On May 14th, Chen Guo, Deputy Director of the Research Institute and Chief Strategist at East Money Information Co.,Ltd., shared his latest perspective, offering a sobering reminder amidst the current fervor for AI investments. He stated that while he firmly believes AI will transform the world and serves as the core theme of this bull market, investors must not become "intoxicated" by this AI-driven rally. No matter how significant the industrial transformation, the laws of a bull market still apply: those who lose their sobriety will ultimately pay the price.
Chen Guo pointed out that major U.S. tech giants are supporting and driving the bull market in U.S. and even global tech stocks through high growth rates in both earnings (including cost savings) and capital expenditures. The strong performance growth in downstream AI agents, AI cloud computing, and the upstream AI hardware infrastructure chain indicates this AI bull market has fundamental support from a "silicon-based economy."
However, as the scale of this silicon-based economy expands, it is crucial to monitor whether its growth rate will eventually be pulled down by the "gravitational force" of the carbon-based economy. Chen Guo emphasized that regardless of how vast the imagined prospects of a silicon-based AI era might be in the medium term, profits ultimately still come from the carbon-based humans on Earth.
Similar to the internet and industrial revolutions, while theoretically human productivity could see substantial gains "with AI," investors still face the immediate reality: even Americans, with the strongest global purchasing power, have limited overall income growth and are already struggling with rising living costs. Factors like energy cost shocks are further worsening these conditions.
Chen Guo concluded by reminding investors that while many believe the carbon-based economy is not profitable and choose to go long on the highly profitable silicon-based economy, this is indeed the current situation. However, since the ultimate foundation and payer for the man-made silicon-based economy remains the carbon-based economy, it is essential to remain vigilant, closely monitor changes, and not become intoxicated.
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