巴菲特的逆市抄底攻略：石油股“能买多少买多少”

中国经济周刊2022-06-05

作者：邹松霖近期，在巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司2022年股东大会上，91岁的巴菲特和98岁的芒格再度搭档亮相。当被问及如何像伯克希尔那样把握投资时机时，巴菲特回答：“从来都没搞清楚怎么确定市场的时机，我们偶尔抓住些机会，不是因为我们更聪明，而是我们更理智。不要因为市场或经济的情况去买卖，而是在觉得投资对象价格便宜的时候买入。”巴菲特是这样说的，伯克希尔也是这样做的。今年以来，美股大幅下跌，美国...

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Comments

自由人飞翔
2022-06-06
自由人飞翔
虧的還沒賣，沒錢投資
cammietang90
2022-06-06
cammietang90
Pls like, thank you
美美滴玩
2022-06-06
美美滴玩
跟着股神一起買！
JWZ137
2022-06-06
JWZ137
Great
兰兰_3975
2022-06-06
兰兰_3975
ban。 vzz
嘞撸虎7
2022-06-06
嘞撸虎7
閱

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47%，并且涨势不减。西方石油公司股价今年飙升了91%，成为标准普尔500指数中表现最好的股票。在股东大会上，巴菲特曾表示：“现在美国联邦政府有上十亿桶的石油存储量。现在大家觉得，这个国家有这么多储油是好事，仔细想想其实不够多。3到5年这些储量就没了，你也不知道三五年后会怎样。”投资石油股的举措是他对油价长期上涨的押注。而在众多石油股里，巴菲特和西方石油早有“错失”的渊源。2020年巴菲特曾因西方石油沉重的负债与行业前景堪忧，清空了他所持有的西方石油股票。而2021年石油价格的平稳上涨，给予了西方石油大翻身的机会，不但经营性现金流相较2020年涨了两倍多，达到102亿美元，营收和利润也令人鼓舞。巴菲特在接受采访时表示，他阅读了西方石油公司2021年第四季度财报电话会议记录，认为CEO“在以正确的方式管理公司”，才决定购买西方石油的股份。同时，巴菲特还强调称：“对于西方石油，我们能买多少就买多少。”今年5月，伯克希尔公司又斥资5200万美元，购买了约90.2万股西方石油公司股票。再加入“价值游戏”在伯克希尔一季度新建仓的8只股票中，引起争议的是花旗银行。根据持仓报告，伯克希尔一季度清仓了持有近33年的“经典之作”富国银行，买入5500万股花旗集团的股票，价值约30亿美元。花旗银行多年来产生的回报低于同行，又在近两年面临监管问题，包括在2020 年被联邦监管机构处以4亿美元的罚款，还有因未能改善与合规、数据和风险管理相关的内部控制，收到美国货币监理署 （OCC） 的业务停止令。花旗银行近12个月股价下跌近40%，远超过银行股总体下跌幅度。2020年，新任首席执行官弗雷泽上任后，即宣布目前花旗银行正在处置旗下盈利效益不佳的亚洲零售银行业务，此后花旗在亚洲的业务将转向财富管理方面。有人认为花旗银行是个价值陷阱，也有人认为这只股“很巴菲特”：股价被低估，股息率诱人。花旗集团目前的交易价格不到其有形账面价值的 60%，年股息收益率4.3%远超过富国银行。管理层也已明确表示，今年将在可能的情况下进行适度回购。等待花旗集团的转型计划可能需要数年时间，这将是另一次“价值游戏”。坚定不移“摘苹果”巴菲特主义的一个重要基石是专注。不要过分强调多元化的重要性，也不要为了多元化而多元化。一季度末，伯克希尔十大重仓股集中度高达87.20%。其中作为“压舱石”的第一重仓股仍然是苹果公司，一季度增持之后占其股票投资组合的比例约43%。作为科技行业巨无霸，苹果公司的财务实力和盈利能力毋庸置疑。而巴菲特除了认可库克“将苹果产品的用户视为自己的初恋”的风格外，更十分激赏库克的股票回购策略。2021年伯克希尔并没有增持苹果股份，但因为苹果公司的回购和股息，让包括伯克希尔在内的投资者“不必动一根指头”就增加了收益。去年伯克希尔从苹果公司得到了惊人的7.85亿美元股息。在2016年建仓苹果之前，巴菲特给外界的印象之一是他最大的盲区是科技股，因为在少有地购入科技股IBM之后，其股价一路下跌，伯克希尔损失惨重。而买入苹果也并非巴菲特的主意。他对此的解释是“库姆斯和韦斯勒都可以在没有先咨询我的情况下，作出投资决定”。据报道，这两位目前主管伯克希尔投资的托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦斯勒，正是当巴菲特退休时将接管所有选股职责的未来舵手。一季度增持另一个科技股——动视暴雪则是巴菲特的个人决定，主要基于微软宣布收购动视暴雪的计划。巴菲特曾说，如果要在靠投飞镖选股票但不收管理费的猴子和华尔街人士里选一个，我一直都会选猴子。一直号称自己“不擅长择时”的巴菲特，带领伯克希尔从1965年位于罗丹的一家濒临破产的纺织厂，成长为市值7600亿美元的金融帝国，年化收益达到惊人的20.1%。而他也并不担心伯克希尔的未来。巴菲特坚称，没有理由担心他离任后公司何去何从，企业文化占公司的99%。“如果我们有同样的文化，我们从现在开始还会存在100年。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9053199150,"gmtCreate":1654491712170,"gmtModify":1676535457034,"author":{"id":"4090831202061700","authorId":"4090831202061700","name":"自由人飞翔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072e647441a312206d4ec42863bca96","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090831202061700","authorIdStr":"4090831202061700"},"htmlText":"虧的還沒賣，沒錢投資","listText":"虧的還沒賣，沒錢投資","text":"虧的還沒賣，沒錢投資","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9053199150","repostId":1189093907,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":617243024,"gmtCreate":1654481384569,"gmtModify":1676533184924,"author":{"id":"3574341550753694","authorId":"3574341550753694","name":"cammietang90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574341550753694","authorIdStr":"3574341550753694"},"htmlText":"Pls like, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Pls like, thank 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