Apple will release its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results (covering the period from June 28 to September 26, 2026) on November 2, Eastern Time, and will hold a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern Time on November 2.
At this conference call, Apple's current Chief Executive Officer, John Ternus, will preside. This is the first time Ternus has participated in an earnings release as CEO. This appearance marks Apple's formal entry into the Ternus era.
It should be noted that the fourth quarter is usually an important period for Apple product launches, but the new products released in early September can only contribute a few weeks of sales, and their full impact will not be reflected until the first fiscal quarter.
FY2026 Q3 Review
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Apple Inc. reported revenue of $109.417 billion, up 16% year over year; net income of $29.789 billion, up 27% year over year. Diluted earnings per share were $2.02, up 29% year over year.
In the quarter, Apple's iPhone sales rose to $54.252 billion from $44.582 billion in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year, while services revenue increased to $30.739 billion from $27.423 billion.
Segment highlights:
iPhone: $54.3bn, +22% YoY, driven by continued iPhone 17 demand.
Mac: $10.4bn, +29% YoY, boosted by MacBook Neo and pricing changes.
Services: $30.7bn, +12% YoY, below some expectations.
iPad: $61.9bn, -5.9% YoY, weighed by a tough prior-year base.
Wearables, Home and Accessories: $78.8bn, +6.5% YoY.
FY2026 Q4 Expectations
The September quarter should reflect the first partial impact of iPhone 18, the new foldable iPhone Duo, and broad hardware price increases, but growth may be constrained by supply limits, memory cost inflation and FX headwinds.
Currently, the market consensus expects Apple's fourth-quarter revenue to be $113.2 billion, up 10.73% year over year; EPS of $1.982, up 11.87% year over year; and Non-GAAP EBIT of $34.45 billion.
Key drivers for Q4:
iPhone supply constraints may cap shipments despite strong demand.
iPhone 18 Pro pricing and the iPhone Duo launch could support ASPs.
Memory cost inflation is pressuring hardware margins.
FX headwinds are expected to reduce revenue growth by roughly 2.5 percentage points.
Services should remain resilient, with growth supported by iCloud+, AppleCare+ and subscription bundles.
Key Investment Themes
iPhone cycle and new form factors
iPhone remains Apple’s largest revenue driver. The market will watch early iPhone 18 demand, the premium mix from iPhone 18 Pro, and whether the foldable iPhone Duo can create a meaningful upgrade cycle. Initial iPhone Duo preorders sold out quickly, but supply remains limited.
Services resilience
Services are shifting away from App Store dependence. Goldman Sachs expects roughly 10% services growth in Q4, with stronger contributions from iCloud+, AppleCare+ and subscriptions, while App Store growth appears to be slowing.
AI hardware and Siri upgrade
Apple is expanding its AI wearables strategy, including camera-equipped AirPods, an AI pendant and AI smart glasses planned for around 2027. The upgraded Siri and Apple Intelligence are central to making these devices useful rather than gimmicky.
Home and ecosystem expansion
Apple is also broadening its home portfolio with a smart home hub, updated Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini 2 and partner smart-home accessories. These products could strengthen ecosystem lock-in even if near-term revenue contributions are modest.
Margin and supply-chain risks
The biggest near-term risks are memory price inflation, advanced-node capacity constraints, FX pressure and regulatory scrutiny. These factors may limit EPS upside even if revenue beats consensus.
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