabilized around $4,200. With progress in U.S.-Iran talks, the primary trading approach is to buy on dips. The current trading range is between $4,170 and $4,250. For the Asian session, long positions can be considered in the $4,170-$4,150 range, while short positions can be looked at in the $4,250-$4,260 range. If the price directly breaks above $4,235 in the morning, consider buying on a pullback to the $4,220-$4,224 zone. In summary, the short-term trading strategy for gold today primarily suggests buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is at $4,220-$4,250, and key short-term support is at $4,130-$4,100.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
In Asian trading on Monday, international oil prices opened significantly higher. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude opened with a gap-up of over $1, briefly retesting the $78 per barrel level. However, as market sentiment cooled, prices failed to extend gains, showing signs of profit-taking at higher levels and turning lower intraday. It is currently trading around $75.80. This price increase is mainly attributed to renewed tensions in the Middle East. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday in response to new Israeli military actions in Lebanon. Following the news, the market quickly priced in potential supply risks, driving oil prices higher in the short term.
Technical Perspective on Crude Oil
From a daily chart perspective, oil prices are fluctuating around the moving average system, indicating a medium-term objective trend of consolidation. The overall market structure has been in a sideways, secondary rhythm for over three months. With bearish momentum strengthening near the lower boundary of the range, the medium-term outlook suggests a high probability of breaking below this support and initiating a downtrend. On the short-term one-hour chart, prices are oscillating within a lower range, showing a consolidating objective trend. Momentum is mixed, with bullish momentum showing signs of gradual strengthening. In terms of pattern, a head-and-shoulders bottom reversal formation is evident. It is anticipated that after a retest of the neckline today, oil prices may form a wave of upward rebound momentum. In summary, the suggested trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is at $78.0-$80.0, and key short-term support is at $74.0-$72.0.
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