Guotai Haitong Securities has issued a research report initiating coverage on KEYMED BIO-B (02162), assigning a Buy rating and a target price of HK$138.91. The valuation, derived using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) absolute valuation method, translates to a target of 120.85 Chinese yuan, equivalent to HK$138.91 based on an exchange rate of 0.87 yuan per Hong Kong dollar.
Financial Projections and Key Drivers
The firm forecasts the company's revenue for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 3.09 billion yuan, 2.156 billion yuan, and 3.085 billion yuan, respectively. The significant revenue surge projected for 2026 is primarily attributed to a $257 million upfront payment KEYMED BIO-B is expected to receive as a shareholder in Ouro. Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is forecasted at 1.105 billion yuan, a loss of 63 million yuan, and a profit of 364 million yuan.
Pipeline Strengths and Commercial Strategy
The report highlights CM310, the first domestic and second globally approved IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody, which has secured approval and national reimbursement for three indications: moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (AD), chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), and seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR). The analysts believe CM310 is well-positioned to capture differentiated demand in the nasal disease market and achieve rapid sales growth following its inclusion in the national reimbursement drug list. CM512, noted as the world's first long-acting TSLP × IL-13 bispecific antibody, has met all primary endpoints in its Phase I trial for moderate-to-severe AD, positioning it as a potential next-generation blockbuster in autoimmune diseases.
Validated Business Development Model
KEYMED BIO-B has consistently validated its pipeline value through multiple out-licensing (BD) deals, establishing a long-term return structure involving upfront payments, milestones, sales royalties, and equity interests. A notable case is CM336, which completed a full cycle from asset licensing and overseas incubation to the outright acquisition of a dedicated NewCo by a leading global pharmaceutical company. This represents a rare successful example in China's autoimmune innovation sector where a NewCo model has achieved staged value verification and exit. The acquisition of Ouro by Gilead for a total consideration of $2.175 billion has driven a revaluation of the underlying assets and facilitated an equity exit. The analysts view BD as a crucial pathway for the company to accelerate asset value realization and mitigate downstream development risks.
Robust R&D Platform and Early-Stage Pipeline
Leveraging systematic and diversified innovation technology platforms, KEYMED BIO-B has developed multi-dimensional R&D capabilities across antibodies, ADCs, T-cell engager bispecific antibodies, oligonucleotide delivery, blood-brain barrier delivery, and small molecules. This supports the company's ongoing new drug research and innovative molecular design, with over 50 projects currently in preclinical development. The report suggests that next-generation pipelines, such as the Aβ monoclonal antibody, warrant particular attention.
Investment Risks to Consider
The report concludes by outlining several risk factors, including potential delays in the clinical trials of core pipeline candidates, slower-than-expected product commercialization, challenges in market promotion and sales execution, competitive risks from innovative drugs targeting the same pathways, changes in global pharmaceutical policies, and the risk of delays in external collaborations.
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