SpaceX officially began trading on Friday, with its share price surging more than 25% on its debut. The fervor of retail investors scrambling for shares stands in stark contrast to widespread skepticism about the company's valuation. The allure of Elon Musk, fear of missing out (FOMO), and an unusually high retail allocation have collectively shaped this market spectacle dubbed the "IPO Super Bowl."
The proportion of the IPO shares allocated to retail investors in this offering is just over 20%, lower than the previously anticipated 30% but still significantly above the typical 5% to 10% range seen in standard IPOs.
To compete for this allocation, retail investors flooded brokerage platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab with subscription requests. Fidelity lowered its account balance participation threshold for this IPO to $2,000, a substantial drop from its usual requirement of $100,000 to $500,000. Robinhood saw its trading volume hit a record high today.
Interviews with multiple retail investors reveal that the vast majority do not intend to hold the shares long-term. Instead, they are betting that the first-day trading will provide a window for quick profits. The core driver for their participation is a belief in Elon Musk's ability to execute his vision.
The fundamental signals supporting the high valuation have also drawn attention. SpaceX recently secured major computing power procurement agreements with Anthropic and Google, more than doubling the company's revenue expectations for 2026. Concurrently, a minority of investors are looking further ahead, positioning this investment as a ticket to bet on the long-term narrative of the space economy.
SpaceX set its IPO price at $135 per share, implying a valuation of $1.77 trillion. The stock opened at $150, surged over 25% intraday to around $170, and reached a high of $176.52. It ultimately closed up 19% at $161.
Absurd Valuation Fails to Deter Subscription Frenzy
Marvin Jung is a typical example among the retail crowd. The 51-year-old operations manager in the veterinary industry bluntly stated that SpaceX is going public at a "very, very aggressive" valuation, calling it "frankly, absurd, stupid, unreasonable." Yet, he still submitted a request for 1,000 shares through Robinhood.
Active in the market during the meme stock frenzy and a long-time follower of Reddit investment forums, Jung's entry is not based on fundamentals but on betting on sentiment resonance. He said, "SpaceX plus what Musk is doing is like a beautiful symphony of all the right meme triggers. I'm guessing it will be up at least 30% on the first day."
He plans to sell shortly after the opening and keep the proceeds ready for the next wave of major IPOs, like Anthropic and OpenAI.
However, investors must note brokerage "anti-flipping" clauses. For example, at Fidelity, selling allocated shares within 15 calendar days of listing can affect an investor's eligibility for future public offerings.
Retail enthusiasm is also evident on social media. Data from Breakout Point shows that mentions of SpaceX on the Reddit forum WallStreetBets have exceeded 1,600 since Monday.
FOMO Drives Investment Rationale: "Betting Against Musk, I Miss Out"
Mikey Moran admits he hasn't "fully thought this trade through" but chose to participate anyway. The 49-year-old founder of a hair and beauty supply company requested 20 shares through Robinhood, was allocated 11, and views it as a short-term, not long-term, holding.
His motivation stems partly from a past lesson: in 2018, he bought Tesla stock, sold it for a profit after a few weeks, and subsequently missed out on over 1,700% gains from the stock.
"It's hard to bet against Musk," he described Musk as "someone who actually gets things done." In July 2025, he bought 10,000 shares of Opendoor Technologies, and the stock surged about 79% over the next two days—an experience that reinforced his confidence in catching short-term moves for this IPO.
Andrew Chen, a 21-year-old finance and computer science student at Cornell University, has firsthand pain. He previously went long on several airline connectivity stocks, betting they would be immune to competition, only to be upended by SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet network. He said, "I bet against Musk and was very, very wrong."
This time, he requested 5 shares via Robinhood and intends to hold them long-term. "From corporate finance and fundamentals, you can't model your way to a $1.7 trillion valuation. But that's the whole point—it's all about future execution."
Divergent Retail Strategies: Quick Flips Versus Long-Term Buys
Not all retail investors are rushing in. Ross Cameron, founder of the trading education platform Warrior Trading with over 2 million YouTube subscribers, requested 2,500 shares through Charles Schwab but is approaching it cautiously.
"We are buying at the highest price in history. That literally defines 'dumb money.'"
Cameron stated his actual decision depends on the final allocation size—a large allocation would imply weak demand, leading him to pass, while a small allocation would signal strong demand, making it worth considering.
Even if he participates, he prefers to wait for a potential price pullback, for insider selling to occur, and for lock-up periods to expire before re-evaluating. "That's when there might be a real actionable opportunity."
In contrast, 30-year-old Helaine Markham is looking much further ahead. She and her husband Blane Markham run the trading education platform Markham Trading. She requested only two shares via Robinhood but plans to build a position gradually. She is focused on long-term potential in nascent space-related industries like mineral mining and space-based AI data centers.
"I really want to hold for 10-plus years to fully realize the long-term growth opportunity. It could even become a generational investment to pass down to my kids."
Space Economy Story Attracts Long-Term Capital Interest
Maurits Pot, CEO of Tema ETFs, is skeptical of the retail logic focused on quick flips.
He manages the world's largest space-themed ETF, the Tema Space Innovators ETF. Launched in late March, the fund has approximately $2.6 billion in assets under management. It is currently the only space-themed ETF that will hold SpaceX directly, with the position expected to be around 7% of the fund's net asset value. The fund is up about 40% quarter-to-date.
"If people are investing in the space economy, going in and out of the SpaceX IPO seems a bit silly. The space economy is only going to grow. The SpaceX IPO is not the finish line."
Pot anticipates that by 2030, there will be multiple space-related companies among the constituents of the S&P 500 index.
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