CICC has released a research report maintaining an "Outperform" rating on CSPC PHARMA (01093) and raising its target price by 9.1% to HK$12, citing the continued realization of out-licensing deals. The firm maintains its profit forecasts for the company at RMB 4.76 billion and RMB 5.353 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while introducing a new 2027 forecast of RMB 5.695 billion. CSPC PHARMA announced it has entered into a research collaboration and licensing agreement with AstraZeneca PLC. CICC's primary views are as follows: This agreement represents another milestone breakthrough for the out-licensing of China's innovative drugs. According to the announcement, CSPC PHARMA and its subsidiary have granted AstraZeneca PLC exclusive rights to develop, manufacture, and commercialize eight innovative long-acting peptide drug projects globally (excluding mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan). These projects include SYH2082 and three pre-clinical stage molecules, with collaboration on four additional new projects. AstraZeneca PLC will pay a total of $1.2 billion in upfront payments, plus potential future development and sales milestone payments that could reach up to $3.5 billion and $13.8 billion, respectively. Jushi Biologics, a subsidiary controlled by Sino Biopharmaceutical, is entitled to receive 35% of the upfront payment and, based on actual circumstances, corresponding subsequent development/sales milestone payments and royalty fees. Multinational corporations are making significant bets on ultra-long-acting peptide drugs, competing fiercely in the vast market for weight loss and metabolic diseases. In November 2025, Pfizer ultimately acquired the weight-loss drug developer Metsera for $10 billion after a intense bidding war with Novo Nordisk. Metsera's proprietary NuSH platform enabled an ultra-long half-life for MET-097 (a GLP-1 agent in Phase II clinical trials), providing a pharmacokinetic basis for monthly injections. CSPC's SYH2082 is a long-acting GLP1R/GIP agonist advancing to Phase I clinical trials with a once-monthly injection regimen, and strong efficacy and safety data readouts are anticipated. The continued execution of out-licensing deals is expected to form a stream of regular income for the company. In 2025, the company has already completed out-licensing deals for an oral small molecule GLP-1 ($120 million upfront), a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca PLC ($110 million upfront), Irinotecan Liposome ($15 million upfront), and a ROR1 ADC ($15 million upfront). The company's R&D pipeline also includes other innovative assets with leading progress, such as the EGFR ADC and siRNA series, which are expected to yield further out-licensing deals and milestone revenue recognition. Risks include R&D failure, price cuts from volume-based procurement, commercialization falling short of expectations, and out-licensing deals not meeting forecasts.
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